This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

xc62701 said:
I would tend to agree with the opening if we were all smart. That has proven otherwise. As soon as you say we will open something 1%, many in the public would interpret this as being over and go back to daily life. It's better safe than sorry it seems and I'm ok with that. Schools should 100% not be going back this year. There is NO WAY to social distance given busses, large classes, and even just passing the the hallways. Even though it for the most part wouldn't affect most of the kids, if there is transmission then their families will be put at risk. The economy does need to be open, but schools do not have to be part of that plan for now.
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I'm thinking more of smaller stuff. Non-Essential construction, state parks. Then non-essential non-retail businesses at 1/4 capacity, then 1/2, 3/4 then 1/1. Don't leave the choice up to people, need to give firm direction.

I agree with you on schools. I don't think it's realistic to even consider anything until September. The real struggle there is what to do with parents having to go to work, etc.
 
rick81721 said:
There are decreases in new cases per day, deaths per day and hospitalizations per day. Do you think everyone should wait until there are no new cases before opening back up?? It will be a very deliberate and phased re-opening - I don't understand why people seem to think it's going to be a blanket "everyone go back to normal" situation.
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I know that there are multiple sources of information, but looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and deaths per day in US or daily new cases I'd be hard pressed to say that there's a real trend of decrease. Or are you referring to a specific state? Again, many models, assumptions and data sources.

Also, "Do you think everyone should wait until there are no new cases before opening back up??" I did not say that or anything like it. I'm just questioning why, even if we've begun over the past few days to see a downward trend (which I'm not convinced of), that means that we should start making changes from the baseline set of policies that seem to be working.
 
ebarker9 said:
I know that there are multiple sources of information, but looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and deaths per day in US or daily new cases I'd be hard pressed to say that there's a real trend of decrease. Or are you referring to a specific state? Again, many models, assumptions and data sources.

Also, "Do you think everyone should wait until there are no new cases before opening back up??" I did not say that or anything like it. I'm just questioning why, even if we've begun over the past few days to see a downward trend (which I'm not convinced of), that means that we should start making changes from the baseline set of policies that seem to be working.
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I've been using https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey

My belief is the #s regarding who has it is meaningless because we're not doing thorough and plentiful testing. And it doesn't really help us unless we do testing and find out we have herd immunity.

The data points that to me work for a trend are hospital bed usage & deaths. They're a true enough figure for trailing amounts of exposure. And in the end, isn't hospital beds the entire purpose of flattening the curve? That's the curve most people refer to. At first it was ventilators and beds, but now it's beds.

If we're leveled off, it has to drop mostly because less people can get it. As time goes on more people have it, recover or die. We're also now finding out there's a large population that's asymptomatic.

Some issues I do think that aren't getting enough attention regarding opening things back up is keeping up with medical supplies. Medicine, masks, gloves, etc. If we can't stay ahead of antibiotics and other such drugs that are running out, that could be another problem. Run out of critical items and things go to hell quick. It's why we were so concerned with flattening the curve under the max beds & ventilators. Once you run out it's pretty much death past that point for anyone unable to get those services.

One thing I don't know is if "beds" includes everything that goes along with them. Hospital staff, etc.
 
Mahnken said:
Isn't that a little like comparing apples to oranges though? Their cities are less densely populated, they are healthier than Americans, they are far more likely than Americans to listen to social distancing and isolation recommendations from their government... Still curious to see how it all pans out.
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Who's comparing Sweden to US? The interest here is the comparison in efficacy of government-mandated lockdowns vs a more laissez-faire approach. Many (some here) predicted disaster in Sweden - so far, that dire prediction doesn't seem to be panning out. We shall see
 
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rick81721 said:
I'm 60+ and am not nor do I plan to stay home. I have no comorbidities - perhaps if I did it would be a different story.

Vaccine - what's your definition of "near future" - early next year is likely. Oddly enough, the one factor that will most slow down a vaccine is if covid disappears during the summer - we need a large population of circulating disease to confirm efficacy.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rately-infecting-volunteers-not-so-fast-some#
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I wouldn't force you to stay home. It's a risk you're willing to take, and I agree you're much less likely to get sick and die than someone your age who is unhealthy. You're probably much less at risk than people half your age who are unhealthy.

Why do you say it's likely? I keep hearing that it's unlikely. Even for a regular vaccine that's an incredibly short time frame. We have no vaccines currently for a Corona Virus.
 
Santapez said:
Why do you say it's likely? I keep hearing that it's unlikely. Even for a regular vaccine that's an incredibly short time frame. We have no vaccines currently for a Corona Virus.
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I think it's very likely. Scientists like a challenge - and there is no bigger or more important challenge in human clinical research than this right now. This is a good read on just one of those working on a vaccine:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk...y-covid-19-vaccine-trials-dedication-n1181626

We don't have vaccines for corona viruses now because most cause the common cold, there are hundreds of viruses that cause colds, so there is no real need.
 
Santapez said:
I'm thinking more of smaller stuff. Non-Essential construction, state parks. Then non-essential non-retail businesses at 1/4 capacity, then 1/2, 3/4 then 1/1. Don't leave the choice up to people, need to give firm direction.

I agree with you on schools. I don't think it's realistic to even consider anything until September. The real struggle there is what to do with parents having to go to work, etc.
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The same thing schools always do, tell the parents to go fuck themselves....rain storm, snow in the forecast, were closed...eat shit.
 
UtahJoe said:
She was just making the point that she loves her job and loves being with her friends at work...however, im sure she wouldnt work for very long without being paid...But moreso that shes not concerned with working on covid patients. Oh, she said since April 9th, they are now getting hazard pay.


Is what it is, but i would 100% send my kid back to school tomorrow and risk any illness....what is happening to him right now is in my opinion worse than him maybe giving me or my wife covid. My wife has had to admit a total of 0 kids his age with covid, so im not too worried about him getting sick.
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My wife wouldn't have an issue if the hospital was better prepared, if she didn't feel safe she has the green light to take any action she sees fit and I'll leave it at that

regarding hazard pay
the Hazard pay is a 1/3rd of what ST Clair's is paying, AH nurses would need to work 400 hours to get the hazard pay RWJ paid in one lump sum last month I wouldn't be surprised if AH makes pay cuts of freezes raises after this.

I'm keeping my son out as long as possible.
 
rick81721 said:
I think it's very likely. Scientists like a challenge - and there is no bigger or more important challenge in human clinical research than this right now. This is a good read on just one of those working on a vaccine:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk...y-covid-19-vaccine-trials-dedication-n1181626

We don't have vaccines for corona viruses now because most cause the common cold, there are hundreds of viruses that cause colds, so there is no real need.
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Nearly 40 years and billions of dollars later, we don't have an HIV vaccine.

SARS-COV-1 vaccine was in the works but they couldn't make it successful. I'm sure there was a large financial aspect to that.
 
The Governor of Slacktown said:
My wife wouldn't have an issue if the hospital was better prepared, if she didn't feel safe she has the green light to take any action she sees fit and I'll leave it at that

regarding hazard pay
the Hazard pay is a 1/3rd of what ST Clair's is paying, AH nurses would need to work 400 hours to get the hazard pay RWJ paid in one lump sum last month I wouldn't be surprised if AH makes pay cuts of freezes raises after this.

I'm keeping my son out as long as possible.
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You know what these other hospitals are actually paying? I mean my wife doesn't even know what her hazard pay amounts to yet
 
UtahJoe said:
You know what these other hospitals are actually paying? I mean my wife doesn't even know what her hazard pay amounts to yet
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The hazard pay amount went out in an email last week, we know nurses at other hospitals and they weren't very private about their announcements
 
Is there a site that tracks new reported cases in NJ and shows all the way back since the the first one?
 
Santapez said:
Nearly 40 years and billions of dollars later, we don't have an HIV vaccine.

SARS-COV-1 vaccine was in the works but they couldn't make it successful. I'm sure there was a large financial aspect to that.
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HIV is a completely different virus - it suppresses the immune system which makes it uniquely difficult to make a vaccine. SARS-COV1 only infected 8000 and killed 800 globally - no one will put effort into a vaccine for a disease like that.
 
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