This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

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Coronavirus: Leadership During Crisis with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy
New Jersey bore a heavy burden at the outset of the pandemic, as the tri-state region became the epicenter of COVID-19 in America. As part of the Leadership During Crisis series New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D) joins Washington Post national political reporter Robert Costa to discuss the toll the virus has taken on the Garden State, both in lives and dollars. He’ll also outline the progress his state is making in its phased reopening, and the challenges he sees ahead.
 
How do they come up with this transmission rate? It seems like this is the most important statistic which is used for many decisions. I just don’t understand how they can be so accurate.
Anything above 1.00 is “we’re fucking up!”. But .99 and below is “we’re so fucking money and we don’t even know it”.
 
jShort said:
How do they come up with this transmission rate? It seems like this is the most important statistic which is used for many decisions. I just don’t understand how they can be so accurate.
Anything above 1.00 is “we’re fucking up!”. But .99 and below is “we’re so fucking money and we don’t even know it”.
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I don't really understand it either. Seems to be a mathematical model that tries to explain observational disease infection/transmission parameters. Here is a site that tracks it constantly for all states.

https://rt.live/
 
Looks like the USA will go over 1% of the population infected today.

about 1/10th of a flu season. 3x the deaths.

www.cdc.gov

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
.

Today's focus state - PA.
a small amount of growth going on. gotta build a wall 😉

1594466099042.png
 
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Patrick said:
Looks like the USA will go over 1% of the population infected today.

about 1/10th of a flu season. 3x the deaths.

www.cdc.gov

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
.

Today's focus state - PA.
a small amount of growth going on. gotta build a wall 😉

View attachment 134008
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But if Covid-19 is so much easier to transmit, doesn't that mean the real infected numbers are much higher?
 
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GSTim said:
But if Covid-19 is so much easier to transmit, doesn't that mean the real infected numbers are much higher?
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Is it easier with our vigilance? Other than flu shots and avoiding sick people, we don't do anything to mitigate the spread of the flu.

Unimpeded, it was estimated at 2x more infectious (not sure if that is the right word) - https://www.tuftsmedicalcenter.org/news-events-media/news/web/covid-19/covid-19-vs-flu
I'd hypothesize that closing schools was probably the 1 barrier to spread - those little boogers are germ factories.

Couple pages back, an article wrote up a test concerning herd immunity in the densely populated area of Barcelona, and found 10%
positive for C19 or having antibodies. Regional, and specifically dense area - (can't find the article now) - it can't be extrapolated to the general population.
 
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Patrick said:
Couple pages back, an article wrote up a test concerning herd immunity in the densely populated area of Barcelona, and found 10%
positive for C19 or having antibodies. Regional, and specifically dense area - (can't find the article now) - it can't be extrapolated to the general population.
Click to expand...

You can't extrapolate one city study to a general population, but you can extrapolate a national study:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134
 
Forgot to mention my cycling social distancing experience from my ride in western NJ 2 days ago. Encountered two large groups of roadies - at least 15 each. First group was older, I'd say 60s-70s. They were all spaced by about 6 ft. Enough outside for a long ride? I don't think so. Anywho, second group was younger, probably 30s-40s. They weren't drafting but were very close to each other.
 
No one harping on Florida? So last two days - records for one day testing, almost 90K tests with a 12.6% positive and then 82K tests with a 12.5% positive. Deaths both days in the 90s.

Here is how it has progressed, looking at 3 day averages:

Cases:

May 31 959
June 14 2166
June 28 9019
July 12 ~ 10,500 (est)

Daily new cases increased by over 10 times, more than 4 times during the 2 week period of june 14 - jun 28. Since june 28, a 15% increase over 2 weeks. Seems to be a plateau, will know for sure in another week if it will stay here, go up, or down.

Deaths (deaths are cyclical due to reporting, so took the closest peaks for comparison):

May 31 52
June 14 41
June 28 57
July 12 92 (est)

Basically flat through the huge increase in new cases, since May 31, about a 60% increase. Will see where we are at in another week.
 
One more item on Florida - someone did an analysis from the state's data on event date vs reported date of new cases. Claiming a backlog of reporting data is resulting in higher peaks recently. Basically flattens the curve and pushes more cases further back:
 

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rick81721 said:
No one harping on Florida? So last two days - records for one day testing, almost 90K tests with a 12.6% positive and then 82K tests with a 12.5% positive. Deaths both days in the 90s.

Here is how it has progressed, looking at 3 day averages:
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Have I been slackin?!!!!!!!! Actually, just riding and TM.

The pharma scientist who I follow on the Rutgers Football Forum always looks at 7DMA to minimize patterns due to days of week/weekends. Therefore, I try to stick with that.
 
rick81721 said:
Forgot to mention my cycling social distancing experience from my ride in western NJ 2 days ago. Encountered two large groups of roadies - at least 15 each. First group was older, I'd say 60s-70s. They were all spaced by about 6 ft. Enough outside for a long ride? I don't think so. Anywho, second group was younger, probably 30s-40s. They weren't drafting but were very close to each other.
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I am with you on this. Why risk more vectors of the virus?
 
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