This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

thegock said:
Real death rate in Florida reported yesterday was 80 (a new high?) and today they reported 5,511 new cases (a new high by 1,700.) Meanwhile, my muse, @Monkey Soup hasn't gotten back to me on the overstatement of the C19 death rate. I can't wait.
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nope, 63 deaths yesterday, 43 today. Still no change over the last six weeks. Finding many young, asymptomatic cases - maybe from the protests?

It will be interesting to see what happens here in nj as everything starts to reopen. Cases will go up. And when will NJ start to test people without symptoms? No doubt there are many infected here they don't know about.
 
rick81721 said:
nope, 63 deaths yesterday, 43 today. Still no change over the last six weeks. Finding many young, asymptomatic cases - maybe from the protests?

It will be interesting to see what happens here in nj as everything starts to reopen. Cases will go up. And when will NJ start to test people without symptoms? No doubt there are many infected here they don't know about.
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NJ had been testing people without symptoms for a while. Anyone that wants to get tested can go get tested.
 
rick81721 said:
nope, 63 deaths yesterday, 43 today.
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I see the 43 today, but saw 80 yesterday on worldometers.

Also spoke to Dr. Joe today about the excess death analysis page by the CDC that @mfennell cited above. Their analysis says there are between 20k-49k of excess deaths in the US not diagnosed as C19 since 2/1/20.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

He said that the inference he believes is that a portion of those are undiagnosed C19, and that deaths are underreported. Have to check with @Monkey Soup on this, doe.
 
thegock said:
I see the 43 today, but saw 80 yesterday on worldometers.

Also spoke to Dr. Joe today about the excess death analysis page by the CDC that @mfennell cited above. Their analysis says there are between 20k-49k of excess deaths in the US not diagnosed as C19 since 2/1/20.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

He said that the inference he believes is that a portion of those are undiagnosed C19, and that deaths are underreported. Have to check with @Monkey Soup on this, doe.
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worldometer tends to clump reports from several days. figures above are direct from FL DOH.

no clue about excess deaths. in any event,, won't significantly change the real death rate.
 
rick81721 said:
worldometer tends to clump reports from several days. figures above are direct from FL DOH.

Got it on worldometer. Dr. Joe said that Florida only counts state residents who die, and not those with out of state residence, and he believes Florida is undercounting.

no clue about excess deaths. in any event,, won't significantly change the real death rate.
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Gee, Dr. Joe said that the excess numbers were statistically significant and evidence that there is an undercount. He did also say that there could be another cause, but didn't believe so. He also asked me what @Monkey Soup thought. ?
 
Comparing Florida's Cases against Hospitalizations below (I use 7 day moving averages because of in-week volatility). What is concerning to me about Florida is this steady upward trend in new admittance into hospitals. The use of the 7 day moving average doesn't show this, but today's increase of 251 hospitalizations for COVID-19 in Florida is the highest one day increase since May 21st.
Florida COVID.png
 
And here's hospitalizations vs deaths 7 day moving averages. Sustained rising trends in hospitalizations precede rising trends in deaths, as expected. Deaths 7 Day moving average is indeed starting to rise.
Florida COVID 2.png
 
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