Followed by 14 day quarantine?
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
I expected you will be self quarantining for 14 days? ?
Mahnken
Well-Known Member
This is a good read:
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity
The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
www.theatlantic.com
As yes, the chaos theoryThis is a good read:
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity
The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
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its been a while since I posted, but my wife went back to work last night after her usual 3 week july vacation.....
She said the adult and peds ER were at maximum capacity yesterday....as they usually are....pre covid.... No covid patients (some they had to rule out), but traumas and other stuff...belly pain, the usual.....She did say tho, more Physc patients in the er, kids especially.
She said the adult and peds ER were at maximum capacity yesterday....as they usually are....pre covid.... No covid patients (some they had to rule out), but traumas and other stuff...belly pain, the usual.....She did say tho, more Physc patients in the er, kids especially.
Interesting - makes sense, we probably all know someone who seems to get sick all the time.
they were first in line?
yet:
it doesn't account for people over 60 doing everything possible not to be infected.
Are they to be isolated forever? Their susceptibility hasn't changed, and only gets higher over time?
I'd be more inclined to think it is behavioral over biological drivers right now. (IMHO)
they were first in line?
yet:
it doesn't account for people over 60 doing everything possible not to be infected.
Are they to be isolated forever? Their susceptibility hasn't changed, and only gets higher over time?
I'd be more inclined to think it is behavioral over biological drivers right now. (IMHO)
This is why I refer to my theory as a Saturation Point and not Herd Immunity. In Arizona, I guess NGAF so there you go.
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
Interesting article. Herd immunity eventually happens. Between vaccination and exposure, we will eventually reach a threshold where everyone's immune system is no longer naïve to the virus. With something like influenza or coronavirus, you never reach herd immunity in the traditional sense because viral mutations will always give rise to newly infectious strains (the mutation rate of COVID19 has not been definitively defined), but you reach a point where the average infection is less severe and the rate of severe outcomes gets lower. Also, the article mentions Vietnam and Korea, however I think that they are poor examples. In Asia, coronavirus is endemic. The Asian population is a lot less immune-naïve since they've been exposed to various strains of corona over the course of their lives, and gives them cross-reactivity to the conserved proteins across strains.
Mahnken
Well-Known Member
Haven't we been exposed to various stains as well? Isn't the common cold a coronavirus?
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
Its not that simple. First, only 20% of common colds are caused by coronavirus, the rest are Rhino, RSV, etc. Coronavirus is a very broad virus family. Viral families are based on common structural elements, like protein spike in Corona (hence the name). Something like Picornavirus, for example, is also broad, including everything from Rhinovirus to Polio and Hep A. All very different diseases. COVID-19, SARS, MERS, are all related, and are thought to come from animal reservoirs common in the Middle East and Asia. So same family, but very different virus's from the strain that causes common cold.
rick81721
Lothar
What do you think of T-cell immunity contributing to "herd immunity"?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
There seems to be a point - 20% infected or higher, where new cases starts to drop off dramatically. Sweden seems to have gotten there, countries that were slammed early like Italy, France, Spain, UK, Belgium aren't seeing a "second peak", nor are the northeastern states in the US like NY, NJ, MA. When serology studies showed NY and NJ with 15-20% infected, FL was at 4%. Now it's much higher and new cases seem to have peaked and are starting to head down.
rick81721
Lothar
Yep which was pretty much what we've been doing. Won't go out to eat or shopping, will go out on solo rides. Beetlejuice Murphy says to get a covid test, will do that next week.
Shouldn’t you wait 2 weeks for test?
We are getting crushed with BH and Domestics. Heat + people tired of being cooped up with their asshole spouses/kids/partners. Kid threatening to jump off the roof, dudes slicing their chests open, running naked down Route 31 at 4am. Good times. 8 months, 13 days.
Take that desk flip it on its side.. get down behind it and stay there for the next 8 months
Captain Brainstorm
Well-Known Member
What they are basically saying in the article is that they have found memory T-Cells in exposed individuals, even patients from previous SARS infections back to 2003. Immunogenicity is linked primarily to capsid proteins, so you have some specific targets for vaccine development. Interesting enough, in the conclusion, they mention that certain structural proteins are conserved amongst different Covid virus's, from different animal species, that humans may come across. Given that this study was performed primarily with local patients (Singapore, Asia), it supports my hypothesis that the outcomes in Asia were less severe because they are less immune-naïve, therefore that population already has some innate herd immunity.
rick81721
Lothar
Short recap on experience coming back:
Flight from Tampa to Newark much more crowded than going down, maybe 50% capacity. Basically no social distancing on the plane but everyone wearing masks and captain said something about HEPA filtration system constantly cleaning the air.
Landing in Newark - oddly enough, going to Florida they made an announcement on the plane that people may need to quarantine in Florida. Coming back to NJ, they said nothing. Nor were there any notifications in the airport. Only thing visible are screens in the terminals showing a map of where new cases of covid are growing - basically the entire southern half of the US.
Also, checking the covid test sites around here, apparently you have to be a NJ resident to get tested. So I have to go back to FL for a test??
As an aside, driving to the airport yesterday between 4 and 5 pm I got hammered by fierce thunderstorms. Right before takeoff, they were still all around us, I was surprised the flight wasn't delayed. But here was something I've never seen before on a lfight - the captain came into the cabin with a handheld tablet showing the weather, and showed everyone, a section at a time, how he could take off and head east avoiding the storms, then pointed out one area where he expected some turbulence around DC. Flight was surprisingly smooth - much more so than coming down. At the end of the flight, he made a pitch thanking us for helping out the struggling airline industry, and encouraged us to keep flying.
bring your tax bill. ?
Forward looking real time radar is an amazing thing.
combine that with the uplink wide area images,
and spot-on controllers - i'm always amazed.
rustynuts
Well-Known Member
Our testing capability is quite lacking. Called my walk in clinic which is a big affiliation and results wouldn’t be back till 11 days. Need a test for a family member coming in from Nevada, who will just quarantine, anyway. Doesn’t help that he’s going to a home with two elderly parents.
I know this has been a topic of the tests being reliable and not properly handled, etc.
What is being done so testing those who need it and quickly?
I know this has been a topic of the tests being reliable and not properly handled, etc.
What is being done so testing those who need it and quickly?