Biggest crash in stock market history?

Patrick said:
Best part of stats. I'll find one that works.
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I’m all for stats and permabulls. The problem with most retail investors is they invest in individual shit sticks. If they did what u do fine. But when you spend your life savings on TSLA and DKNG well…I know several boomers that boughts $100kish bitcoin…guess what….shitcoin. My best friend is averaging down on TSLA…guess what…Elon is still selling.
 
Why would investors have ever had any faith in Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation? Because we want to (but can't really) outsource give a shit. Two books: A Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Fooled by Randomness would bear this out. Add your own experience.

If someone knew which stocks would go up or down, do you think they would be wasting their time informing us? Would they manage our money, or instead borrow as much as they could and quietly buy the stocks. Buffet quietly buys his stocks.

Let's say you are considering two investment advisors. The first has never won any awards. The second has beaten the market every year for five years straight. There are about 15,000 Registered Investment Advisors in America. Each year, half will have beaten the market, the other half not. It's a coin toss. So after year one, 7,500 beat the market. After year two, 3,750 are still beating the market. Year three 1,875 are on a streak. Year four winnows that down to 980 something. After five years, with a population of 15,000 there will be nearly 500 advisors who have beaten the market five years straight and yet those are the odds from a random coin toss.

If I had to choose an advisor who knows he can't predict the future, and one who through randomness thinks he is a god, I would pick the rationally informed one.
 
Fire Lord Jim said:
Why would investors have ever had any faith in Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation? Because we want to (but can't really) outsource give a shit. Two books: A Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Fooled by Randomness would bear this out. Add your own experience.

If someone knew which stocks would go up or down, do you think they would be wasting their time informing us? Would they manage our money, or instead borrow as much as they could and quietly buy the stocks. Buffet quietly buys his stocks.

Let's say you are considering two investment advisors. The first has never won any awards. The second has beaten the market every year for five years straight. There are about 15,000 Registered Investment Advisors in America. Each year, half will have beaten the market, the other half not. It's a coin toss. So after year one, 7,500 beat the market. After year two, 3,750 are still beating the market. Year three 1,875 are on a streak. Year four winnows that down to 980 something. After five years, with a population of 15,000 there will be nearly 500 advisors who have beaten the market five years straight and yet those are the odds from a random coin toss.

If I had to choose an advisor who knows he can't predict the future, and one who through randomness thinks he is a god, I would pick the rationally informed one.
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The Burton Malkiel book is excellent and I have gifted it to many clients. I was going to give it to one of my favorite clients in 2014, but he told me that Malkiel was his professor at Princeton, so that didn't work out for me.

I would add that all of these "investment advisers" are charging the customers some version of "2 and 20." Where are the customers yachts?
 
Fire Lord Jim said:
If I had to choose an advisor who knows he can't predict the future, and one who through randomness thinks he is a god, I would pick the rationally informed one.
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yes - they should be more of a cheerleader, and encouraging investment in the future.
you know, you hire someone to make sure you do what you are supposed to do, even tho you know you should do it.
somehow feel accountable to this person that is taking a draw on your earnings in an up or down market.

yes, we do better when you do better, but we do just fine when you are sucking wind........
 
Patrick said:
yes - they should be more of a cheerleader, and encouraging investment in the future.
you know, you hire someone to make sure you do what you are supposed to do, even tho you know you should do it.
somehow feel accountable to this person that is taking a draw on your earnings in an up or down market.

yes, we do better when you do better, but we do just fine when you are sucking wind........
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No one looks out for your money better than you.
 
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Cassinonorth said:
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BTW, what’s happening now is just a continuation of what started I believe the end of 2018…then they use covid as an excuse to print trillions to boost the stock market. The markets weren’t exactly healthy before covid but rich white man can’t lose value so gotta prop em up. If you look at an actual chart of the s&p500 minus m2(money supply) it’s been in a bear market since the tech bubble.
 
So, when is it safe to invest in a $1T dollar company? After it loses $200B, $400B, $700B? Is TSLA still a good company? Are any growth stocks good to own when the fed is dead set on deflating the economy? If yes, when? What PE are we looking for? Personally my next long term stock investment will be BRK.B. I down some in my rollover IRA. I will buy some TSLA and AAPL at some point but with monthly breakdowns in almost all growth stocks it won't be any time soon. What are your plans?
 
So far this year, I've made the most $ in TSLA. But I'm day trading so there's only so much I can lose (or gain) in a given day.
 
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In the grand scheme of things, covid didn't even exist. We are due for new highs in the very short term and a 50% haircut in the coming years. Picture says it all, unsustainable.
 
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