Tariffs...what to make of them.

[OddTrickStar]

That said, I firmly believe that where Biden was 50% piece of garbage, Trump is 90% piece of garbage. I have actually not seen much that would deserve that 10% leeway but in the interests of being fair, I'll stop at 90 instead of 100. And that previous opinion, plus $5, will get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

It’s noteworthy that you picked the 90% figure. That’s about the percentage of negative stories in the media directed at Trump with about 85-90% of the stories about his opponents being positive. It’s a stark contrast and an intentional double standard. Dems can do no wrong and Reps can do no right is how it comes across to this registered independent. With the recent disclosures of USAID payments to media companies, I really want to know just how incestuous the relationship between corrupt government officials and the media is. The Steele dossier already mentioned is an example of this circular reporting, get it published and then “look into it”. HC and the DNC did get fined by the FEC for misreporting the payments for this operation, it’s a real thing.

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

 

[rjr44]

I opened my bicycle shop in the Spring of 1995. 95-96 was the snowiest winter in history for NJ. When I made it through that winter I always thought well, if I can survive that, I can survive anything. Trump's market crash will be a similar test for my first year of retirement. You might find me looking for a job before he wakes up.

The 401k crowd should be ok with a pullback. Their investments and reinvestments of dividend are taking advantage of lower cost.

I'm on the other side, ready to take out. I just switched to income generation. Hopefully nobody cuts dividend. Cost of capital is still high so my cefs should be ok, even if their nav took a hit

Timing is everything in matters like this. I still have some runway where I welcome lower prices. But yeah, before I know it I'll be less and less a fan of major pullbacks.

 

[Bike N Gear]

It’s noteworthy that you picked the 90% figure. That’s about the percentage of negative stories in the media directed at Trump with about 85-90% of the stories about his opponents being positive. It’s a stark contrast and an intentional double standard. Dems can do no wrong and Reps can do no right is how it comes across to this registered independent. With the recent disclosures of USAID payments to media companies, I really want to know just how incestuous the relationship between corrupt government officials and the media is. The Steele dossier already mentioned is an example of this circular reporting, get it published and then “look into it”. HC and the DNC did get fined by the FEC for misreporting the payments for this operation, it’s a real thing.

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

Can you explain why every foreign country and media outlet are also anti trump? I mean except Russia.

 

[Bike N Gear]

Timing is everything in matters like this. I still have some runway where I welcome lower prices. But yeah, before I know it I'll be less and less a fan of major pullbacks.

I’ve got some cash sitting on the side to buy but sad to say I don’t think we’re anywhere near bottom.

 

[rjr44]

It’s noteworthy that you picked the 90% figure. That’s about the percentage of negative stories in the media directed at Trump with about 85-90% of the stories about his opponents being positive. It’s a stark contrast and an intentional double standard. Dems can do no wrong and Reps can do no right is how it comes across to this registered independent. With the recent disclosures of USAID payments to media companies, I really want to know just how incestuous the relationship between corrupt government officials and the media is. The Steele dossier already mentioned is an example of this circular reporting, get it published and then “look into it”. HC and the DNC did get fined by the FEC for misreporting the payments for this operation, it’s a real thing.

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

That's the hardest part, getting to the actual facts (or as reasonably close as we can get). Confirmation bias is the biggest obstacle to a healthy debate on this stuff. You have sources that align to your worldview, clearly they are correct and all the others wrong. Both sides do this. It's easy to fall for propaganda cuz they've been doing it so long it's hard to tell the difference. Only recently does it seem people's eyes are opening to how manipulated we are by mass media.

 

[rjr44]

I’ve got some cash sitting on the side to buy but sad to say I don’t think we’re anywhere near bottom.

You'll never (unless lucky) pick the bottom. When the bottom happens (if it's a major 30%+ decline) everyone is too scared shite to pull the trigger then. By the time they decide to it's already whipsawed 20% (off the bottom, not new highs) to the better.

Good strategy is to leg in little by little. Either scheduled investing (i.e. monthly, quarterly) or magnitude, every 5% down (so at 5, 10, 15, 20, etc) or every 10% down (down 10, 20, 30). Other options as well, if it's rules-based and systematic you'll generally do better than manual emotions-based.

But again, I'm speaking from someone w/ a different runaway and more appetite for risk. Easy for me to say what I would do in your shoes, let's see if I do it when I get there (hopefully I get there!).

 

[Doom]

Dow is now down 3600 points in 30 days… tariffs are working great! I told my neighbor I though the DOW would loose 4000 points by the end of march, guess I guessed low.


View attachment 257197

Zoom out, Man. Are you going to do this everyday? Lol

 

[rjr44]

Can you explain why every foreign country and media outlet are also anti trump? I mean except Russia.

As a complete political cynic, I'd say it's the same reason they all have pushed various now debunked hoaxes or misinformation campaigns and such, or support all the same causes. All these democratic governments ain't exactly 100% independent of each other. They work together.

When you can, follow the money, that usually leads to all the answers.

Kinda related to the earlier today back and forth. At one time not too long ago (at the height of COVID) most people (including me) believed invermectin was a horse medicine. That was pushed near globally. And yet, as I've shown today, the animal formulation is a derivative of the originally intended use. This drug wasn't invented during COVID. It was invented in the 1980s I think and won the Nobel Prize in the mid 2010's. Yet all these "independent" governments got behind the horse paste mis-information push.

How could they all have been so wrong about something that's been around so long? Coincidence? Nah...

 

[OddTrickStar]

Can you explain why every foreign country and media outlet are also anti trump? I mean except Russia.

Are they really? That’s an opinion statement posing as a question.

 

[Santapez]

Soooo, you used it? For Covid?

Bless your hart.

It's "Bless your Heart."

I'm willing to bet there's a high chance nobody in this whole thread has used Ivermectin for Covid, their animals or anything else.

Zoom out, Man. Are you going to do this everyday? Lol

I'll 100% blame Trump for a fair amount of the drop in the market recently. But in the long term this will be a blip in the market most likely.

I remember at the early days of the Obama administration my friend laughing daily at the market dropping. "Every time Obama talks, market drops." In the end, the market was up 70% and I'm know he wasn't crediting Obama for that increase.

People love their teams.

 

[scott62]

Zoom out, Man. Are you going to do this everyday? Lol

It’s a tariff thread, should we talk about egg prices? maybe job creation ? I was in the Emerson shoprite yesterday and there were lots of empty shelves, should we talk about that? Tariffs effect the market, what trump is doing is going crush our economy. There is light at the end of the tunnel, unfortunately that light is attached to a train.

 

[Red Mosquito]

The LAST time? You didn't notice all the times before that?

Seems like we may be in the same IQ bracket.

 

[sundaydoug]

The 401k crowd should be ok with a pullback. Their investments and reinvestments of dividend are taking advantage of lower cost.

Assuming they're nowhere near retirement. At 43 I'm in that camp, and if I could I'd actually increase my contribution during this pullback.

But for those of you close to retirement with 401K assets in risky funds I really do understand the anger and frustration.

 

[UtahJoe]

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

Well, that will always be impossible....we have a free press..(that is vastly corp owned..so how free exactly) ..so its either what we have...where we all have to wade thru waist deep shit to try and read all things and all sides....or, we have what russia has...state owned and controlled in someway. So pick your poison.

You can say all the positive things you want about Trump, but you just can't expect everyone to agree with you.

I happen to thing Reagan gave the best speeches of any president in my lifetime......someone in this tiny fishbowl we are in here will take issue with that statement...and im fine with that.

 

[Red Mosquito]

On the media topic, there was a very interesting episode of JRE a month ago with a guy who dives deep into USAID. What he claims is that USAID has corrupted basically all of the press (foreign and domestic) and also has their hand in many foreign covert operations to further US interests. While this is only a few steps removed from a global cabal of lizard people trying to invoke a new world order, I’ve gotta think at least some of this is true. And if it is, that may explain a lot about why the press covers things the way they do.

Admittedly I have not done my homework on any of this, and I take much of it with a grain of salt, but I also tend to think where there’s smoke there’s fire.

 

[UtahJoe]

It’s a tariff thread, should we talk about egg prices? maybe job creation ? I was in the Emerson shoprite yesterday and there were lots of empty shelves, should we talk about that? Tariffs effect the market, what trump is doing is going crush our economy. There is light at the end of the tunnel, unfortunately that light is attached to a train.

So while I agree that looking at it day to day is probably not the best approach.....HOWEVER....I think what is bad for Trump is this on again, off again....Tariffs are for making billions, tariffs are to punish countries for fentanyl, tariffs are for fairness...were going to sink canada to the point that they will become a state....but then tomorrow...scrap all of that for these 17 companies....Europe is adding tariffs now, ok, well now we are going to respond with X....There appears to be no coordinated plan....There is no coordinated message about tariffs....Today sen tommy tuberville was on fox news talking about NO PAIN NO GAIN.....ya, putting americans in pain usually doesn't help your popularity.

Like I think people would be on board with targeted tariffs....but this tit for tat.....market keeps tanking....companies are going to start laying people off....Trump will KILL any good name tariffs might have had. Like im not anti tariff...we need tariffs in some cases, 100%. But can anyone tell me what new thing we might have a tariff on tomorrow and for what reason?

New report from the Treasury today....spending rose to 603b last month....40 billion more than last year....So while everyone is getting all jolly about the DOGE savings....fact is we spent 7% more last month than a year ago...ALL employs in the entire federal govt amount to 4% of the money we spend. Keep cutting, fire people, making everyone services suck more....its not going to make a dent.....Social Security, the defense budget and Medicare/Medicaid......That is where ALL the money is....when you hear they are cutting those...then we might see some savings.

 

[rjr44]

On the media topic, there was a very interesting episode of JRE a month ago with a guy who dives deep into USAID. What he claims is that USAID has corrupted basically all of the press (foreign and domestic) and also has their hand in many foreign covert operations to further US interests. While this is only a few steps removed from a global cabal of lizard people trying to invoke a new world order, I’ve gotta think at least some of this is true. And if it is, that may explain a lot about why the press covers things the way they do.

Admittedly I have not done my homework on any of this, and I take much of it with a grain of salt, but I also tend to think where there’s smoke there’s fire.

Like you this piqued my curiosity. Like you I don't have the time to dig deep. Like you I think there are some facts mixed w/ some hyperbole. I think this guy is an independent journalist or something? Don't know too much about him, but what I'm getting at is he's gotta make a living, whether that's subscriptions, driving traffic to his media properties for ad revenue, I don't know.

When stuff sounds too believable and too "perfect" that gets my suspicions up cuz rarely do things ever align that well. I just don't know the split. 25% true 75% sensationalism? 75/25? Other splits? All possible. Maybe one day we'll know, it's usually hindsight that we finally get to know the truth, if we're lucky.

 

[Norm]

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

Overall I don't disagree with your post, but I'll highlight this key area. I think the difference really comes down to the man himself. Instead of just doing things, he does things then opens his mouth and sounds like a lunatic. Absolutely no unbalanced media will cover the fact that he sounds, to me, like a petulant child. Can you honestly say that the shit about Canada as the 51st state is anything short of ridiculous? Greenland? The Panama Canal?

Even if we had the most balanced news reporting in the history of the universe, the dude opens his mouth and inserts his foot hourly. Then he looks for other people's feet to cram in his mouth. The shit about the transgender mice? Seriously man, this has nothing to do with the media. The dude is a moron when he opens his mouth. Tesler.

To be fair, I'll say just like Biden appeared to be a human-roomba when he moved to & from the podium. No matter which way you slice it, the previous president was losing his mind, and fast.

I will give you a practical example. As a communist pinko liberal (or whatever people want to label me) I actually agree that USAID is probably best spent at home, as opposed to the rest of the world. I do believe that we would be better served to spend more money at home fixing our own problems. But to see a video of Musk in the Oval Office going on about how we shouldn't be sending condoms to the Palestine just plays out really, really badly in the media. They just roll the cameras and let those guys make themselves look bad. They do it every hour, every single hour, man.

Likewise, I actually agree in part to cutting Medicaid. I had an old coworker who was getting Medicaid payments because he was in the military and had tendinitis. I was pretty disgusted that this is how our tax dollars are spent. So there's another thing I do not disagree with. I don't know how that messaging went. But I would wager it wasn't done with any dignity at all.

And I guess that's it. Maybe it's the total lack of class and dignity that bothers many people. I'm also willing to admit that the messaging doesn't necessarily make the message any different. If Biden punches you in the face and says, "Sorry old chap, didn't mean to do that," while Trump punches you in the face and calls you a *****, does that actually matter? I don't know.

That said, and maybe you're right about this, it sure feels like Trump is punching 9 of every 10 babies while Biden punched only half of them. I make up numbers to suit my narrative, of course.

 

[rjr44]

the dude opens his mouth and inserts his foot hourly.

To be fair, I'll say just like Biden appeared to be a human-roomba when he moved to & from the podium.

OK, first, the roomba comment, that's an all time banger right there, I can't stop laughing, I wish someone would make some Biden Roomba memes, I might not recover.

On the former point, yeah, he does himself no service w/ the bluster. I guess once a salesman, always a salesman? When someone is successful doing things one way for a long time it's hard to break that habit, even if it stops working.

During his first term and even now I hoped/hope (ok wish probably better word) he was doing this to provide a smokescreen for his folks so they could get real work done unhindered. Kinda like at work, one job of a manager is to shield his/her direct reports from his/her manager, so they can get the real work done. When the upper managers skip levels to the productive workers they usually just get in the way.

While I WISH this is his game plan, I can't say w/ a straight face it is.

 

[SmooveP]

It’s noteworthy that you picked the 90% figure. That’s about the percentage of negative stories in the media directed at Trump with about 85-90% of the stories about his opponents being positive. It’s a stark contrast and an intentional double standard. Dems can do no wrong and Reps can do no right is how it comes across to this registered independent. With the recent disclosures of USAID payments to media companies, I really want to know just how incestuous the relationship between corrupt government officials and the media is. The Steele dossier already mentioned is an example of this circular reporting, get it published and then “look into it”. HC and the DNC did get fined by the FEC for misreporting the payments for this operation, it’s a real thing.

I think if we had a fair and balanced media, even close to it, our political discourse would be quite different right now. You can’t say anything positive about President Trump, people lose their 💩

Did you consider that there might be a valid reason for the high percentage of negative stories? Also the numbers are meaningless without context such as how many eyeballs were exposed to said stories. Also also, Fox has been the #1 news network for 20 years. I think most people would admit that the Fox/Trump relationship was a little too cozy.

With regard to the USAID payments to media companies, I assume you're referring to the AP and Politico. Both of those companies provide specialized subscription services for both government and commercial clients. The govt has subscribed to the AP feed for decades across Rep and Dem admins. Here's what Trump said on Truth about it:

“LOOKS LIKE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS HAVE BEEN STOLLEN AT USAID, AND OTHER AGENCIES, MUCH OF IT GOING TO THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA AS A ‘PAYOFF’ FOR CREATING GOOD STORIES ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS.”

I haven't any proof about the "payoff" part. The govt uses news feeds as one of many information sources to keep informed. Do they subscribe to any right-leaning or centrist publications? I dunno.

"Incestuous", you say? The 2 main characters in this discussion, Trump and Musk, both own social media outlets. One of them is pretty big.