This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Norm · Mar 25, 2020

serviceguy said:
He can't.

Correct.

Take 1000 people at random from NYC
Take 1000 people at random from Idaho

Which set of people will have a higher rate of infection?

rick81721 · Mar 25, 2020

Patrick said:
on any day 1000 get sick from non-cv
on any day there are 25% more people sick of CV than the day before
they all go get tested
the total number of people getting tested goes up.
every day the percentage of people sick from CV goes up

first column "newly sick"
second column "newly sick from CV"

sick sick from CV # tested %positive
1000 100 1100 9.09%
1000 125 1125 11.11%
1000 156 1156 13.51%
1000 195 1195 16.34%
1000 244 1244 19.62%
1000 305 1305 23.38%
1000 381 1381 27.61%
1000 477 1477 32.29%
1000 596 1596 37.35%
1000 745 1745 42.70%
1000 931 1931 48.22%
1000 1164 2164 53.79%
1000 1455 2455 59.27%
1000 1819 2819 64.53%
1000 2274 3274 69.45%

so your basic assumption is that everywhere the covid cases grow by 25% daily? oookay!

rick81721 · Mar 25, 2020

Patrick said:
Yes, but i can claim it. i'll give you 25% of the world can't catch it. Another 15% won't catch it (cause herd immunity) leaving only 4B people getting it.

come on man! you're just flat out making up numbers!

serviceguy · Mar 25, 2020

Mathers said:
Highest score wins a day with @Norm to test his theory on immunity

View attachment 122940

Is that serious? I scored 3 points based on my travel history with Italy (I am ass-u-ming beyond the 14 days mentioned at the previous issue). How does hydrating and use proper personal hygiene improve that in preparation for the after 2-days re-evaluation or what should I observer?

serviceguy · Mar 25, 2020

rick81721 said:
come on man! you're just flat out making up numbers!

I came up with that theory at the beginning of the thread. And he likes to use some complicated word he's already used in some other thread before. I keep saying it, but nobody listen to me!

rick81721 · Mar 25, 2020

Patrick said:
Updated to yesterday's numbers. 1 day growth rate. I'll do this every day,
then average it out. 10% is about 7 days to double,

State Total New %new
Montana 46 1 2.2%
North Dakota 34 2 6.3%
New Hampshire 108 7 6.9%
South Dakota 30 2 7.1%
Oregon 209 18 9.4%
Wisconsin 457 41 9.9%
Maine 118 11 10.3%
Guam 32 3 10.3%
Washington 2,469 248 11.2%
Minnesota 262 27 11.5%
Alaska 36 4 12.5%
Nevada 278 33 13.5%
Virginia 290 36 14.2%
South Carolina 342 43 14.4%
Wyoming 30 4 15.4%
Utah 298 41 16.0%
Hawaii 90 13 16.9%
Rhode Island 124 18 17.0%
Arkansas 232 35 17.8%
Iowa 124 19 18.1%
Louisiana 1,388 216 18.4%
Illinois 1,535 250 19.5%
Kansas 98 16 19.5%
Florida 1,467 240 19.6%
California 2,566 433 20.3%
New Mexico 100 17 20.5%
Maryland 349 61 21.2%
North Carolina 498 88 21.5%
Nebraska 61 11 22.0%
Alabama 242 46 23.5%
West Virginia 20 4 25.0%
Tennessee 773 158 25.7%
Puerto Rico 39 8 25.8%
New York 26,348 5473 26.2%
Kentucky 157 33 26.6%
Colorado 912 192 26.7%
Vermont 95 20 26.7%
Texas 1,023 217 26.9%
Ohio 564 122 27.6%
Mississippi 320 71 28.5%
New Jersey 3,675 831 29.2%
Oklahoma 106 25 30.9%
Pennsylvania 851 207 32.1%
District Of Columbia 183 46 33.6%
Michigan 1,791 463 34.9%
Georgia 1,097 294 36.6%
Missouri 270 74 37.8%
Arizona 326 92 39.3%
Indiana 365 106 40.9%
Connecticut 618 203 48.9%
Massachusetts 1,159 382 49.2%
Delaware 104 36 52.9%
Idaho 81 34 72.3%

this is meaningless unless to graph the % growth for each state over at least a 3 week period.

jklett · Mar 25, 2020

Mathers said:
Highest score wins a day with @Norm to test his theory on immunity

View attachment 122940

Is that like the list of stuff you need to renew your driver's license?

Paul H · Mar 25, 2020

serviceguy said:
Is that serious? I scored 3 points based on my travel history with Italy (I am ass-u-ming beyond the 14 days mentioned at the previous issue). How does hydrating and use proper personal hygiene improve that in preparation for the after 2-days re-evaluation or what should I observer?

Add 3 more.... your travel to NYC

Fat Trout · Mar 25, 2020

Mathers said:
Highest score wins a day with @Norm to test his theory on immunity

View attachment 122940

How many points if this thread gives you a headache?

Paul H · Mar 25, 2020

jklett said:
Is that like the list of stuff you need to renew your driver's license?

Could be prepping DMV forms for post apocalyptic NYS

68nova200 · Mar 25, 2020

Patrick said:
Yes, but i can claim it. i'll give you 25% of the world can't catch it. Another 15% won't catch it (cause herd immunity) leaving only 4B people getting it.

I think its safe to say that 80 to 90% of the world will not get it even if they come in direct contact with it. The immune system is extremely powerful and fights off hoards of illnesses daily...

rick81721 · Mar 25, 2020

Mathers said:
Highest score wins a day with @Norm to test his theory on immunity

View attachment 122940

zero!

serviceguy · Mar 25, 2020

Norm said:
Correct.

Take 1000 people at random from NYC
Take 1000 people at random from Idaho

Which set of people will have a higher rate of infection?

NYC, because potatoes are known to kill COVID-19. I think. Didn't someone say something about it?

A Potted Plant · Mar 25, 2020

Patrick said:
on any day 1000 get sick from non-cv
on any day there are 25% more people sick of CV than the day before
they all go get tested
the total number of people getting tested goes up.
every day the percentage of people sick from CV goes up

first column "newly sick"
second column "newly sick from CV"

sick sick from CV # tested %positive
1000 100 1100 9.09%
1000 125 1125 11.11%
1000 156 1156 13.51%
1000 195 1195 16.34%
1000 244 1244 19.62%
1000 305 1305 23.38%
1000 381 1381 27.61%
1000 477 1477 32.29%
1000 596 1596 37.35%
1000 745 1745 42.70%
1000 931 1931 48.22%
1000 1164 2164 53.79%
1000 1455 2455 59.27%
1000 1819 2819 64.53%
1000 2274 3274 69.45%

where are you getting your data from just corrupted my outlook suite so I'm going to kill some time and make you a tableau dashboard with angry norm faces

Paul H · Mar 25, 2020

serviceguy said:
NYC, because potatoes are known to kill COVID-19. I think. Didn't someone say something about it?

My only question is... is it only Idaho potatoes?

Mathers · Mar 25, 2020

jklett said:
Is that like the list of stuff you need to renew your driver's license?

That's exactly what I thought 😀

rick81721 · Mar 25, 2020

68nova200 said:
I think its safe to say that 80 to 90% of the world will not get it even if they come in direct contact with it. The immune system is extremely powerful and fights off hoards of illnesses daily...

Keep watching Italy, the worst case scenario. Their growth rate of new cases has stopped, they are at a prevalence of 1200/1M. That's a little over 0.1% . Could they get to 1%? Maybe

serviceguy · Mar 25, 2020

Paul H said:
Add 3 more.... your travel to NYC

About that...if I were to go and change the tapes at the NYC office again I would have to quarantine myself for 15 days. So that ship has sailed now.

Paul H said:
My only question is... is it only Idaho potatoes?

You should ask @Norm ...you know the drill!

Mahnken · Mar 25, 2020

68nova200 said:
I think its safe to say that 80 to 90% of the world will not get it even if they come in direct contact with it. The immune system is extremely powerful and fights off hoards of illnesses daily...

Only this is a novel virus that our body hasn't seen before. A strong immune response can actually be causing healthy people to get extremely sick with this.

UtahJoe · Mar 25, 2020

New Jersey coronavirus cases surge to 4,402 with 62 deaths. Officials announce 736 new cases.

So IIRC yesterday we had like 840 new cases....if im doing the simple math in my head, doesnt that mean that new cases went down by roughly 15%? Im also assuming that new cases are using approx. 12pm as a cut off time.

sick	sick from CV	# tested	%positive
1000	100	1100	9.09%
1000	125	1125	11.11%
1000	156	1156	13.51%
1000	195	1195	16.34%
1000	244	1244	19.62%
1000	305	1305	23.38%
1000	381	1381	27.61%
1000	477	1477	32.29%
1000	596	1596	37.35%
1000	745	1745	42.70%
1000	931	1931	48.22%
1000	1164	2164	53.79%
1000	1455	2455	59.27%
1000	1819	2819	64.53%
1000	2274	3274	69.45%

State	Total	New	%new
Montana	46	1	2.2%
North Dakota	34	2	6.3%
New Hampshire	108	7	6.9%
South Dakota	30	2	7.1%
Oregon	209	18	9.4%
Wisconsin	457	41	9.9%
Maine	118	11	10.3%
Guam	32	3	10.3%
Washington	2,469	248	11.2%
Minnesota	262	27	11.5%
Alaska	36	4	12.5%
Nevada	278	33	13.5%
Virginia	290	36	14.2%
South Carolina	342	43	14.4%
Wyoming	30	4	15.4%
Utah	298	41	16.0%
Hawaii	90	13	16.9%
Rhode Island	124	18	17.0%
Arkansas	232	35	17.8%
Iowa	124	19	18.1%
Louisiana	1,388	216	18.4%
Illinois	1,535	250	19.5%
Kansas	98	16	19.5%
Florida	1,467	240	19.6%
California	2,566	433	20.3%
New Mexico	100	17	20.5%
Maryland	349	61	21.2%
North Carolina	498	88	21.5%
Nebraska	61	11	22.0%
Alabama	242	46	23.5%
West Virginia	20	4	25.0%
Tennessee	773	158	25.7%
Puerto Rico	39	8	25.8%
New York	26,348	5473	26.2%
Kentucky	157	33	26.6%
Colorado	912	192	26.7%
Vermont	95	20	26.7%
Texas	1,023	217	26.9%
Ohio	564	122	27.6%
Mississippi	320	71	28.5%
New Jersey	3,675	831	29.2%
Oklahoma	106	25	30.9%
Pennsylvania	851	207	32.1%
District Of Columbia	183	46	33.6%
Michigan	1,791	463	34.9%
Georgia	1,097	294	36.6%
Missouri	270	74	37.8%
Arizona	326	92	39.3%
Indiana	365	106	40.9%
Connecticut	618	203	48.9%
Massachusetts	1,159	382	49.2%
Delaware	104	36	52.9%
Idaho	81	34	72.3%

This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

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