This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

thegock said:
BTW, Sweden with 5,420 deaths is still probably way short of herd immunity, but I will let you google the articles that I have already read.
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Thanks for the cut and paste. I don't think Sweden is close to herd immunity either, at least based on antibody studies, tho there is new evidence of T cell immunity.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237

There is something strange going on in FL - I have been following their antibody testing results for 6 weeks now (they release new data every Friday - they've now tested almost 300,000 people). Each week, the percent positive goes down. Very odd

In any event, Sweden will be interesting to follow over the next 4 weeks. If new cases and deaths continue to drop quickly, that's a pretty good indication.
 
roc said:
No doubt, as soon as everybody gets on campus, it will be business as usual for college kids. How could it not be? Only the most conscientious kids will be taking precautions, if even them! They are young, horny and invincible. I think people who think otherwise are fooling themselves. I would gamble that just about everybody who goes away to college, except for a very rare few, does something so dumb, that when they are my age(51), that they think "what the hell was I thinking". I can't believe the dumb shit I did at school.
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The problem for the young people these days is everything is documented.

I learned way more out of class than in during college. And most of that was from mistakes.
 
rick81721 said:
Thanks for the cut and paste. I don't think Sweden is close to herd immunity either, at least based on antibody studies, tho there is new evidence of T cell immunity.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237

There is something strange going on in FL - I have been following their antibody testing results for 6 weeks now (they release new data every Friday - they've now tested almost 300,000 people). Each week, the percent positive goes down. Very odd

In any event, Sweden will be interesting to follow over the next 4 weeks. If new cases and deaths continue to drop quickly, that's a pretty good indication.
Click to expand...
Herd immunity comes at quite a cost (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext) "This cannot be achieved without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems."
it IS possible; after all we eventually developed immunity to the black plague.
I can't help thinking Sweden made a Faustian choice, just google "sweden sacrificing elderly".

and as far as I understand, all the flattening, etc. just manages hospital capacity.
as long as symptoms/infection and deaths/symptom remain the same, herd immunity (i.e. 70%-90% of population has antibodies) will cost the same number of severe cases. the death rate will be somewhat lower due to better use of critical care.

I don't see this going any other way without one of these:
  • recovered people are not infectious so we can make this go away but future outbreaks are still possible
  • a vaccine.
 
roc said:
No doubt, as soon as everybody gets on campus, it will be business as usual for college kids. How could it not be? Only the most conscientious kids will be taking precautions, if even them! They are young, horny and invincible. I think people who think otherwise are fooling themselves. I would gamble that just about everybody who goes away to college, except for a very rare few, does something so dumb, that when they are my age(51), that they think "what the hell was I thinking". I can't believe the dumb shit I did at school.
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don said:
The problem for the young people these days is everything is documented.

I learned way more out of class than in during college. And most of that was from mistakes.
Click to expand...

Both right, but that is part of growing up and living at college (i.e. away from home, parents, etc.) This is another area Covid-19 is really delivering a brutal hit...
 
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stb222 said:
Actual footage of Rick trying to figure this out:
rHXfVep.gif
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Hey I actually found something. This has to be part of it:

NJ covid cases age 65 and older - 24% of total
FL covid cases age 65 and older - 14% of total

However, this I don't understand:

NJ deaths/cases/death rate ages 0 to 49 - 623/82,916/0.75%
FL deaths/cases/death rate ages 0 to 49 - 183/144,880/0.13%
 
rick81721 said:
Hey I actually found something. This has to be part of it:

NJ covid cases age 65 and older - 24% of total
FL covid cases age 65 and older - 14% of total

However, this I don't understand:

NJ deaths/cases/death rate ages 0 to 49 - 623/82,916/0.75%
FL deaths/cases/death rate ages 0 to 49 - 183/144,880/0.13%
Click to expand...
Deaths will start catching up soon. That's my prediction.
 
one piece crank said:
Both right, but that is part of growing up and living at college (i.e. away from home, parents, etc.) This is another area Covid-19 is really delivering a brutal hit...
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I have 2 that are supposed to be in college and away from home next month. I may sound like a bad parent but I really hope they have some sort of classroom learning and living arrangement on their campuses just for the critical growing up. Delivering a brutal hit indeed.
 
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