This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
rick81721
Lothar
i'm back, after my 1 day quarantine. Probably my only post for the day, to limit exposure.
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Sure, they needed a made-for-tv drama script two months later because the public couldn't listen to the scientists,
and when polled, the public thought it was no biggie, so the elected government, to maintain approval ratings, reflected the concern level
of the people - which was dismissive. It is not the other way around.
Early numbers of exponential growth were compared to final flu numbers from a few years ago.
Why were they not compared to early numbers and the growth rate of that flu? (2+ compared to 1.3)
Why wasn't the hospitalization rate compared? (15%+ to 2%)
And why wasn't that clearly communicated?
Using the flu numbers that conspiracy theorist from @jdog's vid, he quoted
US numbers 45M/325M (13.8%)contracted the flu, 60k died: 0.15% - but only 2% required hospitalization
over a slower growth curve. This virus has more than 7x the need for hospital beds with a growth rate
of almost double (and double in terms of exponential, isn't a linear double - it is double in each "cycle")
these figures were known.
The mortality rate of the virus, is different than the overall rate, because people will
die that didn't have to, because care will not available. The mortality rate of the diamond princess is not
indicative of the final toll, because all of these people were treated.
Iran and Italy don't have a stronger strain, they just have a head start.
Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart
It’s more contagious, more deadly (particularly for older people), and it has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system.www.vox.com
US studies offer clues to COVID-19 swift spread, severity
www.cidrap.umn.edu
Edit:
the economy and small business will recover. it survived the depression. It survived the wars when no raw materials were available.
Potato famine, the dust bowl, lack of snow in the NJ.
Are we social distancing posting here as well to once per day? Then old man @thegock is way over his limit. I get it that he's in the worst possible demographic (80+ with underlying health condition of TDS) and is in full panic mode, but come on, man! Even you should survive this!
Anywho, I think the error here is failure to take into account demographics. One thing we know for sure is that the older population dies at a much higher rate than younger. So let's look at the demographics of three populations:
1. Italy
median age 46, 22% of the population is 65+
2. US
median age 38, 10% of the population is 65+
3. Diamond Princess
median age 58! 33% of the population is 70+
A death rate of 1% in the DP population is really good news considering the demographics. Now what I haven't found is the demographics of the infected population on DP. Here is the most I could find:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/cruise-ship-data-helps-reveal-coronavirus-death-rate-researchers
If we ASSume the infected population mirrors the total, we can infer the following.
230 of the infected were 70+, and all 7 deaths were in this age group, so a death rate of 3% in this population. This is at least 1/3 the death rate currently reported in this age group.
47% of the infected on DP were asymptomatic - had no symptoms at all - which means out of the 230 geezers infected, 108 didn't even know it and their immune systems fought it off. And as anyone who has cruised before knows, people on cruise ships, especially older people, aren't in the greatest of shape.
Bottom line, death rates, as @Norm has been postulating, appear to be highly inflated.
Final thought, this is my mantra for the near future:
The Chinese government did a good job of keeping their people in line and not letting them do anything. In the US, we have thousands of drunk, horny teenagers hanging out at the beach.
rick81721
Lothar
1. No one knows if the China numbers are real - most likely not.
2. China basically employed Martial law to force quarantines
68nova200
Well-Known Member
Because bigger numbers feeds the panic... plain and simple.
mfennell
Well-Known Member
Where are you reading tens of millions? The study out of the UK group came up with 4MM if we do nothing. 1/2 directly from the virus, 1/2 from resource limitations.
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
Same here in North Brunswick.
Reports from China say they were effective at stopping the virus by isolating suspected cases and those that were positive immediately. And that meant removing individual children from families/homes. They were not left to quarantine at home. This reduced case loads on the hospitals since remaining family members were much less likely to also become infected. This is part of the reason why it has been so bad in Italy vs China.
Western society is not going to fare well against this...
Italy is likely to surpass China in fatalities in the next day or two.
Italy now has more deaths than China.
Western society is not going to fare well against this...
Italy now has more deaths than China.
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Paul H
Fearless OOS Poser
We heard about cats and dogs.... But what about deers? Do we need to practice social distancing with deers when in the woods?
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Yes, until we run out of ground beef.
that was the, if we just protect the 'at risk' and go about our business rough number.
all of these can be orders of magnitude off, as Rick pointed out the mortality for cohorts is difficult to estimate.
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
We could take the Communist approach and impose martial law, force quarantine, and take kids from the their homes to stick them in giant dorms with other kids, I'm sure that will go over real well with parents (even though kids aren't getting as sick).
Western society is actually doing quite fine, despite all the fear mongering.
Because people are pack animals. If anything, this latest crisis has underscored this. People sure do like to be terrified together, misery does love company.
rick81721
Lothar
Hey what's your opinion on this - promising development?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/cor...examine-whether-malaria-drug-can-be-used.html
ryderX
Well-Known Member
My wife and I will be donating ours to the local food pantry and Hospice Care.
Steve Vai
Endurance Guy: Tolerates most of us.
We also have an abnormally large population of wealthy white women with self-proclaimed immunity and the inability to read.