This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
Mtbdog
Well-Known Member
Agree. Unfortunately, if common sense was applied here to begin with, we wouldn't be in the position we are now.
thegock
Well-Known Member
1. The CDC had updated its data for October 2021 history. It indicated that the unvaccinated are 20X more likely to die of C19 than the vaccinated. If you drill down, the death rates are 40x if over 65 years old and 30x between 50 and 65 years old.
Unvaxxed=dead
2. The CDC also recommends masking in indoor spaces where social distancing is not possible.
This is from the WSJ article on 1/4/22 that I linked in post #9357 above
“Graham Snyder, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says any quality mask that offers an effective seal and is worn correctly—covering the nose and mouth—offers protection.
Dr. Snyder says he would like data from the CDC on how Omicron spreads and whether the transmission is related to the types of masks. He is concerned about the number of people in the community who don’t wear masks of any type.
“Masking works. Period,” he says.”
But maybe we should listen to @SLIK RICK, who apparently disdains masking?
3. Just to update my post from 12/21/21 three weeks later, the 7DMA 1/9/22 dead body count is 1,477 v. 1,258 (per worldometers.com) and the C19 hospitalizations have increased from 68,000 to 134,000 (NYT 1/9/22 Julie Bosman.) Don’t forget that C19 deaths lag hospitalizations, which in turn lag cases.
So, @rick81721 , are we in a peak or a valley? I mean, your track record of forecasting is just so great that surely everyone is waiting for your insight.
12/21/21 Post #9276
“So you're asking me a question about "just like the flu" that someone else posted? And I see you spent a few days reading thru 2 year old posts for old predictions again. Drunk??
Finally re: worldometer - you still don't get the concept of peaks and valleys? And the biggest peak in deaths this year was pre-vaccine? Have another drink and review again tomorrow!”
I had only two glasses of Silver Oak Napa cab last week, cuz ur so interested in my drinking. Delicious.
Unvaxxed=dead
2. The CDC also recommends masking in indoor spaces where social distancing is not possible.
This is from the WSJ article on 1/4/22 that I linked in post #9357 above
“Graham Snyder, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says any quality mask that offers an effective seal and is worn correctly—covering the nose and mouth—offers protection.
Dr. Snyder says he would like data from the CDC on how Omicron spreads and whether the transmission is related to the types of masks. He is concerned about the number of people in the community who don’t wear masks of any type.
“Masking works. Period,” he says.”
But maybe we should listen to @SLIK RICK, who apparently disdains masking?
3. Just to update my post from 12/21/21 three weeks later, the 7DMA 1/9/22 dead body count is 1,477 v. 1,258 (per worldometers.com) and the C19 hospitalizations have increased from 68,000 to 134,000 (NYT 1/9/22 Julie Bosman.) Don’t forget that C19 deaths lag hospitalizations, which in turn lag cases.
So, @rick81721 , are we in a peak or a valley? I mean, your track record of forecasting is just so great that surely everyone is waiting for your insight.
12/21/21 Post #9276
“So you're asking me a question about "just like the flu" that someone else posted? And I see you spent a few days reading thru 2 year old posts for old predictions again. Drunk??
Finally re: worldometer - you still don't get the concept of peaks and valleys? And the biggest peak in deaths this year was pre-vaccine? Have another drink and review again tomorrow!”
I had only two glasses of Silver Oak Napa cab last week, cuz ur so interested in my drinking. Delicious.
rick81721
Lothar
So you are drunk again or not? Of course we are in a peak - this is the highest number of infections we (and every other country) have ever seen. The good news most are protected via vaccines plus omicron is less virulent. So your ridiculous hand-wringing prediction of another 400K deaths is beyond ludicrous. Wrong again my friend!
"Worldometers now has the US C19 daily death rate slightly higher at 1,258/7DMA for 12/19, consistent with >440k/year. "
I'm firmly in the camp that vaccinated leads to a better outcome than Covid for older groups. But I have to imagine that that may not paint the whole picture. Older people not vaccinated at this point are probably also making other poor health decisions leading to those poor outcomes.
I wonder about that as well, although I doubt that those kinds of factors would account for anything like a 40x or 30x difference in outcomes.
Yeah, even if it was incredibly drastic and was 5x more deadly non-vaccine, it hardly matters. Dead is dead.
Kaleidopete
Well-Known Member
This should help with getting more people tested so long as they can find the tests.
US health insurers must cover over-the-counter home Covid-19 tests starting Saturday, the US Department of Health and Human Services announced Monday.
US health insurers must cover over-the-counter home Covid-19 tests starting Saturday, the US Department of Health and Human Services announced Monday.
No doctor’s order, prescription or office visit will be required, and the tests won’t be subject to copays or deductibles. Insurers will be required to pay for eight tests per covered person per month, either by covering the cost up-front or by reimbursing the insured person through a claim. There’s no limit on the number of tests that will be covered if a doctor or other medical professional orders or gives them after an office visit.
At this point, put @rick81721 and @thegock in a room with 10 covid positive people, all variants. Rick doesn’t wear a mask, the gock does. Let the cards fall where they may.
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JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
That experiment was run in the early days when a cruise ship was not allowed in port and the people had to stay on.
rick81721
Lothar
Are there any available? That's the problem
thegock
Well-Known Member
But, I thought you said the death rate was a peak at 1,258/7DMA above? Worldometers has the 7DMA at 1,599 on Monday. I can't follow your logic.
As I indicated twice above, or you might be able to figure out by reading my sentence you quoted^^^^^, it's not a prediction, just an annualization of the current death rate. A prediction would be like this:
"Are you trying to claim that Florida is getting worse when every metric shows improvement?" And then when 60,000 more people die, you're dead wrong.
I kind of wonder if @SLIK RICK and I were in a room with 10 C19 positive patients like in Kevvo's hypothetical above, whether the board consensus would be that both of us survive, neither of us survive or which one. 😅😁😂😆🤣🤣
rick81721
Lothar
You apparently can't follow any of this. The daily new cases are heading for a peak - probably another week or two. Deaths will peak about 2 weeks later.
rick81721
Lothar
And as I said, your "annualization" is nonsensical. Again, the peaks and valleys that you keep missing.
You are calling a correct snapshot in time observation a "prediction"? Last time I checked (just now), Florida is 17th in the US for most deaths/population. NJ, NY and MA are up there with Mississippi and Alabama. Great job!
Don't know about you but with 3 doses, I have zero concerns about getting omicron. Since almost everyone will get it - might as well do so when we have max protection.
iLuveketchup
Well-Known Member
I'll preface this by saying I'm not the brightest crayon in the tool shed.
Just an observation, but it seems like ticker tape has moved from the infected fatality rate or total deaths to the average positive cases.
Curious... would the increased number of cases be in line with the increased number of testing? Was there a cause of panic that lead to an explosion in testing?
Just an observation, but it seems like ticker tape has moved from the infected fatality rate or total deaths to the average positive cases.
Curious... would the increased number of cases be in line with the increased number of testing? Was there a cause of panic that lead to an explosion in testing?
I'm pretty sure we just had a few things hit at once. New variant + holidays. And then once people started freaking out, more people freaked out. "If everyone is on line in the cold to get a test, I should too!"
So many people at work have been sick with Covid in the last 2-3 weeks that when I run into someone who DIDN'T get Covid it's actually an anomaly.
iLuveketchup
Well-Known Member
Believe it or not, I've never had it.
Just thinking out loud... with the low(er) death rate (insert reason here), are we using the number of infections as a reason to keep this as an emergency? And hypothetically, are there any groups that would like to keep this as an emergency?