This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[Mahnken]

These updates are great - keep them coming. On the surface seems like there is a sizable disconnect between what we are being fed and what is reality - no surprise there, but its good to get this message out.

A report from one hospital is fairly useless. I work in a system that has three new Jersey hospitals (the rest are in the Philly area), the one I work for is pretty empty. Another one that's 8 miles away is quite a bit more full. The third, 10 miles away, is getting slammed. They aren't transferring patients between the hospitals to even it out, they're moving staff around and making new spaces in the hospital to accommodate the demand.
If it were as easy as shipping patients all over the state to even things out across the board, we'd maybe be in decent shape. But that's a logistical nightmare and puts more people at risk than there needs to be.

 

[Mahnken]

ya, I am trying to be as clear as possible that im only talking about Morristown, or in this case the AHS hospitals...not saying Newark Beth (where my mom works) isnt struggling

With regards to my wife being stressed with all of this.....I asked her when she got home the other night how she was doing dealing with the covid patients....She then told me that she had a 13 yr old girl come in who they diagnosed (confirmed) with Leukemia.... Shes wasnt making light of Covid, but she wanted me to know that informing this little girl and her parent of this news was more stressful.

Even without the pandemic, any given day in that job can wreck you. Emotionally, physically, spiritually...

 

[Mathers]

doesn't happen at the new pumps - requires an attendant card. perhaps they 'time out' after being idle?
this lets them track the attendant performance at busier stations.

I pump my own using my CC

 

[thegock]

Bonnie?

Didn't get her name (or number,) but I asked her what the alcohol content was on a beer she was offering and she snarled that I "should look it up on my smart phone!" Really?

 

[JerseyPete]

Didn't get her name (or number,) but I asked her what the alcohol content was on a beer she was offering and she snarled that I "should look it up on my smart phone!" Really?

It looks like a nice place when I Googled it. There were pictures from the owner. There is one with two women holding a head, is she in one?

 

[Patrick]

A report from one hospital is fairly useless. I work in a system that has three new Jersey hospitals (the rest are in the Philly area), the one I work for is pretty empty. Another one that's 8 miles away is quite a bit more full. The third, 10 miles away, is getting slammed. They aren't transferring patients between the hospitals to even it out, they're moving staff around and making new spaces in the hospital to accommodate the demand.
If it were as easy as shipping patients all over the state to even things out across the board, we'd maybe be in decent shape. But that's a logistical nightmare and puts more people at risk than there needs to be.

So reading about converting all these spaces to be prepared def raises my trust in the hospital system.
They are planning for a possible worst case, and if it doesn't happen - they have a framework for doing it again if needed.

taking a look at the deaths per 1M, i'd say our system is doing great.
spain has 2x the number of cases per 1M and 4x the deaths.
we are somewhat in-line with france, but they have 2x the deaths.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,868,982 Cases and 2,727,738 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

given our absolute number, the "care capacity" is impressive.
(spain and france population combined is about 1/3 of the US)

so we are either under-counting deaths, or doing a good job. I'm going with great job.

Catch you all later - got my mask, and need to hit lowes and the groceteria.

 

[thegock]

It looks like a nice place when I Googled it. There were pictures from the owner. There is one with two women holding a head, is she in one?

They have good wings, but lousy service. Not that there is anything wrong with short, fat and surly.

 

[A Potted Plant]

I guess this forum is filled with independently wealthy people who can tolerate an absolutely destroyed economy because a few people died.
Aren't you the dude that has been banned multiple times for posting too much? At least my posts make sense...

I aint rich, I can be homeless and still hug my son but I can't do that if one of us are dead. If chances of dying to corona virus was the same for roller coasters would you go? You're looking at it wrong, seeing as corona virus killing you doesn't but it in perspective. It just isn't worth it to me to die over going to work which is why I told my wife(Nurse) to quit her job if she thinks the risk is inappropriate, no job is worth dying for.

 

[phillychris498]

I pump my own using my CC

Wait.... you guys know how to pump gas???

 

[UtahJoe]

I aint rich, I can be homeless and still hug my son but I can't do that if one of us are dead. If chances of dying to corona virus was the same for roller coasters would you go? You're looking at it wrong, seeing as corona virus killing you doesn't but it in perspective. It just isn't worth it to me to die over going to work which is why I told my wife(Nurse) to quit her job if she thinks the risk is inappropriate, no job is worth dying for.

would she quit?

I asked my wife this question, she said she would still go to work right now for free.....she has exactly 0 concern about health risks. (@mattybfat she also said she wouldnt do your wifes job for free or for all the money on planet earth....she has the upmost respect for what shes doing) And im not saying thats a good thing, its just how she is....I asked her about it and she said "I get exposed to everything, if it bothered me I wouldnt last one day at my job...its the job, you get exposed" Again, im not saying its a good thing...bc for easter my wife thinks nothing of "hey im going to the store to get easter decorations" me: "why would you do that? order it on amazon or better yet...fuck easter decorations right now" At least shes wearing an n95 when she goes anywhere now.

Even without the pandemic, any given day in that job can wreck you. Emotionally, physically, spiritually...

For sure...I mean its been 15 years of her telling me these stories and 1000 times worse...that would wreck me to have to tell people that news.

 

[Mathers]

Wait.... you guys know how to pump gas???

I know right ? . I’m glad we have gas pumpers.

 

[Santapez]

we can only work with the data we have, and model based on it.
if the data changes, the models change.

This follows my original thinking. I don't think i've moved off of it - but i am being swayed by the asymptomatic rates.

Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?

We’re currently battling a global pandemic unlike any we’ve seen in over a century. But it’s also not the first modern virus we’ve faced.

fivethirtyeight.com

my one question would be 'What is the asymptomatic rate in the 60/70/80 age cohorts x co-morbidity?" -
Seems like some of these group living facilities can really take a beating.
Worse than the cruise ships?

I'm still not convinced the testing rate is making a difference - nj was testing 30% positive because of vetting.
if they loosen the requirements for testing, how many more are they going to find? if they tripled the number of tests,
to get it down to the 10% other places are seeing - what will it really go down to? 12%? TBD i guess.

As Rick noted, staged re-open. But who is going out into the wild when they do?
is the 60+ crowd going to get together for twofers at 4pm? That buffet isn't looking so good now.
How normal can it be until there is a vaccine or proven treatment?

Did anyone see the article that touted the "imperfect vaccine" - just enough warning for the body that if you do get it,
that the system is ready for it. Interesting approach - may be easier to create than one which is 100% effective.
Might be cool to make it corona centric, rather than strain specific - not sure if possible. just blue-sky.

-I'll be out eating 2 meals a day at restaurants. The over 60 crowd should be careful and ease back in. If I was 50+ I'd be staying at home. Considering that we're looking at a flat curve and going down, I personally believe we should be opening up a little bit now, although just slightly. I don't know what that should be just because anything opening will probably get overloaded. We can start with the State Parks for sure...

-I don't see how the Vaccine is a viable solution. No real experts believe a fully tested vaccine will be available in the near future. The prior testing with the SARS (similar virus) vaccine led to people who got exposure after the vaccine having worse results than those who did not receive the vaccine. Vaccine would be great, but we can't plan around it.

 

[A Potted Plant]

would she quit?

I asked my wife this question, she said she would still go to work right now for free.....she has exactly 0 concern about health risks. (@mattybfat she also said she wouldnt do your wifes job for free or for all the money on planet earth....she has the upmost respect for what shes doing) And im not saying thats a good thing, its just how she is....I asked her about it and she said "I get exposed to everything, if it bothered me I wouldnt last one day at my job...its the job, you get exposed" Again, im not saying its a good thing...bc for easter my wife thinks nothing of "hey im going to the store to get easter decorations" me: "why would you do that? order it on amazon or better yet...fuck easter decorations right now" At least shes wearing an n95 when she goes anywhere now.

For sure...I mean its been 15 years of her telling me these stories and 1000 times worse...that would wreck me to have to tell people that news.

My son is high risk she had and will continue to evaluate.

Who gains if she worked for free, I don't understand that. Atlantic health is still going to bill patients.

 

[xc62701]

-I'll be out eating 2 meals a day at restaurants. The over 60 crowd should be careful and ease back in. If I was 50+ I'd be staying at home. Considering that we're looking at a flat curve and going down, I personally believe we should be opening up a little bit now, although just slightly. I don't know what that should be just because anything opening will probably get overloaded. We can start with the State Parks for sure...

-I don't see how the Vaccine is a viable solution. No real experts believe a fully tested vaccine will be available in the near future. The prior testing with the SARS (similar virus) vaccine led to people who got exposure after the vaccine having worse results than those who did not receive the vaccine. Vaccine would be great, but we can't plan around it.

I would tend to agree with the opening if we were all smart. That has proven otherwise. As soon as you say we will open something 1%, many in the public would interpret this as being over and go back to daily life. It's better safe than sorry it seems and I'm ok with that. Schools should 100% not be going back this year. There is NO WAY to social distance given busses, large classes, and even just passing the the hallways. Even though it for the most part wouldn't affect most of the kids, if there is transmission then their families will be put at risk. The economy does need to be open, but schools do not have to be part of that plan for now.

 

[rick81721]

Interesting read on Sweden. Still seeing no signs of a spike in cases

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/in-sw...han-state-enforced-lockdowns-in-the-long-run/

 

[Santa]

We have no choice but to begin opening. Realistically we can not stay shut forever unfortunately. On another note I am running out of pay shortly so I need to work.

 

[ebarker9]

Considering that we're looking at a flat curve and going down, I personally believe we should be opening up a little bit now, although just slightly.

Curious what is going down? The rate of increase seems to have stabilized for most metrics (deaths and new cases), but I haven't seen anything indicating that there's a decrease. And why should the stabilization of growth mean that we should ease restrictions intended to control growth? Not trying to argue, because it's obviously a difficult question about when to make changes, but I guess I don't see why now is "the time" to be backing off of measures that so far seem to be working.

 

[UtahJoe]

My son is high risk she had and will continue to evaluate.

Who gains if she worked for free, I don't understand that. Atlantic health is still going to bill patients.

She was just making the point that she loves her job and loves being with her friends at work...however, im sure she wouldnt work for very long without being paid...But moreso that shes not concerned with working on covid patients. Oh, she said since April 9th, they are now getting hazard pay.

I would tend to agree with the opening if we were all smart. That has proven otherwise. As soon as you say we will open something 1%, many in the public would interpret this as being over and go back to daily life. It's better safe than sorry it seems and I'm ok with that. Schools should 100% not be going back this year. There is NO WAY to social distance given busses, large classes, and even just passing the the hallways. Even though it for the most part wouldn't affect most of the kids, if there is transmission then their families will be put at risk. The economy does need to be open, but schools do not have to be part of that plan for now.

Is what it is, but i would 100% send my kid back to school tomorrow and risk any illness....what is happening to him right now is in my opinion worse than him maybe giving me or my wife covid. My wife has had to admit a total of 0 kids his age with covid, so im not too worried about him getting sick.

 

[rick81721]

-I'll be out eating 2 meals a day at restaurants. The over 60 crowd should be careful and ease back in. If I was 50+ I'd be staying at home. Considering that we're looking at a flat curve and going down, I personally believe we should be opening up a little bit now, although just slightly. I don't know what that should be just because anything opening will probably get overloaded. We can start with the State Parks for sure...

-I don't see how the Vaccine is a viable solution. No real experts believe a fully tested vaccine will be available in the near future. The prior testing with the SARS (similar virus) vaccine led to people who got exposure after the vaccine having worse results than those who did not receive the vaccine. Vaccine would be great, but we can't plan around it.

I'm 60+ and am not nor do I plan to stay home. I have no comorbidities - perhaps if I did it would be a different story.

Vaccine - what's your definition of "near future" - early next year is likely. Oddly enough, the one factor that will most slow down a vaccine is if covid disappears during the summer - we need a large population of circulating disease to confirm efficacy.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rately-infecting-volunteers-not-so-fast-some#

 

[rick81721]

Curious what is going down? The rate of increase seems to have stabilized for most metrics (deaths and new cases), but I haven't seen anything indicating that there's a decrease. And why should the stabilization of growth mean that we should ease restrictions intended to control growth? Not trying to argue, because it's obviously a difficult question about when to make changes, but I guess I don't see why now is "the time" to be backing off of measures that so far seem to be working.

There are decreases in new cases per day, deaths per day and hospitalizations per day. Do you think everyone should wait until there are no new cases before opening back up?? It will be a very deliberate and phased re-opening - I don't understand why people seem to think it's going to be a blanket "everyone go back to normal" situation.