Politically parabolic.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Dave Taylor

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Oh, I figure it's time for another thread. I am putting a 6 month window on my view here but I think the fed may have finally over done it. I'm not making predictions other than I don't think what the fed has done over the last years will be able to be covered up for much longer. I don't believe in a soft landing. This would be like making the Titanic make a u turn in 5 seconds. It never happens. I think the breakout of gold long term as well as silver is telling a story. The way the dollar has gone parabolic in the last few months. One has to give. Is the dollar going to collapse or the markets collapse? Bonds (TLT) seem to have decoupled from the S&P. I am only trading futures currently so it doesn't really have an affect on me but I feel like a big move incoming soon. A mean reversion of sorts but not sure what will give. Personally I think the current office(dems) are stimulating markets as much as they can so(like they normally do) the market fails once the republicans are in office(it's looking like they will be with current polls). So, leave markets at ATH and people in all time debt then the fall lands on the next ones in office.
How do you guys feel? Are prices getting too high? Are current mortgage rates sustainable? Can Eric the engineer that needed a $500k house 4 years ago with a 2.6 interest rate now afford the same house at $1.1 million with a 6% plus rate? This doesn't affect people who bought pre covid really and even ones who bought right before rate hikes are ok but anyone looking to get in currently the prices just seem outrageous. Let's hear your thoughts.
 
Hi Dave. Why do you need surgery?


From a much higher 30 year view, these mortgage rates are not that bad. Everything is getting more expensive. That’s the way it is.
 
jShort said:
Hi Dave. Why do you need surgery?


From a much higher 30 year view, these mortgage rates are not that bad. Everything is getting more expensive. That’s the way it is.
Click to expand...
I had caught a stomach bug after a ride about a month ago. Long story short, I ended up a vaso vagle syncope (passed out) and fell from standing height onto my face on the hardwood floor Fractured my orbital floor and it’s at risk of my eye dropping down/back.

You’re correct, the problem is the prices and mortgage rates are high which wasn’t the case in the past.
 
I don't think prices are getting higher.... when measured in money. But when measured in currency, sure. Remember that currency was the portable substitute for money. Currency was backed by money. When you see higher prices (measured in dollars) it could mean things cost more, but it could also mean that the dollar is worth less. The Federal Reserve was created to maintain the value of the currency. Today that currency buys only 3% of what it bought when the Federal Reserve was created. As the currency value declines, we buy stocks and take investment risk (and pay tax on any gain) just to try to keep pace with the engineered decline in dollar value.

But what if we as individuals decided to make currency backed by assets, since the government won't. We could as soon as we get dollars, buy hard assets, and as soon as we need to spend dollars, sell hard assets. Here's an experiment I have done. You have your brokerage or §401k statements for each December, for years back. You could look up what a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold cost on those dates. For my experiment, I started with the year 2013: the last time I got a paycheck.

Had I put my dollars into oil, I would have done worse, as oil was expensive in 2013 and is cheaper today in dollars. Had I put my dollars into gold, I would be far better off. Creating my individual gold standard would leave me much richer than the dollars buying stocks method I actually employed. Gold is up 78% the last five years. I'm not recommending this as a strategy, but as a way to shift our thinking about money vs currency, and drive home that the government prints currency, not gold nor oil.

We have been trained to see our homes appreciate, to see our §401ks grow, and our salaries increase, instead of seeing the decline in purchasing power of the dollars these are all measured in. The government wants to have 2% inflation, but wants to print 40% of the dollars it spends each year. I don't see an easy way out. Ours is not the only government with more debt that it can possibly repay. A jubilee would work as a one time confiscation of wealth, and governments could wipe clean their debts and continue their fiscal bad habits.
 
Fire Lord Jim said:
I don't think prices are getting higher.... when measured in money. But when measured in currency, sure. Remember that currency was the portable substitute for money. Currency was backed by money. When you see higher prices (measured in dollars) it could mean things cost more, but it could also mean that the dollar is worth less. The Federal Reserve was created to maintain the value of the currency. Today that currency buys only 3% of what it bought when the Federal Reserve was created. As the currency value declines, we buy stocks and take investment risk (and pay tax on any gain) just to try to keep pace with the engineered decline in dollar value.

But what if we as individuals decided to make currency backed by assets, since the government won't. We could as soon as we get dollars, buy hard assets, and as soon as we need to spend dollars, sell hard assets. Here's an experiment I have done. You have your brokerage or §401k statements for each December, for years back. You could look up what a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold cost on those dates. For my experiment, I started with the year 2013: the last time I got a paycheck.

Had I put my dollars into oil, I would have done worse, as oil was expensive in 2013 and is cheaper today in dollars. Had I put my dollars into gold, I would be far better off. Creating my individual gold standard would leave me much richer than the dollars buying stocks method I actually employed. Gold is up 78% the last five years. I'm not recommending this as a strategy, but as a way to shift our thinking about money vs currency, and drive home that the government prints currency, not gold nor oil.

We have been trained to see our homes appreciate, to see our §401ks grow, and our salaries increase, instead of seeing the decline in purchasing power of the dollars these are all measured in. The government wants to have 2% inflation, but wants to print 40% of the dollars it spends each year. I don't see an easy way out. Ours is not the only government with more debt that it can possibly repay. A jubilee would work as a one time confiscation of wealth, and governments could wipe clean their debts and continue their fiscal bad habits.
Click to expand...
https://www.usa.gov/currency#:~:text=The United States dollar is,that make up U.S. currency. You’ve broken the internet now…
 
stb222 said:
But whats the real question Dave? Was moving to maryland not the savior you had hoped? Are you looking to move again? Some place even “cheaper”?

If you arent in the market, who cares about home prices and interest rates.
Click to expand...
Just making observations. I’m sure some fomo money is heading into markets but the past tells the truth…major corrections always happen. When will it be is my question? Like I said, just trading intraday and waiting to see when the next batch of foreclosures come.
 
US dollar is breaking out. If it holds this next couple weeks it can be a macro change in the markets. I think it signifies the fed raised rates too much and now rate cuts will need to come faster but may not do the job.
 
Last edited:
Well let's see. Wealthy people don't like to lose? Wealthy people makes the decisions.
Do what the wealthy people do.
 
Patrick said:
Well let's see. Wealthy people don't like to lose? Wealthy people makes the decisions.
Do what the wealthy people do.
Click to expand...
You're correct. I generally don't trade macro moves directly. These are more of me noticing a larger shift going on. There seems to be some heavy demand happening for the dollar, gold, and nuclear energy. All while the S&P 500 is at all time highs on declining volume. Also, some wealthy people are lucky and some make poor decisions until they are not wealthy any longer. Being risky is part of getting wealthy.
 
Dave Taylor said:
You're correct. I generally don't trade macro moves directly. These are more of me noticing a larger shift going on. There seems to be some heavy demand happening for the dollar, gold, and nuclear energy. All while the S&P 500 is at all time highs on declining volume. Also, some wealthy people are lucky and some make poor decisions until they are not wealthy any longer. Being risky is part of getting wealthy.
Click to expand...

volume has to decline for prices to rise.

Wasn't refering to normal wealthy people that save their money, and can afford a nice house, and fancy car.
I mean really wealthy - the S&P could take a 50% haircut and they'd still be wealthy - just not popular.
 
Last edited:
Fire Lord Jim said:
I don't think prices are getting higher.... when measured in money. But when measured in currency, sure. Remember that currency was the portable substitute for money. Currency was backed by money. When you see higher prices (measured in dollars) it could mean things cost more, but it could also mean that the dollar is worth less. The Federal Reserve was created to maintain the value of the currency. Today that currency buys only 3% of what it bought when the Federal Reserve was created. As the currency value declines, we buy stocks and take investment risk (and pay tax on any gain) just to try to keep pace with the engineered decline in dollar value.

But what if we as individuals decided to make currency backed by assets, since the government won't. We could as soon as we get dollars, buy hard assets, and as soon as we need to spend dollars, sell hard assets. Here's an experiment I have done. You have your brokerage or §401k statements for each December, for years back. You could look up what a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold cost on those dates. For my experiment, I started with the year 2013: the last time I got a paycheck.

Had I put my dollars into oil, I would have done worse, as oil was expensive in 2013 and is cheaper today in dollars. Had I put my dollars into gold, I would be far better off. Creating my individual gold standard would leave me much richer than the dollars buying stocks method I actually employed. Gold is up 78% the last five years. I'm not recommending this as a strategy, but as a way to shift our thinking about money vs currency, and drive home that the government prints currency, not gold nor oil.

We have been trained to see our homes appreciate, to see our §401ks grow, and our salaries increase, instead of seeing the decline in purchasing power of the dollars these are all measured in. The government wants to have 2% inflation, but wants to print 40% of the dollars it spends each year. I don't see an easy way out. Ours is not the only government with more debt that it can possibly repay. A jubilee would work as a one time confiscation of wealth, and governments could wipe clean their debts and continue their fiscal bad habits.
Click to expand...
inflation is the hidden tax.
I think the only thing saving the dollar is that Europe is in a similar situation so there's not a safer alternative to the dollar.
 
JPark said:
inflation is the hidden tax.
I think the only thing saving the dollar is that Europe is in a similar situation so there's not a safer alternative to the dollar.
Click to expand...
What's saving the dollar is that, despite people pumping bitcoin, gold and the USD are the STILL the reserve currencies of the world. China, Russia, Brasil etc can all collaborate but when the world gets scared gold and the dollar get bought.
 
What is everyone's thoughts on this? Honest mistake or more of big media creating tension between the people? How does this crap even happen at this level of corporate America? It's almost as if corporate America is purposely starting a civil war(no, I don't think it would ever happen but if it did I'd have to give the upper hand to the side that has more guns. Just crazy think that this happens on the largest news media outlet in the country. https://www.yahoo.com/news/abc-acci...j9hiUuE0D6tYjCa_Sp3RfOgqnedVupd_Nrv5TFCZ3Cdgj
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom