Starting last week I have noticed more items out of stock. Not sure if it is “stocking up” or supply chain issues.
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
Big Dumb Animal
Hippo Nipples' #1 Fan
Take it down a notch. While serious this is just inciting more people to panic. Yes, avoid large gatherings, don't visit your elderly relatives. Run out and stock up like the 7th trumpet has been blown?
It's good to be cautious but don't feed into the herd mentality of mass fear. Stopping this spread also involves other people having soap and sanitizer, not hoarding more then you will ever use.
GreenMachine
Well-Known Member
a.s.
Mr. Chainring
I’m not inciting anyone. I’m stating facts. It’s already started. I’m imploring my MTB community to take this SERIOUSLY and prepare, however you need to.
Dave Taylor
Rex kwan Do
COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US - Global Research
It would be useful to read this prior article for background: China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US? By Larry Romanoff, March 04, 2020 *** As readers will recall from the earlier article (above), Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharmacologists have...
my wife is hoping the subways close. As a consultant to te PA they said the only way consultants can work from home is if the subways close. Despite the fact that their permanent employees can work from home.
Big Dumb Animal
Hippo Nipples' #1 Fan
So this along with your latest post isn't inciting? Stating that you should be prepared is one thing: stocking up, taking precautions, ect. Posting in super big bold type like you're a doctor at CDC is another thing entirely.
rick81721
Lothar
Please, this is alarmist on steroids. It spreads via airborne mucus droplets or touching contaminated surfaces, like any other respiratory disease. It is already being taken very seriously - social distancing is already happening on an unprecedented scale. Markets will rebound and trucks won't stop. Chill already
68nova200
Well-Known Member
Stop spreading panic. currently 0.00182% of the earths population has been infected. Of those confirmed cases 0.000066% of the population has died. last year alone 3 members of this forum died from heart related issues. There are 5921 members listed here on this forum. That is .05% of members died in one year from heart issues. CHILL THE HECK OUT ALREADY.
while markets may rebound I think that going to take quite a while. I’ve got cash waiting to bargain shop, but might need that to buy toilet paper on the black market.
rick81721
Lothar
Markets always rebound - from crises, recessions, depressions. Unless you need the money short-term, forget about it, keep investing regularly and focus on staying safe.
I’d feel safer if my son was back at school. He’s plowing through the food and toilet paper.
US numbers - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
check the acceleration (new cases per day change, day-over-day)
looking at the smooth parts of the bar graph
- march 5-6, the difference was 30,
- march 11-12, the difference was 89 (edit: i'm moving this down a bit)
this is the issue. if we did nothing, next week the day-over-day change would be 225, with a couple thousand new cases per day. (most likely it will be this number anyway, because of incubation, so we look to stem it two weeks out)
the mortality rate is out of line, of course, because we are just ramping up testing - but it does say that if 41 people have died, we have under-counted the infected.
The good news, only 1% have gone critical, of active cases.
now consider 1% per day at 2,000/dy going critical. project that out another week.
this is the compelling argument to act now. (it was the argument to act two weeks ago, but ya just dismiss the math guy, cause it was only a few cases) note that this is the same math/reasoning i use in the retirement thread. PERT!
Be educated, do your part. don't panic.
tip-of-the-day
do not drink isopropyl alcohol, that is for your hands,
do not wash your hands with ethyl alcohol, that is a waste of good liquor
This would be a good time to clean up the basement, or go through those boxes in the attic.
figure out which stuff to burn first. To cook the squirrel. Should take out the fox first, he keeps eating them and the rabbits.
check the acceleration (new cases per day change, day-over-day)
looking at the smooth parts of the bar graph
- march 5-6, the difference was 30,
- march 11-12, the difference was 89 (edit: i'm moving this down a bit)
this is the issue. if we did nothing, next week the day-over-day change would be 225, with a couple thousand new cases per day. (most likely it will be this number anyway, because of incubation, so we look to stem it two weeks out)
the mortality rate is out of line, of course, because we are just ramping up testing - but it does say that if 41 people have died, we have under-counted the infected.
The good news, only 1% have gone critical, of active cases.
now consider 1% per day at 2,000/dy going critical. project that out another week.
this is the compelling argument to act now. (it was the argument to act two weeks ago, but ya just dismiss the math guy, cause it was only a few cases) note that this is the same math/reasoning i use in the retirement thread. PERT!
Be educated, do your part. don't panic.
tip-of-the-day
do not drink isopropyl alcohol, that is for your hands,
do not wash your hands with ethyl alcohol, that is a waste of good liquor
This would be a good time to clean up the basement, or go through those boxes in the attic.
figure out which stuff to burn first. To cook the squirrel. Should take out the fox first, he keeps eating them and the rabbits.
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i've been following this pretty closely and agree with everything said here. This is the unfortunate reality
But if we can limit testing only the death number will rise. All the other numbers could remain perfect.
