This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Bikeworks said:
No, I'm looking at it through the glasses of a RN in the thick of it from the beginning. And if we were friends on the socials I'd link you to my postings about what I am saying, WAAAYYYYYY back in May of 2020. All of my info was coming from peer-reviewed journals, and was widely ignored by those who had the same information. This turned ridiculously political, and there is a bit of conspiracy in the form of those same people unwilling to admit they were wrong. Instead it's CYA, not the pivot and move forward we deserve.

The smart thing to do was to let those who were infected and recovered out into the world while the companies were busy getting their vaccines together. This would've allowed the social impact of Covid to have been less severe (financially, mental health, etc), while also having those same people act as viral 'dead-ends.' I would posit (I don't have the training to back this up, just theory) that if the virus did start to mutate when exposed to those who had previously been exposed to all the proteins on its surface, we may have seen a lesser strain sooner. I'll go a step further and say that the naturally immune cohort could have even stopped the virus cold. Instead, the world doubled down on a vaccine-only approach in attempting to achieve herd immunity, something that never had happened before, all while also relying on tricking a virus by mimicking one protein on its surface. Again, plenty were against this approach, but were ignored, likely because of what you put forth as "the conservative thing to do." It was foolhardy. Want to accuse me of 20/20 hindsight, that's fine as you can only take my word that I knew better at the time.
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Thinking about this logically, if the death rate for the unvaccinated is 20x (CDC info for October 2021) those who are vaccinated, then if we relied on natural immunity and didn't vaccinate, how many more people would have died?

Wait, don't answer that. Dr. Joe, a microbiologist friend of mine for the last 53 years, thought: "Millions, in the US alone"

The 7DMA on January 20 per worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us was 1,988 dead bodies, but SLIK RICK said C19 was peaking on 12/19/21 which is 32 days earlier. 🙄

Kinda hard to posit dead bodies.
 
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Bikeworks said:
No, I'm looking at it through the glasses of a RN in the thick of it from the beginning. And if we were friends on the socials I'd link you to my postings about what I am saying, WAAAYYYYYY back in May of 2020. All of my info was coming from peer-reviewed journals, and was widely ignored by those who had the same information. This turned ridiculously political, and there is a bit of conspiracy in the form of those same people unwilling to admit they were wrong. Instead it's CYA, not the pivot and move forward we deserve.

The smart thing to do was to let those who were infected and recovered out into the world while the companies were busy getting their vaccines together. This would've allowed the social impact of Covid to have been less severe (financially, mental health, etc), while also having those same people act as viral 'dead-ends.' I would posit (I don't have the training to back this up, just theory) that if the virus did start to mutate when exposed to those who had previously been exposed to all the proteins on its surface, we may have seen a lesser strain sooner. I'll go a step further and say that the naturally immune cohort could have even stopped the virus cold. Instead, the world doubled down on a vaccine-only approach in attempting to achieve herd immunity, something that never had happened before, all while also relying on tricking a virus by mimicking one protein on its surface. Again, plenty were against this approach, but were ignored, likely because of what you put forth as "the conservative thing to do." It was foolhardy. Want to accuse me of 20/20 hindsight, that's fine as you can only take my word that I knew better at the time.
Click to expand...

I agree that the recovered didn't need to lock it down - how would that work? <-- is this the bigger issue? We can medical journal all we want,
deciding if something is actionable is a different monster.

Mutations are probabilistic? Not killing the host is a better survival technique? I'll go with all that E.O.Wilson stuff about mutations and mega communities.
which means i know a sliver of a finger nail.....

my omicron comment is that we could (i'm not saying should) let it play out now. Say we go about our business, with people modifying their own behaviour - some mask,
some work from home, increased personal space, etc. Some will, some won't.
Is that enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed? Gotta be some smart people that can simulate that.

BTW - thanks for being out there during this. means a lot to many. I have 4 direct friends that had extended hospital stays, and they made it cause someone cared.
 
thegock said:
Thinking about this logically, if the death rate for the unvaccinated is 20x (CDC info for October 2021) those who are vaccinated, then if we relied on natural immunity and didn't vaccinate, how many more people would have died?

Wait, don't answer that. Dr. Joe, a microbiologist friend of mine for the last 53 years, thought: "Millions, in the US alone"

The 7DMA on January 20 per worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us was 1,988 dead bodies, but SLIK RICK said C19 was peaking on 12/19/21 which is 32 days earlier. 🙄

Kinda hard to posit dead bodies.
Click to expand...
You started off by stating you were thinking about this logically, then went on to conflate the "unvaccinated" with those who recovered and are naturally immune, so the rest of what you put forth really doesn't make much sense in response to what I commented on.

As I'm sure you're well aware, it's been shown that those who are recovered and naturally immune are far better off going forward vs those who are solely vaccinated. That it took the 'powers that be' so very long to get on board with that should infuriate you and everyone else in this country., If it doesn't, that's a tell.

You seem to be driven by emotion and statistics on this subject; I am not. I rely on reading the best research I can on this and any subject so I can go about making informed, logical decisions. I certainly do not rely on political ideologues or the 'press' to provide me with salient, unbiased information. If I'm misinterpreting what you are saying/what you believe, then by all means correct me. If you wish to dispute what I've put forth from a science standpoint, also feel free. But please, do not drag me into some strawman argument propped up by feelings, numbers, and morality tropes.
 
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Patrick said:
I agree that the recovered didn't need to lock it down - how would that work? <-- is this the bigger issue? We can medical journal all we want,
deciding if something is actionable is a different monster.

Mutations are probabilistic? Not killing the host is a better survival technique? I'll go with all that E.O.Wilson stuff about mutations and mega communities.
which means i know a sliver of a finger nail.....

my omicron comment is that we could (i'm not saying should) let it play out now. Say we go about our business, with people modifying their own behaviour - some mask,
some work from home, increased personal space, etc. Some will, some won't.
Is that enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed? Gotta be some smart people that can simulate that.

BTW - thanks for being out there during this. means a lot to many. I have 4 direct friends that had extended hospital stays, and they made it cause someone cared.
Click to expand...
How would that work? Immunity passports?😆😆😆

Seriously though, yes most viruses will mutate towards decreased lethality and higher infection rates. This seems to be what we are seeing with Covid. There's also evidence to suggest that there is a level of protection offered from exposure to previous coronavirus infections.

To be clear, I am not advocating for people to go out and get Covid. I am saying that, along with many other HCPs, this variant could conceivably act as an attenuated vaccine for many. Naturally those who are in vulnerable populations should continue to remain vigilant about their vaccination status and limit exposure to scenarios wherein they could be infected.

The idea of hospitals being overwhelmed now compared to OG Covid are a misnomer. There's always a level of CYA involved in an admission; Covid has expanded that. Sure, you want to do right by your patients, but you also don't want to get bit in the ass. Happens all the time with cardiac complaints. Person will have negative EKGs, negative troponins, but will get a just-in-case admission based on their heart score. Same here with Covid. That's the kind of stuff you can't get from statistics.

“statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”-Aaron Levenstein

PS- I'd say you're welcome, or thank you, but I can't. I love what I do, and nothing makes me feel better than helping those in need, and even better, in fixing them.
 
thegock said:
Thinking about this logically, if the death rate for the unvaccinated is 20x (CDC info for October 2021) those who are vaccinated, then if we relied on natural immunity and didn't vaccinate, how many more people would have died?

Wait, don't answer that. Dr. Joe, a microbiologist friend of mine for the last 53 years, thought: "Millions, in the US alone"

The 7DMA on January 20 per worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us was 1,988 dead bodies, but SLIK RICK said C19 was peaking on 12/19/21 which is 32 days earlier. 🙄

Kinda hard to posit dead bodies.
Click to expand...

Posting drunk again?? Me first week Jan:

"UK is about 2 weeks ahead of us - we should peak by 3rd week of Jan"

According to 7dma worldometer, we peaked Jan 16. Do you ever tire of being wrong here?
 
Patrick said:
my omicron comment is that we could (i'm not saying should) let it play out now. Say we go about our business, with people modifying their own behaviour - some mask,
some work from home, increased personal space, etc. Some will, some won't.
Is that enough to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed? Gotta be some smart people that can simulate that.
Click to expand...

This is what is happening - here and elsewhere. Australia finally gave up and is "letting covid rip". UK rescinded mask and vaccine mandates. This is endemic now - the omicron wave has crested and will drop off sharply. Move on already
 
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Bikeworks said:
No, I'm looking at it through the glasses of a RN in the thick of it from the beginning. And if we were friends on the socials I'd link you to my postings about what I am saying, WAAAYYYYYY back in May of 2020. All of my info was coming from peer-reviewed journals, and was widely ignored by those who had the same information. This turned ridiculously political, and there is a bit of conspiracy in the form of those same people unwilling to admit they were wrong. Instead it's CYA, not the pivot and move forward we deserve.

The smart thing to do was to let those who were infected and recovered out into the world while the companies were busy getting their vaccines together. This would've allowed the social impact of Covid to have been less severe (financially, mental health, etc), while also having those same people act as viral 'dead-ends.' I would posit (I don't have the training to back this up, just theory) that if the virus did start to mutate when exposed to those who had previously been exposed to all the proteins on its surface, we may have seen a lesser strain sooner. I'll go a step further and say that the naturally immune cohort could have even stopped the virus cold. Instead, the world doubled down on a vaccine-only approach in attempting to achieve herd immunity, something that never had happened before, all while also relying on tricking a virus by mimicking one protein on its surface. Again, plenty were against this approach, but were ignored, likely because of what you put forth as "the conservative thing to do." It was foolhardy. Want to accuse me of 20/20 hindsight, that's fine as you can only take my word that I knew better at the time.
Click to expand...
The fact that natural immunity (acquired) was never studied, tracked or considered should in itself say allot. Fauci was asked about natural immunity on CNN by Sanjay Gupta just a few months back. He had no answer, more of a whats that look about him. This after over 1 1/2 years.

It would have been easy to recruit a ton, of people that had Alpha starting summer of 2020, and do a comprehensive study. But it clearly was never considered.

Why.
 
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Bikeworks said:
You started off by stating you were thinking about this logically, then went on to conflate the "unvaccinated" with those who recovered and are naturally immune, so the rest of what you put forth really doesn't make much sense in response to what I commented on.
Click to expand...

You are right, I was confused when I read your post. I was a bit sleep deprived due to the last 15 days of taking care of my 94 year old Dad who is mostly, hopefully recovered from C19. And I wasn't drunk as @SNOWFAK3 seems to think above, but may have sampled a tiny bit of the Bethlehem HG product.

However, I think linking actual credible sources in a post contribute more to the discussion than (and this is not you that I am referring to) citing vague conspiracy theories from some unmentioned low IQanon site. You go on to say:

"As I'm sure you're well aware, it's been shown that those who are recovered and naturally immune are far better off going forward vs those who are solely vaccinated. That it took the 'powers that be' so very long to get on board with that should infuriate you and everyone else in this country., If it doesn't, that's a tell."

What do you think of this information:

From the CDC website:

Fauci and the rest of the conspiracists

www.cdc.gov

COVID-19 Vaccine Facts

What you need to know about COVID-19 vaccines, myths and facts.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

"MYTH: The natural immunity I get from being sick with COVID-19 is better than the immunity I get from COVID-19 vaccination.

FACT: Getting a COVID-19 vaccination is a safer and more dependable way to build immunity to COVID-19 than getting sick with COVID-19."
Bikeworks said:
You seem to be driven by emotion and statistics on this subject; I am not. I rely on reading the best research I can on this and any subject so I can go about making informed, logical decisions. I certainly do not rely on political ideologues or the 'press' to provide me with salient, unbiased information. If I'm misinterpreting what you are saying/what you believe, then by all means correct me. If you wish to dispute what I've put forth from a science standpoint, also feel free. But please, do not drag me into some strawman argument propped up by feelings, numbers, and morality tropes.
Click to expand...

I don't know which argument that you think I want to drag you into. You got something against numbers, fine. I got something against people who can't spell "a lot," "extension," and "just about every word with more than two syllables."

SAND BARS 7656082549022003042.jpg
 
thegock said:
You are right, I was confused when I read your post. I was a bit sleep deprived due to the last 15 days of taking care of my 94 year old Dad who is mostly, hopefully recovered from C19. And I wasn't drunk as @SNOWFAK3 seems to think above, but may have sampled a tiny bit of the Bethlehem HG product.

However, I think linking actual credible sources in a post contribute more to the discussion than (and this is not you that I am referring to) citing vague conspiracy theories from some unmentioned low IQanon site. You go on to say:

"As I'm sure you're well aware, it's been shown that those who are recovered and naturally immune are far better off going forward vs those who are solely vaccinated. That it took the 'powers that be' so very long to get on board with that should infuriate you and everyone else in this country., If it doesn't, that's a tell."

What do you think of this information:

From the CDC website:

Fauci and the rest of the conspiracists

www.cdc.gov

COVID-19 Vaccine Facts

What you need to know about COVID-19 vaccines, myths and facts.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

"MYTH: The natural immunity I get from being sick with COVID-19 is better than the immunity I get from COVID-19 vaccination.

FACT: Getting a COVID-19 vaccination is a safer and more dependable way to build immunity to COVID-19 than getting sick with COVID-19."


I don't know which argument that you think I want to drag you into. You got something against numbers, fine. I got something against people who can't spell "a lot," "extension," and "just about every word with more than two syllables."

View attachment 176797
Click to expand...
If you've spent the last couple of weeks taking care of your dad, then you NEED to get drunk lol. Glad he is doing better and I hope the trend continues.

The CDC link you provided is a great example of how badly we are manipulated by what are supposed to be trusted sources. The 'Fact' doesn't actually answer the 'Myth' question, likely because at this point in time (and all along) it was true. Targeting the spike protein only was never going to be as robust and durable as recovery from infection. So instead we get that it's a safer bet than getting Covid; to that I would say 'it depends on the person and their risk factors', but only to the Covid part. And again, not advocating people get it, either. It wasn't a picnic for me, and I have next to no comorbidities (I had a rare cancer 10 years ago). The safety of the vaccine is one I won't debate at the present time as things are.....evolving, but early on it did seem to help mitigate disease spread and severity.

Numbers make me weak in the knees, always have. That's why I gravitate towards patho stuff as it's easier for me to process. And I do feel numbers are manipulated, just as the words you quoted from the CDC; it's unfortunate. The hypotheticals on deaths you referenced a few times in your post, coupled with the Desantis mention led me to believe you were engaging me on a 'how many deaths are you ok with"/political diatribe, which like I said is something I am loathe to participate in. Not your intent (at least with me), so that's cool.

That pic is terrific!!!!
 
thegock said:
You are right, I was confused when I read your post. I was a bit sleep deprived due to the last 15 days of taking care of my 94 year old Dad who is mostly, hopefully recovered from C19. And I wasn't drunk as @SNOWFAK3 seems to think above, but may have sampled a tiny bit of the Bethlehem HG product.

However, I think linking actual credible sources in a post contribute more to the discussion than (and this is not you that I am referring to) citing vague conspiracy theories from some unmentioned low IQanon site. You go on to say:

"As I'm sure you're well aware, it's been shown that those who are recovered and naturally immune are far better off going forward vs those who are solely vaccinated. That it took the 'powers that be' so very long to get on board with that should infuriate you and everyone else in this country., If it doesn't, that's a tell."

What do you think of this information:

From the CDC website:

Fauci and the rest of the conspiracists

www.cdc.gov

COVID-19 Vaccine Facts

What you need to know about COVID-19 vaccines, myths and facts.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

"MYTH: The natural immunity I get from being sick with COVID-19 is better than the immunity I get from COVID-19 vaccination.

FACT: Getting a COVID-19 vaccination is a safer and more dependable way to build immunity to COVID-19 than getting sick with COVID-19."


I don't know which argument that you think I want to drag you into. You got something against numbers, fine. I got something against people who can't spell "a lot," "extension," and "just about every word with more than two syllables."

View attachment 176797
Click to expand...
“Alot”
This still always makes me giggle 🤷‍♂️

hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com

The Alot is Better Than You at Everything

As a grammatically conscientious person who frequents internet forums and YouTube, I have found it necessary to develop a few coping mechani...
hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com
 
rick81721 said:
This is what is happening - here and elsewhere. Australia finally gave up and us "letting covid rip". UK rescinded mask and vaccine mandates. This is endemic now - the omicron wave has crested and will drop off sharply. Move on already
Click to expand...
I've not seen that, where did you?

HenryK said:
The fact that natural immunity (acquired) was never studied, tracked or considered should in itself say allot. Fauci was asked about natural immunity on CNN by Sanjay Gupta just a few months back. He had no answer, more of a whats that look about him. This after over 1 1/2 years.

It would have been easy to recruit a ton, of people that had Alpha starting summer of 2020, and do a comprehensive study. But it clearly was never considered.

Why.
Click to expand...
It was studied and tracked, just not by official entities like the CDC. Or, if it was, there was no information that was shared, at least to my knowledge. As to the why, there are plenty of reasons we can throw at the wall, but I am not willing to play that game by and large.

One reason I will put forth, however, is that this stuff is hard to understand, and many HCPs will often take the easier way out and give the simplest option rather than take the time to educate. This is especially true, and somewhat expected, when you consider the urgency sensed in having to address this disease in a quick and efficient manner. Way easier for the public to understand, and the provider to say, mask/isolate/quarantine/vaccinate then it is to talk about interventions. Hell, when I came back to work in April 2020, I was often hearing from MDs/PAs/RNs who were telling me I was 'going to get it again' or that 'this was new yadda yadda', to which I could only respond with stuff about how the immune system works, resulting in (concerning) blank stares more often than not. To put that in perspective, some of these same people insisted on testing me again weeks later because my IgM and IgA antibodies were so high. I was like, "you understand that stuff but you don't get how that same stuff is protecting me bigly?"

So yea, tl;dr. Agencies want things to be simple and straightforward for the public to digest during a pandemic. Whether they get it right is another story.
 
Bikeworks said:
The CDC link you provided is a great example of how badly we are manipulated by what are supposed to be trusted sources. The 'Fact' doesn't actually answer the 'Myth' question, likely because at this point in time (and all along) it was true. Targeting the spike protein only was never going to be as robust and durable as recovery from infection. So instead we get that it's a safer bet than getting Covid; to that I would say
Click to expand...

I am going to go with the deep state here, but it's a free country. #udou

Bikeworks said:
Numbers make me weak in the knees, always have.
Click to expand...

Great. I can save on Roofies.
Bikeworks said:
That pic is terrific!!!!
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You can see Queens in the background.
 
Words from the front, from my friend that runs the ER as he was leaving work. "Improvement? I guess you can call it that, as last week we had over 150 standing room only in our 50 bed ER and today was only 90." Pray you don't break something out on the trails and need to go to the ER.
 
MMuller said:
Words from the front, from my friend that runs the ER as he was leaving work. "Improvement? I guess you can call it that, as last week we had over 150 standing room only in our 50 bed ER and today was only 90." Pray you don't break something out on the trails and need to go to the ER.
Click to expand...

NJ has seen a 23% decrease in covid hospitalizations since the peak 11 days ago. Of course that's improvement.
 
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