How the hell are we supposed to retire?
- Thread starter Red Mosquito
- Start date
Down 645 so far today. I'm really getting tired of this "correction."
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
What's the deal with all the new leasing only residential developments in NJ. There so many out there to apparently unburden the housing crisis. They've been redeveloping farm land and knocking down commercial spaces all over. I can easily think of a dozen communities within a mile drive of me. I'm near exit 33 off I78.
First of all where the hell did everyone come from? Not meant to be political, but migrants aren't renting these $3-5k luxury units. Second why are people that interested in leasing? I know home prices have ramped, especially for starters home. Homes over $1M really haven't gone up much.
Is the strategy for these developments to lease till there is no demand then switch over to purchase options? I used to work with the school board and superintendent of my town and enrollment was dropping, though now I don't know how they can accommodate such quick increases in enrollment. Are others seeing the same in their towns? Yeah some of these are senior and assisted living facilities, but most are not.
First of all where the hell did everyone come from? Not meant to be political, but migrants aren't renting these $3-5k luxury units. Second why are people that interested in leasing? I know home prices have ramped, especially for starters home. Homes over $1M really haven't gone up much.
Is the strategy for these developments to lease till there is no demand then switch over to purchase options? I used to work with the school board and superintendent of my town and enrollment was dropping, though now I don't know how they can accommodate such quick increases in enrollment. Are others seeing the same in their towns? Yeah some of these are senior and assisted living facilities, but most are not.
I know in Metuchen they have added hundreds of new rentals recently. 260 more under construction and a few hundred more that have been approved but not started yet. The schools are overcrowded already. The traffic is ridiculous.
What's funny is when you speak to the planning board they are certain that all these new rentals will be occupied by train commuters with no children and probably no car so, it's all good. The same company doing the work here has added 2000+ rental units in New Brunswick too.
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
Every town with a train station within walking distance is seeing the same. I looked into buying real estate by Somerville, Morristown, Garwood and Edison (by Hmart) but prices climbed 5% every month and eventually priced me out. Everyone buying those little cape cods are looking to raise the roof for two extra bedrooms and bath.
Red Mosquito
Formerly RLB the Scrapple Boy
Same is happening in Bound Brook too, and that's not even a direct train to NYC (yet🙄)
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I saw that as I some times take that station or Dunellen into Newark for the Path into NYC. I'd like to see what happens when it floods again and everyone's cars underneath are underwater. More flooding for years to come is the reality, I'm considering selling my beach rental as flood insurance goes up 10% every year and I'm already paying 6k. Many insurances are dropping customers with risky BFEs as FEMA again changed their maps and criteria.
Kaleidopete
Well-Known Member
thegock
Well-Known Member
There is a new documentary film on YouTube called "Tune Out the Noise." The film is directed by Academy Award winner Errol Morris. It is about the evolution of the efficient market theory. Contains interviews with Scholes, Merton, and Fama that are quite good, as well as quite a bit with David Booth. (When you donate a certain amount of money, the University of Chicago will name its top ten business school after you!)
If you don't have time to read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," this is only 88 minutes well spent, especially if you are at the beginning of your investment journey.
If you don't have time to read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," this is only 88 minutes well spent, especially if you are at the beginning of your investment journey.
You had me at Errol Morris.
thegock
Well-Known Member
I just finished "A History of the United States in Five Crashes" by Scott Nations, highly recommend if you have money in the markets.
High level thoughts about drawing on retirement accounts.
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I read a little bit of this and will read more after my next call. But something I heard recently is that more than half of retirees die with more money in the bank than when they retired. Talk about saving up for nothing!
They need a strategy for when one spouse is comfortable spending and the other is worried she might live past 100 despite no family members ever making it beyond 85.
i'm thinking this is like that baseball stat - people who understand money and save keep doing it.
Does that mean they under-lived?
Still flying coach instead of first class?
Waiting an extra year to buy a new
My Dad retired at 62, left us at 79, and definitely had more than when he retired.
He didn't under-live. Just wasn't extravagant (compared to his earning years)
tonyride
Don't piss off the red guy
I grew up in Metuchen and it's amazing how much it has changed, at a greater rate than other towns. What I don't understand is with the increase in population you'd think they need to build more schools but it went in the opposite direction. I went to Edgar Elementary School, Franklin Middle School, and Metuchen High School for 2 weeks before moving to Edison. I think Edgar now is a combination elementary and middle school, Franklin has been replaced by a bunch of luxury townhomes a long time ago, and Campbell elementary school that was behind Franklin has been gone for a long time also. I lived near Edgar and walked to Franklin during my middle school years (Metuchen is too small to need school buses) and I remember walking by Tommy's Pond, Pathmark (I think), and La Rosa's Pizza. The good old days. We even went to the Presbyterian Church by the train station and played little league baseball at the field there. I love the small town feel of Metuchen. It kinda still feel that way but a lot more congested with a ton more cars. I wanted to move back to Metuchen but my wife says the people there are too snobby. Anyway... I'm ready to retire in less than 2 years. Let's see how it goes.
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The mayor, who definitely has higher political aspirations, wants to grow Metuchen as big as possible without any regard to how it affects the residents. His goal is to draw people into town to spend. The current big push is the new Metuchen Arts District. They already purchased the Forum Theater and some of the properties across the street. They are taking the closed gas station and as of last night they want the property of University Radiology and it's neighbors. The theater is going to be completely knocked down and rebuilt to a larger theater for performing arts, concerts and what ever else they can use it for. They want more bars, restaurants and galleries if possible at the corner of Main and Amboy. To have sufficient parking, another 5 story parking deck is going up across the street behind the cemetery with additional retail and apartments.
All of this is less than 100 yards as the crow flies from my house. We can already hear everything that goes on downtown at night so my wife is EXTREMELY concerned. As a Construction PM, my wife has offered to help the mayor and has attended a bunch of behind the scenes meetings. The problem is their M.O. is to start something, spend a bunch of money on it and then introduce it to the public for comment knowing it is already too late to turn back. Government at its best. Bigger or more schools don't help their goals so they are ignored.
tonyride
Don't piss off the red guy
That is so sad. You're bringing back a lot more memories. I remember walking to the Forum and watch movies for $0.50. Me and my brothers got our haircuts just up the street a bit on Main St. My eye doctor was in that big old Victorian style house on the corner of Amboy and Main. We got candy and snacks at that store on the corner of Main and High Street. The daughter of the owner of Boyt Drugstore on Main St. was in my 5th grade class. The daughter of the owner of Ming's was in my brother's class. We went to the YMCA and my favorite teacher, Mrs. Brown, lived near there. What a great little town it was back then. Now on our way home from Church we drive by a big condo development on Durham Ave across from the Sports Complex. There's got to be hundreds of units in there and I see nothing being done to the streets to accommodate the amount of extra traffic coming in and out of that area. I feel bad for the residents who live there because they'll have to deal with it eventually.
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Ian F
Well-Known Member
Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission? Waiting for consensus can often mean nothing gets done. Hell... I'm running into that with the pharma project I'm working on - too many cooks with opinions... except the CM is building at 100mph and the completion date isn't changing... in the meantime, procurement has a stack of bid packages that haven't even been started yet... I'm just the sparky... tell me what it needs for power.
Development can be a double-edged sword, as you are seeing. Without knowing the politics, the bean-counter side of me looks at the financials of the city. Labor contracts = increased expenses. Inflation = increased expenses. Revenue comes from taxes. How to get more tax income? Build and build big. The alternative is to increase revenue from the existing tax base, which I'm sure they are doing already (my local in PA went up vs. last year - but not anywhere near the rate of inflation; my state tax percentage (flat tax here) hasn't changed in years). Yes, it's a bit of a Ponzi scheme as they can only build so much, but it's hard to say what the alternative is. Unlike the Federal Govt, local govts generally cannot operate in a deficit. If operational costs increase faster than tax revenue, something has to be cut.
While my grandfather definitely passed in 2000 with more than he retired with back in the 70s, he did live comfortably if well within his means. Modest cars. Nice house. A lot of travel when they retired. Spent the final years in a nice full-service community in Medford. Much of that lifestyle thought process was inherited by my mother. But my parents were relatively young when I was born, so there is no guarantee I will outlive my mother to inherit whatever is left from my grandfather, so I consider myself on my own for retirement. I started maxing out my 401k retirement contributions 20+ years ago. At 54 I have been debt-free for over 10 years. This isn't the first bit of market turmoil I've gone through... probably won't be the last...