This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

My neighbor threw herself a "social distancing birthday party" last night. Started with everyone with masks sitting 6+ feet apart at about 4pm. By 11 there were 30+ people in the driveway doing shots. That was after the cops left.
 
THATmanMANNY said:
the roads are absolutely crazy now
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Roads have been crazy all through the shutdown, just getting crazier. Daily commute on 295 btw exit 29 and 45. Got passed on the right hand shoulder while doing 75 in the right lane by a dude in a Miata using hand signals to change lanes instead of blinkers.
 
thegock said:
9,585 New cases in FLA today.
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yep but only 24 more deaths. Something strange is going on down there - hospitalizations and deaths still aren't increasing. At some point they have to go up, the question is by how much. That comparison I did the other day of deaths in NJ vs FL, if you do the same analysis on new cases going back two weeks (starting w/o Jun 4), NJ found 3900 new cases that resulted in 257 deaths 2 weeks later. FL found 8600 new cases that resulted in 265 deaths 2 weeks later.

Anywho, going back 2 weeks from monday to get the A'C serviced and see what's going on. Will Murphy let me come back??
 
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rick81721 said:
yep but only 24 more deaths. Something strange is going on down there - hospitalizations and deaths still aren't increasing. At some point they have to go up, the question is by how much. That comparison I did the other day of deaths in NJ vs FL, if you do the same analysis on new cases going back two weeks (starting w/o Jun 4), NJ found 3900 new cases that resulted in 257 deaths 2 weeks later. FL found 8600 new cases that resulted in 265 deaths 2 weeks later.

Anywho, going back 2 weeks from monday to get the A'C serviced and see what's going on. Will Murphy let me come back??
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Going to need to pick up the wahoo from u b4 you go back... May not see you for a while if u go back.
 
Maybe leveling off but no spike yet, why the hysteria? :shrug:

Corona.png

I love all the reporting now on gross number of positive cases with no mention of percentage of total tests.
 
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GSTim said:
I love all the reporting now on gross number of positive cases with no mention of percentage of total tests.
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It's pretty annoying shock news with no real info. The headlines scream about record cases in XX place. Of course there's record total cases, cases will never go down, only up.

Are the hospitals going to be overloaded? Tell me that.
 
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GSTim said:
reporting now on gross number of positive cases
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they need to start reporting on why they were tested - symptoms, random, contact, and whether they became symptomatic after a surprise positive.
It can't be that many - and if they became symptomatic, they would have been tested, and found positive anyway.
So all it is doing it moving the number up a couple of days.

Here is the TX graphs - they are seeing the deaths move up. same trailing 10-14 days as we saw in our area.


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Patrick said:
they need to start reporting on why they were tested - symptoms, random, contact, and whether they became symptomatic after a surprise positive.
It can't be that many - and if they became symptomatic, they would have been tested, and found positive anyway.
So all it is doing it moving the number up a couple of days.

Here is the TX graphs - they are seeing the deaths move up. same trailing 10-14 days as we saw in our area.


View attachment 133071
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Very small increase in deaths for the large increase in new cases.

Here's an interesting tidbit - latest 7 days, people are still dying at a higher rate per population in NJ than FL.
 
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GSTim said:
Maybe leveling off but no spike yet, why the hysteria? :shrug:
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We've been to this party before. Deaths are a lagging indicator. 2 weeks ago we were seeing 20k new cases/day. Now we're at 40k. There's some optimism that there are more younger people testing positive and they generally have a better outcome.

Current 7 day moving average is about 500 deaths/day. 184 days left in the year. That puts us at 220k deaths by year end if we merely 'level out'. That seems like a lot. :shrug:

I love all the reporting now on gross number of positive cases with no mention of percentage of total tests.
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I'm not sure what I'm reading differently but I hear that in all kinds of news reports. Here's some source data. The 7 day moving average has gone from about 4.5% to 7% in the past 2 weeks.
 
rick81721 said:
Very small increase in deaths for the large increase in new cases.
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Agree - hopefully that trend continues. Hospital beds are getting tight in the hotspots of California and AZ.

And we are reaching the july 4th target where I thought we'd know more about the direction.
It isn't going away in the summer.
Large crowds with talking loud/singing are high risk.

When will they make the call about middle school/high school/colleges ?
 
Patrick said:
Agree - hopefully that trend continues. Hospital beds are getting tight in the hotspots of California and AZ.

And we are reaching the july 4th target where I thought we'd know more about the direction.
It isn't going away in the summer.
Large crowds with talking loud/singing are high risk.

When will they make the call about middle school/high school/colleges ?
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My son's new school (Bloomsburg) told him all dorms will be singles in the fall. Not sure how they are going to pull that off?
 
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