This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Age of those infected... which I think @rick81721 touched on
Then the general health and/or pre-existing conditions of those infected... like smoking, diabetes, obesity and etc.

Maybe NY/NJ has more fat smokers? :shrug:
 
Norm said:
I will also look at the 7 day rolling average from "wave 1":

Peak date for cases: April 10
Peak date for deaths: April 21

The actual data from wave 1 says the lag is 11 days. This is the largest dataset we have to look at right now.

Wave 2 started on June 9th. The death wave bottomed out on July 5th. July 6th it started going up again.

I would say the only thing that makes sense right now is the idea that the Florida strain has mutated into a less deadly version. I don't see what other conclusion the facts support at this time.
Click to expand...

Need to look further into the demographics of who is dying right now. I saw a list from one county this afternoon that listed 9 deaths, the lowest age was 59, at least 5 were in their 90s.

Also just noticed this:

"The number includes many who’ve died days and weeks ago, so it is not necessarily a sign of current lethality of the virus."

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...ida-as-states-death-toll-passes-4000/2259942/
 
rick81721 said:
Need to look further into the demographics of who is dying right now. I saw a list from one county this afternoon that listed 9 deaths, the lowest age was 59, at least 5 were in their 90s.

Also just noticed this:

"The number includes many who’ve died days and weeks ago, so it is not necessarily a sign of current lethality of the virus."

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...ida-as-states-death-toll-passes-4000/2259942/
Click to expand...
So this is saying... Potentially, the number of death could be a lot higher due to death not yet discovered. Considering the elderly living alone... Pretty plausible imo
 
Mahnken said:
But that's been the case all along, didn't just happen today.
Click to expand...

And will be the case going forward. (i.e. all the deaths as of today have not yet been counted) Or, as the National Geographic article (post 4,723 above) said: "...and humans take even more time to record the pandemic’s fatalities due to administrative red tape."
 
Mahnken said:
But that's been the case all along, didn't just happen today.
Click to expand...

Could be but there was something odd today. FL DOH releases numbers every morning between 10:30 and 11. Today I read a news story at 11:15 and it said 48 new deaths. Later they added the rest. Usually the first number never changes.
 
Mahnken said:
But that's been the case all along, didn't just happen today.
Click to expand...

The graphs, peaks, valleys - they would all be the same. The high point times 1.5 is still the high point. Same with the low point. It doesn't change the lag factor of the first dataset.

@rick81721 you do have a point about demographics. I don't think that explains the disparity between NJ & FL entirely. Population density likely has something to do with it.

I'm just going to post this as a WAG, bold means they are on both lists.

Population DensityCovid Death Rate
NJNJ
RINY
MassCT
CTMass
MarylandRI
DelawareLouisiana (I skipped DC)
NYMichigan
FLIllinois
PAMaryland

PA is next on the Death Rate list. Then Delaware.

Florida is not even close. Statistically speaking it would almost seem that Florida's numbers are either wildly inaccurate, or there is something hard to explain - note that this assumes there is a correlation. I think either way, Florida is where freaks live.

To me, Arizona is of particular concern. If you look at these states by cases/million population, the higher you are on the list the lower the rate seems to be. Arizona is the exception to this. It seems like they simply DGAF about this and do not believe it's real.
 
Norm said:
I will also look at the 7 day rolling average from "wave 1":

Peak date for cases: April 10
Peak date for deaths: April 21

The actual data from wave 1 says the lag is 11 days. This is the largest dataset we have to look at right now.

Wave 2 started on June 9th. The death wave bottomed out on July 5th. July 6th it started going up again.

I would say the only thing that makes sense right now is the idea that the Florida strain has mutated into a less deadly version. I don't see what other conclusion the facts support at this time.
Click to expand...
The Daily podcast on the 6th discusses this, as the virus mutates it becomes much more contagious, yet slightly less deadly
 
Norm said:
The Question: Why is NJ so, so much higher than Florida? I honestly have no idea.
Click to expand...


A huge percentage of the deaths up here were old and pre-existing. Maybe they actually wised up and stayed on top of the long term health care facilities?
Or maybe people in NY and NJ live in so much pollution that we’re at a higher risk?

but I’m with you that somethings up.
 
Patrick said:
protocols have improved - might be more attributed to dexamethasone tho.
Click to expand...
jShort said:
A huge percentage of the deaths up here were old and pre-existing. Maybe they actually wised up and stayed on top of the long term health care facilities?
Or maybe people in NY and NJ live in so much pollution that we’re at a higher risk?

but I’m with you that somethings up.
Click to expand...
i thought people move to FL to NOT be in a long term care facility? Given How under paid staff in those facilities are, I can’t image the quality nurses you would get FL. Also, they may have more outdoor spaces in FL in those facilities, which could help.
I
 
stb222 said:
i thought people move to FL to NOT be in a long term care facility? Given How under paid staff in those facilities are, I can’t image the quality nurses you would get FL.
Click to expand...

?

if you need long term care, it doesn't matter where you live. Florida has made a business of it, and they are good at it.
from home care, to assisted, to full time skilled. I've dealt with skilled in-home, and they were excellent. In STL, we dealt with
the whole range, and both died peacefully, when expected at their facility.

I've said it before, people do not go to hospitals to die.
 
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Patrick said:
?

if you need long term care, it doesn't matter where you live. Florida has made a business of it, and they are good at it.
from home care, to assisted, to full time skilled. I've dealt with skilled in-home, and they were excellent. In STL, we dealt with
the whole range, and both died peacefully, when expected at their facility.

I've said it before, people do not go to hospitals to die.
Click to expand...
www.forbes.com

The 10 Best And Worst States For Nursing Homes

If you've ever had to leave a loved one in a facility, you understand how difficult (and scary) it can be.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Forbes rates Florida as the 8th worst, smack between NY and NJ.

Also: frail heathcare system

DAF99A53-155F-4D46-B237-D12B7E0A8E9B.jpeg
there are exceptions to every rule,but economics wise, doesn’t make sense That FL would have the best facilities.
 
stb222 said:
i thought people move to FL to NOT be in a long term care facility? Given How under paid staff in those facilities are, I can’t image the quality nurses you would get FL. Also, they may have more outdoor spaces in FL in those facilities, which could help.
I
Click to expand...

Datapoint of 1:

Aunt moved from NY to FL, she was a nurse in long-term care facilities in both. The difference from NY to FL was horrible both for the staff and patients. Horrible living conditions for the patients, staff treated horribly. Ended up working at Home Depot for similar pay.
 
Norm said:
The graphs, peaks, valleys - they would all be the same. The high point times 1.5 is still the high point. Same with the low point. It doesn't change the lag factor of the first dataset.

@rick81721 you do have a point about demographics. I don't think that explains the disparity between NJ & FL entirely. Population density likely has something to do with it.

I'm just going to post this as a WAG, bold means they are on both lists.

Population DensityCovid Death Rate
NJNJ
RINY
MassCT
CTMass
MarylandRI
DelawareLouisiana (I skipped DC)
NYMichigan
FLIllinois
PAMaryland

PA is next on the Death Rate list. Then Delaware.

Florida is not even close. Statistically speaking it would almost seem that Florida's numbers are either wildly inaccurate, or there is something hard to explain - note that this assumes there is a correlation. I think either way, Florida is where freaks live.

To me, Arizona is of particular concern. If you look at these states by cases/million population, the higher you are on the list the lower the rate seems to be. Arizona is the exception to this. It seems like they simply DGAF about this and do not believe it's real.
Click to expand...

I'm sure population density explains much of the cumulative 10 times higher death rate in NJ vs FL, most of the NJ deaths were early on with crowded hospitals and basically no treatment. Now they have convalescent plasma and remdesevir. But I still don't understand why, right now, people are still dying at a higher rate in NJ - I would assume all states have the same treatments available.

Back to density tho, the most populous and dense counties in FL are seeing the greatest increases right now. They found almost as many cases in one day in Miami Dade then we have total in our county. Feet on the ground in the hot zone in 3 days!
 
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