Biggest crash in stock market history?

JerseyPete

Well-Known Member
Not oil. Oil is way up, and is mostly excluded from the S&P 500 index.
A friend of mine asked me what I think heating oil will be up to this winter? I told him if he is going with a pellet stove to make sure he gets plenty of pellets now.
Go long on pellet supply companies or will they not have enough to meet demand?
 

Fire Lord Jim

Well-Known Member
I closed most of my oil long positions two weeks ago. I'm holding OXY and OXY+ as I expect Berkshire Hathaway to acquire more.
Now I am planning my 2022 Roth conversion.
 

Fire Lord Jim

Well-Known Member
An excellent way to lose more than what was started with, is to play the commodities/futures markets.
I merely held stocks:. XOM, BP, SHEL, OXY, CVX. Oil used to make up a significant part of the S&P 500, but has been squeezed out to make room for FAANGs. So most index investors are getting hit harder for owning too much tech and not enough oil.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
in the long run tech is going to beat oil.
Energy, in general is interesting.
Until they figure out controllable fusion. once energy is free(ish) things get really messed up.
like maybe there is no need for money.

Utopian view vs dystopian.

assuming we don't blow everything up first.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Going to see the floodgates open today into Monday? It is kind of scary when you have the biggest down day in two years but the real thing that matters is that less than 1% of stocks were green. I am pretty sure that this has never happened in history..
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
LIT - Lithium ETF a money maker?
Personally I would steer clear. Chart looks horrible. 200 dma is starting to rollover while declining 50dma looks like it will pass through the 200 soon(bearish. Also, it broke down below it’s 6 month rising trendline and the treendline is now acting as resistance.9179808B-0BAF-4384-93AA-B22BEA9C135C.jpeg
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
Chicken little strikes again.
The problem with the current system is that most people add money to a system and let idiot financial planners aimlessly dump their money into funds. Look at the dutch pension fund that is down 35% this year. That’s the genius, college educated financial planner’s work. No one looks out for your money like YOU. My annuity is breakeven on the year. No gain no loss. A simple switch to guaranteed income when I though things were generally overbought. Now, when I feel things are generally oversold I will reenter. Maybe the beginnjng of the year or maybe in ten years. I personally don’t see us making all time highs anywhere in the near future. The real problem lies with the current generation that dumped their life savings into SPACS and crappy cryptos and will have no savings to invest when we really hit a bottom. The government is pulling liquidity out of the markets bot adding it.. STFR.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
The sad part is that most people are ok with their savings(pension, annuity or whatever) being drawn down 20-30-50% in a correction because of crappy financial advisors that don’t know anything besides add money on pullbacks. Imagine if they actually pulled the money(maybe 30-100%) when they felt the market was overbought and then a simple look at RSI and divergence would say hey, it’s a good time to put some money back in. People should get rich relatively quickly if they have a decent financial person managj g their money. Unfortunately that’s not generally what you get here. That’s why a 1999 happens, a 2008 etc. Was someone who started putting into their retirement in 2005 really ok with it being cut in half in 4 years?
 
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Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
I'm not looking at value-off-peak to judge how it is going.
my 10 year numbers look good.
no way to call a peak and get out, or call a bottom and get in.
Perhaps can be close, but how much time is on the sidelines?

Let me know when the bottom is, i'll remortgage the house.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
I'm not looking at value-off-peak to judge how it is going.
my 10 year numbers look good.
no way to call a peak and get out, or call a bottom and get in.
Perhaps can be close, but how much time is on the sidelines?

Let me know when the bottom is, i'll remortgage the house.
Well, should a financial advisor not be required to do a little technical analysis?
 
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Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Well, should a financial advisor not be required to do a little technical analysis?

My "team" of financial advisors is under-performing the S&P500 which is funny, cause that is where they put a good percentage of the money.
If it were that easy to move in/out on a large scale to beat the street, everyone would do it.

as a second point - if a financial advisor was really good, why would they be advising? Wouldn't that mess up their plan?

My gut feeling is that an analysis on a single stock/sector could be right (ie that lithium eft) but how to win across the market?

Financial advisor job is to tell client not to panic, and stay away from the latest fad.
Wonder how much of the bitcoin run-up was covid-stay-at-home-day-drinking-FOMO?
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
My "team" of financial advisors is under-performing the S&P500 which is funny, cause that is where they put a good percentage of the money.
If it were that easy to move in/out on a large scale to beat the street, everyone would do it.

as a second point - if a financial advisor was really good, why would they be advising? Wouldn't that mess up their plan?

My gut feeling is that an analysis on a single stock/sector could be right (ie that lithium eft) but how to win across the market?

Financial advisor job is to tell client not to panic, and stay away from the latest fad.
Wonder how much of the bitcoin run-up was covid-stay-at-home-day-drinking-FOMO?
With that description, anyone can be a financial analyst, lol. What's the point in hiring one if that's the case?
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
With that description, anyone can be a financial analyst, lol. What's the point in hiring one if that's the case?

yes - anyone can be a financial analyst.

and the reason we have him is the ability to establish an equities backed line of credit.
They have to manage the equities - because they can call the loan.
As soon as I get the HELOC, they are done. Assuming i can convince the boss.
Probably put my IRA against their managed one. Fairly sure i'm winning.
 
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