This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

bergsnj said:
www.hopkinsmedicine.org

COVID Natural Immunity: What You Need to Know

Even if you’ve already had COVID-19, getting a coronavirus vaccine is recommended. These are the things you need to know about COVID natural immunity.
www.hopkinsmedicine.org www.hopkinsmedicine.org
Click to expand...

what was the flip?

i'm kinda sure we always thought getting it would provide natural immunity for some amount of time

and that the combo is better - with their conclusion saying that if you had covid, wait 90 days for the vaccine may give better protection.
 
Patrick said:
what was the flip?

i'm kinda sure we always thought getting it would provide natural immunity for some amount of time

and that the combo is better - with their conclusion saying that if you had covid, wait 90 days for the vaccine may give better protection.
Click to expand...
here is a quote from fauci, "I hope we are looking at a time when we have enough people vaccinated, and enough people with protection from previous infection, that the COVID restrictions will soon be a thing of the past"

www.newsweek.com

Fauci Says U.S. Approaching COVID Endemic Phase, End to Restrictions

As the nation transitions out of the pandemic phase, the decision to lift the restrictions will happen on the local level, Fauci said.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
bergsnj said:
here is a quote from fauci, "I hope we are looking at a time when we have enough people vaccinated, and enough people with protection from previous infection, that the COVID restrictions will soon be a thing of the past"

www.newsweek.com

Fauci Says U.S. Approaching COVID Endemic Phase, End to Restrictions

As the nation transitions out of the pandemic phase, the decision to lift the restrictions will happen on the local level, Fauci said.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
Click to expand...

I don't mean to be contentious - I'm not sure why it is seen as a flip, vs just the new reality.
Fauci wasn't going to say go out and have covid parties last year, he was going to say go out and get vax'd.
The less virulent omicron wasn't around, and delta was hitting hard.

my quick thoughts with a broad brush.
worldometers has the case count in the US at 78M now -
let's say 1 year ago, the unique case count was half of that (i'm eyeballing the graph) - so 39M or 13% of the population.
that leaves 87% of the population. 6% are under 5, and the vaccine for under 15 (??) was coming, so given what they knew,
they pushed vaccines to 81% of the population as the way to get to some magical immunity number.
vax vax vax. they still are. but they have conceded that previous infection counts towards the total. (and even more if ya vax after)
Now that more than 20% has been infected (my guess at unique cases) - it is easier to talk about the combo.
We also know it is understated - because of people testing positive, and not reporting, cause it wasn't severe.
Throw in the fudge factor. (there is probably a study here)

Now it makes sense to instill a sense of "getting there" - but not quite there.
vax vax vax....to get there, rather than letting another 10% of the population catch it.
At some point, the stance has to soften as part of the end game?
Hospitals will be able to handle the cases, vax or booster for those who want it becomes a yearly thing, along with the flu vax,
cause probably the same people?? And life goes on - might be some new normal thing, but that's ok.

What I do know is that in another couple years, after we normalize, we'll get the data on vax'd and unvax'd people who die or hit the ICU,
with/without comorbidities. It will stabilize at some yearly number (kinda like the flu) - the vax will get a track record for its safety (no prediction)
and effectiveness. Then we don't have to "just trust it"

will also throw in:

There was a new normal after the space shuttle disaster, 9/11, Chernobyl, 3MI in the lifetime of people on here.
There was behaviour change when HIV appeared, and it went from a Gay Men's disease (early talking points)
to a global problem - gee, I wonder if they were that naive?

It is easier to compartmentalize a single point disaster - we are a couple years in now.
was the last wave inevitable? Can't really tell - Will there be more? Probably. this is what we are dealing with.

hopefully in the next one the graph isn't as tall, or slope so steep because vax, prev infected, or a lack of easy targets.
 
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bergsnj said:
www.hopkinsmedicine.org

COVID Natural Immunity: What You Need to Know

Even if you’ve already had COVID-19, getting a coronavirus vaccine is recommended. These are the things you need to know about COVID natural immunity.
www.hopkinsmedicine.org www.hopkinsmedicine.org
Click to expand...

Yes we discussed this previously but it was stupid to not allow previous infection immunity as a substitute for vaccine mandates. EU and Israel had the policy that previous infection = 6 months of immunity - same as vaccination.
 
Patrick said:
I don't mean to be contentious - I'm not sure why it is seen as a flip, vs just the new reality.
Fauci wasn't going to say go out and have covid parties last year, he was going to say go out and get vax'd.
The less virulent omicron wasn't around, and delta was hitting hard.

my quick thoughts with a broad brush.
worldometers has the case count in the US at 78M now -
let's say 1 year ago, the unique case count was half of that (i'm eyeballing the graph) - so 39M or 13% of the population.
that leaves 87% of the population. 6% are under 5, and the vaccine for under 15 (??) was coming, so given what they knew,
they pushed vaccines to 81% of the population as the way to get to some magical immunity number.
vax vax vax. they still are. but they have conceded that previous infection counts towards the total. (and even more if ya vax after)
Now that more than 20% has been infected (my guess at unique cases) - it is easier to talk about the combo.
We also know it is understated - because of people testing positive, and not reporting, cause it wasn't severe.
Throw in the fudge factor. (there is probably a study here)

Now it makes sense to instill a sense of "getting there" - but not quite there.
vax vax vax....to get there, rather than letting another 10% of the population catch it.
At some point, the stance has to soften as part of the end game?
Hospitals will be able to handle the cases, vax or booster for those who want it becomes a yearly thing, along with the flu vax,
cause probably the same people?? And life goes on - might be some new normal thing, but that's ok.

What I do know is that in another couple years, after we normalize, we'll get the data on vax'd and unvax'd people who die or hit the ICU,
with/without comorbidities. It will stabilize at some yearly number (kinda like the flu) - the vax will get a track record for its safety (no prediction)
and effectiveness. Then we don't have to "just trust it"

will also throw in:

There was a new normal after the space shuttle disaster, 9/11, Chernobyl, 3MI in the lifetime of people on here.
There was behaviour change when HIV appeared, and it went from a Gay Men's disease (early talking points)
to a global problem - gee, I wonder if they were that naive?

It is easier to compartmentalize a single point disaster - we are a couple years in now.
was the last wave inevitable? Can't really tell - Will there be more? Probably. this is what we are dealing with.

hopefully in the next one the graph isn't as tall, or ramp so steep cause vax, prev infected, or a lack of easy targets.
Click to expand...

Way off in your guess of infections. At least 250 million at this point. The question is, how many people got infected twice? We are "there" now. Whoever was going to get vaccinated has done it by now. Those that won't, never will - and some percentage of that population has natural immunity now. Omicron is fading fast, whatever comes next is likely to be even less lethal. Time to move on already.
 
Patrick said:
the vax will get a track record for its safety (no prediction)
and effectiveness. Then we don't have to "just trust it"
Click to expand...
But that's what the clinical trials and the associated efficacy and safety endpoints are supposed to tell us. The whole idea is to know this before you file it for approval, which is why these things usually take years. The assumption therefore is that its safe and effective when approved. I'm not anti-vax, but they chose some pretty soft endpoints for these trials.
 
Captain Brainstorm said:
But that's what the clinical trials and the associated efficacy and safety endpoints are supposed to tell us. The whole idea is to know this before you file it for approval, which is why these things usually take years. The assumption therefore is that its safe and effective when approved. I'm not anti-vax, but they chose some pretty soft endpoints for these trials.
Click to expand...

This it the only argument that I accept from anti-vax people. I see the point.

The fact that I accept the risk, and lower my chance of dying now, vs some unforeseen future consequence was my choice.
See - i just eliminated the whole "gotta die sometime" claim. Did i extend or contract my lifespan?

rick81721 said:
Way off in your guess of infections. At least 250 million at this point.
Click to expand...

i don't see a 3x fudge factor as a problem. it is what it is. reinfection factor, just throw it out there. 10%? 20%? doesn't make a whole lot of difference,
cause we are getting into large enough numbers?

the problem i do see it the lack of a systematic way to actually measure it

Want to predict another wave? 4th of july party (again) ?
 
Patrick said:
i don't see a 3x fudge factor as a problem. it is what it is. reinfection factor, just throw it out there. 10%? 20%? doesn't make a whole lot of difference,
cause we are getting into large enough numbers?

the problem i do see it the lack of a systematic way to actually measure it

Want to predict another wave? 4th of july party (again) ?
Click to expand...

CDC estimates disease burden of covid like flu and other diseases. Unless it kills almost everyone, estimates are the best they can do. They say the number of actual infections to diagnosed is 4X. 150 million as of end Sept 2021 - which was before omicron. We've had 33 million diagnosed infections since then!

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

I don't think there will be any more "waves" - more like seasonal tides
 
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roc said:
It's funny that you have to say that. A lot of people act like everybody knew, or should have known, exactly what to do with a brand new virus.

Shit changes. We learn and adapt.

Accepted, fine motor skills like writing? Tough kindergarten!, in Morristown, they just show up to school at the assigned date.
Click to expand...
Writing is useless for these kids anyway. My son's best penmanship was when he was in kindergarten. Started typing everything shortly thereafter and now at 21 his writing looks like he is in pre-school.
 
Bike N Gear said:
Now that this thing seems to be winding down the NJ Department of Health just stopped by to give me this nice poster to explain to my employees what to do about Covid.

View attachment 178474
Click to expand...
As a company that has been following CDC rules everytime someone is exposed, positive, etc I give the validity of that poster about 3 weeks until CDC comes out with new recommendations.
 
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