This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Patrick said:
they are subtracting deaths from before reporting new cases.
they are also a 11 days ahead, so hopefully their action will start to show in the numbers.

View attachment 121883
Click to expand...

Yeah but it doesn't change the shape of the graph. The larger point is, how many more in Italy will get infected? Right now they are a 0.05% of the population infected. If they get another 30K cases, they get to 0.1%. Will it get that bad? And even if it does, will it get nearly that bad here? For comparison, right now we are at 0.002% infection rate.
 
Norm said:
Yes it does. Same theory as eating a hamburger and not being full until 4 days later. We have been in self-quarantine since Friday. I understand a lot of people have not, but a good number have. So we would expect the number of cases to slow down in X days. I don't know what X is, but we are now looking at X+4 I suppose. If you say it takes 6 days to manifest itself, we are now at 10 days before we can see a change in the growth in cases.

This is too long for our society. We'll be burning shit down soon.
Click to expand...
UK was originally counting on a 14-week cycle so decided not to act now to avoid just that. Then the shit hit the fan anyway.
PS: I just cannot take Boris seriously with that haircut and look (combo blank+smirk)
 
rick81721 said:
Yeah but it doesn't change the shape of the graph. The larger point is, how many more in Italy will get infected? Right now they are a 0.05% of the population infected. If they get another 30K cases, they get to 0.1%. Will it get that bad? And even if it does, will it get nearly that bad here? For comparison, right now we are at 0.002% infection rate.
Click to expand...

it does change the shape of the 'new cases per day' graph - which is the important one.
has the acceleration subsided? reduced? when will resolved > new?

we are going to double 3 times before it stops accelerating - at a minimum. (IMHO - cause 5-14+ days incubate + asymptomatic)
If people are saying f-it in certain locations, they'll just create another peak down the road.

Will this turn into 'hot spots' like legionnaire? (i know the source is different, but given 1 person
infects many in a closed environment, like college - it works)

maybe watch italy*/france/spain numbers more than others ??
i don't trust china, or iran.

and if the pres had it, they wouldn't tell us. that would be stupid.
 
Patrick said:
it does change the shape of the 'new cases per day' graph - which is the important one.
has the acceleration subsided? reduced? when will resolved > new?
Click to expand...

How does it change the shape of the "new cases per day" graph? Add the daily deaths to the "new cases" and the graph is basically the same - the last 3 days are flat.

Patrick said:
we are going to double 3 times before it stops accelerating - at a minimum. (IMHO - cause 5-14+ days incubate + asymptomatic)
If people are saying f-it in certain locations, they'll just create another peak down the road.
Click to expand...

That's possible - but even that gets us on a prevalence basis (cases/million population) where much of western europe is - right now.

Patrick said:
maybe watch italy*/france/spain numbers more than others ??
i don't trust china, or iran.
Click to expand...

Yes Italy, France, Spain, Germany, UK are the countries to watch
 
Patrick said:
does it matter? it just shifts the data over.
they could use test date, or results date - as long as consistent, it would be the same curve.
Click to expand...

Very disappointed.

Graphically, imagine an area of unknown cases in the area to the left and below where the x and y axes meet. That area, which represents cases not yet emerged statistically is the future. Given the exponential nature of the spread, it's probably at least as large as what is in the upper right quadrant. That's what's coming. But I am just a simple debit and credit man. I give you:

@Captain Brainstorm
 
Last edited:
rick81721 said:
Ask Xi Jinping to replenish your IRA!
Click to expand...


Plus, now I have to rebalance my portfolio.

Howevah, I am glad that I don't own a restaurant or a small business.

After I finished work in my upstairs office last night, I talked to Mrs. G for a couple of hours. She had gone to the tire store, because one tire was low and setting off the warning light. OK, I'm not happy, cuz when zombie apocalypse, a vehicle rules. Then she tells me that she stopped at Home Depot for dirt. Incredible.

The cleaning lady was here today and I had to run around with my Clorox wipes and hit every door knob, light switch and faucet. I am positive that I missed some and will die. I have to go count my toilet paper. She probably grabbed one of my 888 rolls!!!
Danberry Cemetary IMG_20161012_123228.jpg
 
Last edited:
let's not forget peoples whose working in foods industry,ranchers and farmers truck deliveries not just health cares profesional providers or emergency profesional,the little guys and girls also deserve theirs efforts recognition and lets appreciate them in this pandemic apocalypso..whose i left out?oh..don't forget to stock up Condoms,you're going to need it!??
 
liong71er said:
let's not forget peoples whose working in foods industry,ranchers and farmers truck deliveries not just health cares profesional providers or emergency profesional,the little guys and girls also deserve theirs efforts recognition and lets appreciate them in this pandemic apocalypso..whose i left out?oh..don't forget to stock up Condoms,you're going to need it!??
Click to expand...
I don't know how the workers in the grocery stores, and retail are doing it, I'd be a nervous wreck. It would appear I got my vasectomy just in time for the lockdown, 3 weeks post op, I'm good to go, lol.
 
thegock said:
Very disappointed.

Graphically, imagine an area of unknown cases in the area to the left and below where the x and y axes meet. That area, which represents cases not yet emerged statistically is the future. Given the exponential nature of the spread, it's probably at least as large as what is in the upper right quadrant. That's what's coming. But I am just a simple debit and credit man. I give you:

@Captain Brainstorm
Click to expand...

if we are consistent, confirmed is a proxy for actual - the ratio will be consistent (it may be non-linear)

if death rate is real time, and mortality is 1%, we can use that to proxy infected.
 
Mahnken said:
I don't know how the workers in the grocery stores, and retail are doing it, I'd be a nervous wreck. It would appear I got my vasectomy just in time for the lockdown, 3 weeks post op, I'm good to go, lol.
Click to expand...

If you're part of or live with someone who is part of a high risk demographic then I get it. Otherwise you'll be fine. All the shutdowns are to try and prevent/slow the spread of the virus to sensitive groups in hopes the number of simultaneous severe cases doesn't exceed available ventilators. This thing is not a death sentence for most of us...not even close.

I am comfortable with going into public with limited interaction (social distancing). I don't and won't interact with sensitive groups. I'll do my part to #flattenthecurve. I think it's important to understand the objective we are trying to achieve. This thing is here. A lot of us are going to get it. It's just a matter of when.

I agree with @Captain Brainstorm that there is way more to this than a math equation but really the math is dictating the current state of affairs. Is it an over-reaction? No. I don't think so. How can you put a value on a life or two or a thousand, or more?
 
Last edited:
liong71er said:
let's not forget peoples whose working in foods industry,ranchers and farmers truck deliveries not just health cares profesional providers or emergency profesional,the little guys and girls also deserve theirs efforts recognition and lets appreciate them in this pandemic apocalypso..whose i left out?oh..don't forget to stock up Condoms,you're going to need it!??
Click to expand...

my son loves balloon animals
 
Q: what does the area under the curve mean? Also tell me the difference.

A: They predict the same number of people infected, just at a different rate, which means a longer time period.

1584494743447.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom