This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

68nova200 said:
I still don't understand why gvernment is going into all out panic mode for something that has a 97% mild case rate with a very obvious extremely low infection rate. Completely absurd.
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Keep an eye on Sweden. The next week or two should show how well a strategy of minimal mandatory restrictions works. I say that with no sarcasm. I am genuinely curious on this as well.

Santapez said:
I can't say if it's absurd or not, I'm not an expert, nor pretend to be.

However when I look at the #s, the fact that we're leveling out and/or dropping, are hospitals are able to keep up, I'm not sure why we're tightening the restrictions, if not bringing them closer to where we were 2 weeks ago.

Since we can't 100% stop the virus and are trying to minimize a 2nd or 3rd wave, along with building a herd immunity (Vaccine is off the table of realistic probabilities) I'm not sure why we're not allowing the population that is low-risk to be minimally exposed. Instead we're stopping more construction, closing public parks, etc.

In the end it seems this will drag this out longer.

I'm willing to hear opposing viewpoints to this. It seems we went from flattening the curve to keep it under our hospital capacity, to flattening it as low as possible, which widens it
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So the whole strategy of physical distancing is the government applying a throttle. In the end I think we all need to get it or get a vaccine. We need herd immunity. While some hospitals are busy and at capacity, others are not. If you need care it is available. Doctors aren't playing God like they are/were in Italy. So I guess I agree with you. I think they pumped the brakes a little too much.

------------------------

On an aside, I am probably a Covidiot (thanks to whomever coined that term here, really nice work /sarcasm). I'm still waiting on my test results but I will say that the fever, chills, body aches, and overall fatigue were far worse than any flu I have ever had. I did't lift my head off the pillow for 3 full days. I don't think anyone is brushing this thing off but I'll just reiterate that it is legit. You don't want it. Well, maybe. Now that I am recovering (3rd day without a fever medicine free) I am actually happy that I will have antibodies/potential immunity, at least for some period of time, hopefully.
 
Tim said:
Keep an eye on Sweden. The next week or two should show how well a strategy of minimal mandatory restrictions works. I say that with no sarcasm. I am genuinely curious on this as well.
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This is legit - but will they be testing everyone that has symptoms? Why would they?

I'll hypothesize that it will be a more "stay home unless you need urgent care,
Isolate the best you can."

Glad you are feeling better and on-the-mend.
 
Patrick said:
This is legit - but will they be testing everyone that has symptoms? Why would they?

I'll hypothesize that it will be a more "stay home unless you need urgent care,
Isolate the best you can."

Glad you are feeling better and on-the-mend.
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Thanks.

I am not trying to put words in your mouth so I'll ask a question. Do you think Sweden will impose restrictions? As of now they have none. Restaurants and bars are "business as usual." They are encouraging WFH but it isn't required. They are simply saying be smart and try to stay safe. If they remain that "loose" it could be a valuable data set. Either they will prove that they made a horrible decision with very grave consequences or that the rest of us decimated our economies needlessly. I get that the consequences to their strategy could be horrific but I am interested in the data.
 
Bike N Gear said:
If this is how testing is going on in parts of NJ I don't see our economy opening ant time soon.

www.nytimes.com

3 Vans, 6 Coolers, a Plane, a Storm and 2 Labs: A Nasal Swab’s Journey (Published 2020)

The backlog for Covid-19 testing in New Jersey and other parts of the country is getting worse, not better. From the nose of a patient in a mile-long line to a phone call days later, bottlenecks thwart its progress.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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I was tested last Tuesday. I was told I'd have results in 3 days. I still don't have them. I followed up and was told the labs are backed up due to high volume. Duh. I didn't read the article but I assume we drastically increased the testing capacity without increasing our ability to analyze the tests? Seems about right.
 
Bike N Gear said:
If this is how testing is going on in parts of NJ I don't see our economy opening ant time soon.

www.nytimes.com

3 Vans, 6 Coolers, a Plane, a Storm and 2 Labs: A Nasal Swab’s Journey (Published 2020)

The backlog for Covid-19 testing in New Jersey and other parts of the country is getting worse, not better. From the nose of a patient in a mile-long line to a phone call days later, bottlenecks thwart its progress.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Saliva testing with 1-2 day turnaround coming to edison and RVCC

patch.com

NJ Site First In U.S. To Offer Drive-Thru Coronavirus Saliva Test

UPDATE: Gov. Phil Murphy touted a groundbreaking coronavirus saliva test developed in NJ that will be available on Wednesday.
patch.com patch.com
 
Patrick said:
this goes against the density theory?
Since confirmed is a proxy for actual, the chance of getting it in NY/NJ is higher,
if everyone across the country is doing the distancing thing "the same"

In that case, the places which are less dense, with fewer seeds, should see slower growth?

With the ring of higher % growth surrounding NYC/NJ, it may be more of a wave that is going to spread?
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Against density? How so - it is now very obvious that there is NY/NJ and everywhere else. Those 2 states are the only ones that are approaching a 1% infection incidence - most other states are less than an order of magnitude lower and with their growth rates and s.d. will never catch up.
 
Tim said:
Thanks.

I am not trying to put words in your mouth so I'll ask a question. Do you think Sweden will impose restrictions? As of now they have none. Restaurants and bars are "business as usual." They are encouraging WFH but it isn't required. They are simply saying be smart and try to stay safe. If they remain that "loose" it could be a valuable data set. Either they will prove that they made a horrible decision with very grave consequences or that the rest of us decimated our economies needlessly. I get that the consequences to their strategy could be horrific but I am interested in the data.
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Sweden is very curious, cases per day over the last week average 500, deaths declining. @Patrick seems to think they will have 5M infections in 3 months but unless something dramatic happens soon, I don't see it.
 
rick81721 said:
Against density? How so - it is now very obvious that there is NY/NJ and everywhere else. Those 2 states are the only ones that are approaching a 1% infection incidence - most other states are less than an order of magnitude lower and with their growth rates and s.d. will never catch up.
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SD gov said no lock-down for his state. they are at 0.1% - in 4 days they will be at 0.2%,
If you lived there, would continue to do BAU? or self isolate?

we'll see - you made a bold prediction there.
 
rick81721 said:
What?? You predicted "all infected in 3 months"!
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the article said 3 months -
you jumped to sweden, put out some numbers, and i explained how it might happen.
and as i mentioned, why test if they are just going to let it ride?
 
Patrick said:
the article said 3 months -
you jumped to sweden, put out some numbers, and i explained how it might happen.
and as i mentioned, why test if they are just going to let it ride?
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You claimed most would be infected in 3 months without lockdown. I asked for a model, based on the data, that gets Sweden there. You gave several responses to do so, and as of right now, they aren't panning out. So put yourself out there, what's your prediction for Sweden??
 
rick81721 said:
You claimed most would be infected in 3 months without lockdown. I asked for a model, based on the data, that gets Sweden there. You gave several responses to do so, and as of right now, they aren't panning out. So put yourself out there, what's your prediction for Sweden??
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Prediction:
Their healthcare system collapses in 45 days if they don't change their mind.

you said get me to 5M with a doubling every 10 days in 3 months starting at 10,000.
conveniently it worked out exactly (and i new 2^9 is 512 cause computers)

i did not quote any numbers, i referred to some reading that said they expected it to play out in 3 months.
i interpreted that as infected/resolved. I'll try to find the article.

Sweden is in "non mandatory" mode. They are advising to avoid crowds, and use best judgement.

This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

cause that is how conspiracy theories start, and if they are pricking fingers for blood, and it gets fed into a machine....... or they are swabbing cheeks/nasal passages.... they claimed the baseball drug testing was going to be anonymous.... Ask Bill Clinton. I meant technically related...
www.mtbnj.com www.mtbnj.com
 
Patrick said:
Prediction:
Their healthcare system collapses in 45 days if they don't change their mind.

you said get me to 5M with a doubling every 10 days in 3 months starting at 10,000.
conveniently it worked out exactly (and i new 2^9 is 512 cause computers)

i did not quote any numbers, i referred to some reading that said they expected it to play out in 3 months.
i interpreted that as infected/resolved. I'll try to find the article.

Sweden is in "non mandatory" mode. They are advising to avoid crowds, and use best judgement.

This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

cause that is how conspiracy theories start, and if they are pricking fingers for blood, and it gets fed into a machine....... or they are swabbing cheeks/nasal passages.... they claimed the baseball drug testing was going to be anonymous.... Ask Bill Clinton. I meant technically related...
www.mtbnj.com www.mtbnj.com
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45 days? We shall see. I want to see 5 more days of data before making predictions, but if by sunday they are still in a place where their 10 day ave of new cases is around 500/day, I don't see it. Clearly Sweden's low population density is having an effect here, but I want to get more granular and see what's happening in Stockholm too.
 
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