Tariffs...what to make of them.

Mtbdog said:
Facts or Fiction?
View attachment 271686 
Click to expand...

we have always used tariffs,
it isn't anything new.
Just not at this level on everything across the board,
then start negotiating.

We created a trading block with Canada and Mexico - NAFTA, so businesses could invest in the places that made the most sense
without hindrance. Canada has plenty of wood, mexico has tequila, we need to build more bars. works out.
(we share technical efficiencies, they share a larger skilled labor pool)
Now they run commercials and charge reciprocal tariffs, and nobody likes Canadian club up there.

We can't look at inflation numbers coming out of COVID, been through that before.
Otherwise you need to look at the other side and say how the economy contracted under the trump admin #1 in 2020.

are we going to claim the market gains from the lows?
the 10 yr return of the Vanguard total market fund is 14% per year
it is up a bit more than 16% YTD. (hint: this is annualized, so it is up 14% actual - if it keeps growing at the current rate it will be 16)
looks average to me.
or if you look at the 5 year return (which includes 4 of Biden - it is 16%/yr)

it is all spin.

Look at gas prices internationally.
Most countries tax the hell out of gas. https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
It is a touch point in the US - a political nightmare if they go up.
So I can say Biden had gas prices below $2/gal in 2021. or was that trump in 2020???

---

oh, on that 10 yr return, which doesn't include div reinvestment.

rule of 72 says a 14% return would have doubled your $$ twice.
$10,000->$40,000 all on auto pilot. (72/14 is 5ish, so 5 years to double)
 
I just want to thank Frank for making an actual appearance on this thread. So many of the tRUMP fans have checked out, perhaps after being called out on disinformation.

FB_IMG_1724589826233.jpg
 
thegock said:
I just want to thank Frank for making an actual appearance on this thread. So many of the tRUMP fans have checked out, perhaps after being called out on disinformation.

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I still occasional check out what's being posted here. I need to get all the right info about what's going on somewhere so what better place to look. Definitely stopped reading anything that's talked about on the right. Certainly, no truth to find there not even the slightest bit.
 
thegock said:
I just want to thank Frank for making an actual appearance on this thread. So many of the tRUMP fans have checked out, perhaps after being called out on disinformation.

View attachment 271708
Click to expand...
@thegock honestly not a big fan of trump, just thought he was the lesser of two evils. When a political party doesn't realize their candidate is a stuffed suit 3 months before the election I felt I couldn't trust that party. Lost my vote and support this time around. Maybe next time and there will be a next time,agreed?
 
I personally don’t think there will be a next time. There is a reason the GOP is ok with all this sending troops to cities for no reason. They will declare an emergency, send troops all over the country and take the voting machines into custody and declare them selves the winners.
 
Mtbdog said:
Facts or Fiction?
View attachment 271686 
Click to expand...
You should read this Frank https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/ai-bubble-cisco-moment-dotcom-crash-nvidia-jensen-huang-top-analyst/

75% of gains, 80% of profits, 90% of capex this year has been spending on AI...this giant AI bubble that is happening...Sam Altman (open AI), Meta, Apple...Why are they pouring billions into this when nobody is sure where its going? Because its now too big to fail...they know our government will bail them out when it pops.

And like @Patrick said....Tariffs are not a bad thing and have existed forever...but they are typically used in a purposeful manner and paired with some sort of economic policy....Not just on and off randomly because someone in Canada runs a TV commercial with Regan in it. Tariffs on Chinese cars are a good thing...we have had a strong US car manufacturing industry forever....the jobs are good and well paying...the products are expensive, profitable and sell in the millions. Its why a large percentage of the cars sold in the US are also built here...Japanese, German, Korean cars included. We have had huge tariffs on Chinese cars forever now as they would damage our domestic market....our cars are outrageously expensive, but nobody seems to mind or care...they take out their 84 month loans and live in a mountain of debt.

That is not the case with lets say bikes....which require TONS of hand labor by humans...there is a great series bike radar did at the Giant factory in Taiwan. Alloy frames are hand welded...carbon laid down by hand...wheels built by hand....all great...but bikes are not $50,000 like cars...even us die hards hate spending alot of money on bikes. So we now put these tariffs on bikes with our president thinking it will move production back to the united states. Well why would any company invest billions in building a new factory A. when the tariffs could be canceled tomorrow for any reason B. When employing American welders our American companies couldn't make a profit, so they moved production overseas. Our American billionaires HAVE to make a profit or they are not going to make the investment....and they look at something like the bike industry...will someone pay $1000 for a bike that is selling for $300 at target? Probably not. So where is this going...tariffs will make bikes more expensive...we will still buy them, but many people wont. Sales will decline...we will see less and less bike shops....but tariffs are not bringing production back to the US.....Ask Jeff Lenosky who works for Reeb...they make bikes in the US and guess what...they are getting hammered by tariffs....why? because there is no American manufacturer that makes the alloy tubing they need...we now have tariffs on steel and aluminum...not to mention you can make a steel frame in the USA, but every other component on the bike is made elsewhere. This is what I mean by economic policy...we should be helping companies like Reeb, but instead we are hurting them more. They need to be thrown a bone for employing US workers...like an exemption for tariffs on metal or parts, etc. This is only getting done for companies like apple...whose CEO can go to the white house with a gold based CD and walk out with a deal....The president of Reeb can't do that.

You love wwii....we are 1930s germany...the only things we produce are high tech and expensive. Cars, medical supplies, military equipment, etc



​

 
me
cyanpaon.gif
 
UtahJoe said:
Just put it in the bank until the court case is done...it might have to go back
Click to expand...
It will be a clusterf**k if the tariffs have to be repaid. They've collected over $200bn already, and the federal budget accounts for the future revenue. Seems like it could create some unexpected windfalls for companies that were able to pass on all or most of the costs to consumers. Seems unlikely that any refunds would trickle down to consumers, lol. Trump is going around saying that the impact would be $3 trillion and is trying to use that to influence the Supreme court decision. Shouldn't the court's decision be based strictly on the legality part?
 
UtahJoe said:
You should read this Frank https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/ai-bubble-cisco-moment-dotcom-crash-nvidia-jensen-huang-top-analyst/

75% of gains, 80% of profits, 90% of capex this year has been spending on AI...this giant AI bubble that is happening...Sam Altman (open AI), Meta, Apple...Why are they pouring billions into this when nobody is sure where its going? Because its now too big to fail...they know our government will bail them out when it pops.

And like @Patrick said....Tariffs are not a bad thing and have existed forever...but they are typically used in a purposeful manner and paired with some sort of economic policy....Not just on and off randomly because someone in Canada runs a TV commercial with Regan in it. Tariffs on Chinese cars are a good thing...we have had a strong US car manufacturing industry forever....the jobs are good and well paying...the products are expensive, profitable and sell in the millions. Its why a large percentage of the cars sold in the US are also built here...Japanese, German, Korean cars included. We have had huge tariffs on Chinese cars forever now as they would damage our domestic market....our cars are outrageously expensive, but nobody seems to mind or care...they take out their 84 month loans and live in a mountain of debt.

That is not the case with lets say bikes....which require TONS of hand labor by humans...there is a great series bike radar did at the Giant factory in Taiwan. Alloy frames are hand welded...carbon laid down by hand...wheels built by hand....all great...but bikes are not $50,000 like cars...even us die hards hate spending alot of money on bikes. So we now put these tariffs on bikes with our president thinking it will move production back to the united states. Well why would any company invest billions in building a new factory A. when the tariffs could be canceled tomorrow for any reason B. When employing American welders our American companies couldn't make a profit, so they moved production overseas. Our American billionaires HAVE to make a profit or they are not going to make the investment....and they look at something like the bike industry...will someone pay $1000 for a bike that is selling for $300 at target? Probably not. So where is this going...tariffs will make bikes more expensive...we will still buy them, but many people wont. Sales will decline...we will see less and less bike shops....but tariffs are not bringing production back to the US.....Ask Jeff Lenosky who works for Reeb...they make bikes in the US and guess what...they are getting hammered by tariffs....why? because there is no American manufacturer that makes the alloy tubing they need...we now have tariffs on steel and aluminum...not to mention you can make a steel frame in the USA, but every other component on the bike is made elsewhere. This is what I mean by economic policy...we should be helping companies like Reeb, but instead we are hurting them more. They need to be thrown a bone for employing US workers...like an exemption for tariffs on metal or parts, etc. This is only getting done for companies like apple...whose CEO can go to the white house with a gold based CD and walk out with a deal....The president of Reeb can't do that.

You love wwii....we are 1930s germany...the only things we produce are high tech and expensive. Cars, medical supplies, military equipment, etc



​

Click to expand...
That was wordy to say you believe it's fiction got it. That's all I was asking, thank you.
We are 1930's Germany is absolutely delusional.
 
Mtbdog said:
That was wordy to say you believe it's fiction got it. That's all I was asking, thank you.
We are 1930's Germany is absolutely delusional
Click to expand...

We have the most high tech military equipment on the planet (which all require resources we don't possess) most high tech tanks, guns, planes, ships.... Absolutely nothing like we had during wwii where willow run could knock out 7000 b24s in a few years....same problem nazi Germany had.... They were a society that made high end, expensive, quality things... But relied on others for imported goods and resources... Just like we do now. How many times does Trump have to tell you about rare earth's?
 
Patrick said:
we have always used tariffs,
it isn't anything new.
Just not at this level on everything across the board,
then start negotiating.

We created a trading block with Canada and Mexico - NAFTA, so businesses could invest in the places that made the most sense
without hindrance. Canada has plenty of wood, mexico has tequila, we need to build more bars. works out.
(we share technical efficiencies, they share a larger skilled labor pool)
Now they run commercials and charge reciprocal tariffs, and nobody likes Canadian club up there.

We can't look at inflation numbers coming out of COVID, been through that before.
Otherwise you need to look at the other side and say how the economy contracted under the trump admin #1 in 2020.

are we going to claim the market gains from the lows?
the 10 yr return of the Vanguard total market fund is 14% per year
it is up a bit more than 16% YTD. (hint: this is annualized, so it is up 14% actual - if it keeps growing at the current rate it will be 16)
looks average to me.
or if you look at the 5 year return (which includes 4 of Biden - it is 16%/yr)

it is all spin.

Look at gas prices internationally.
Most countries tax the hell out of gas. https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
It is a touch point in the US - a political nightmare if they go up.
So I can say Biden had gas prices below $2/gal in 2021. or was that trump in 2020???

---

oh, on that 10 yr return, which doesn't include div reinvestment.

rule of 72 says a 14% return would have doubled your $$ twice.
$10,000->$40,000 all on auto pilot. (72/14 is 5ish, so 5 years to double)
Click to expand...
How are wages vs s&p? Ah, the black swan...
 
UtahJoe said:
We have the most high tech military equipment on the planet (which all require resources we don't possess) most high tech tanks, guns, planes, ships.... Absolutely nothing like we had during wwii where willow run could knock out 7000 b24s in a few years....same problem nazi Germany had.... They were a society that made high end, expensive, quality things... But relied on others for imported goods and resources... Just like we do now. How many times does Trump have to tell you about rare earth's?
Click to expand...
This is a necessity to deal with the row boats in the Caribbean.
 
Right now the top ten wealthiest Americans are worth more than the lower 50%. That will change soon. They just approved Musk's $1T pay package.
 
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