US numbers -
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
check the acceleration (new cases per day change, day-over-day)
looking at the smooth parts of the bar graph
- march 5-6, the difference was 30,
- march 11-12, the
difference was 89
this is the issue.
if we did nothing, next week the day-over-day change would be 225, with a couple thousand new cases per day. (most likely it will be this number anyway, because of incubation, so we look to stem it two weeks out)
the mortality rate is out of line, of course, because we are just ramping up testing - but it does say that if 41 people have died, we have under-counted the infected.
The good news, only 1% have gone critical, of active cases.
now consider 1% per day at 2,000/dy going critical. project that out another week.
this is the compelling argument to act now. (it was the argument to act two weeks ago, but ya just dismiss the math guy, cause it was only a few cases) note that this is the same math/reasoning i use in the retirement thread. PERT!
Be educated, do your part. don't panic.
tip-of-the-day
do not drink isopropyl alcohol, that is for your hands,
do not wash your hands with ethyl alcohol, that is a waste of good liquor
This would be a good time to clean up the basement, or go through those boxes in the attic.
figure out which stuff to burn first. To cook the squirrel. Should take out the fox first, he keeps eating them and the rabbits.
