This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[Dave Taylor]

Legit question, why can't they transport some of these patients to places that are not as badly hit? It seems like some areas of NJ and PA are close enough to be viable, no?

Assuming it will just spread like wild fire?

 

[ryderX]

Legit question, why can't they transport some of these patients to places that are not as badly hit? It seems like some areas of NJ and PA are close enough to be viable, no?

You do realize there are nearly 10,000 virus patients hospitalized in NYC as of 7 PM tonight ? The sheer logistics of moving critically ill patients with the required attending medical professionals is beyond belief.

 

[iman29]

Can’t say it enough times here when I read some of the recaps in the ERs.

if you or anyone in your family/friends are a healthcare worker dealing with this...THANK YOU!!

While Morristown isn’t that far away from where I live we have 24+ cases here in my town and it’s certainly a reality more people will get it.

Stay safe !!

 

[A Potted Plant]

I got bored this evening waiting to put in my shoprite order so I made a quick chart so i made a quick chart by county. If people want I can keep this going, just wanted to add more depth. I only did nj but every state is in the data set and holy shit there are a lot of unknowns!

Atlantic

Bergen

Burlington

Camden

Cape May

Cumberland

Essex

Gloucester

Hudson

Hunterdon

Mercer

Middlesex

Monmouth

Morris

Ocean

Passaic

Salem

Somerset

Sussex

Union

Unknown

Warren

Grand Total

4-Mar

1​

1​

5-Mar

2​

2​

6-Mar

3​

1​

4​

7-Mar

3​

1​

4​

8-Mar

4​

1​

1​

6​

9-Mar

5​

1​

1​

2​

1​

1​

11​

10-Mar

7​

2​

1​

1​

2​

1​

1​

15​

11-Mar

11​

2​

1​

1​

2​

4​

1​

1​

23​

12-Mar

13​

2​

1​

1​

1​

2​

5​

1​

1​

1​

1​

29​

13-Mar

17​

3​

2​

6​

3​

4​

7​

3​

1​

2​

1​

1​

50​

14-Mar

31​

3​

2​

7​

5​

1​

8​

8​

5​

1​

2​

1​

1​

75​

15-Mar

32​

4​

2​

11​

10​

1​

9​

11​

6​

2​

5​

4​

1​

98​

16-Mar

61​

5​

3​

20​

19​

1​

6​

15​

14​

8​

3​

8​

4​

8​

1​

176​

17-Mar

84​

5​

3​

32​

2​

24​

4​

9​

20​

22​

19​

4​

10​

6​

22​

1​

1​

268​

18-Mar

3​

133​

10​

10​

45​

2​

34​

6​

15​

40​

32​

19​

16​

18​

15​

26​

1​

2​

427​

19-Mar

3​

297​

14​

11​

1​

63​

3​

55​

8​

20​

64​

43​

26​

33​

38​

20​

2​

29​

1​

4​

735​

20-Mar

3​

342​

17​

15​

1​

1​

73​

3​

66​

11​

22​

76​

53​

35​

49​

49​

27​

3​

43​

3​

4​

896​

21-Mar

4​

362​

20​

15​

2​

1​

107​

6​

97​

14​

30​

116​

92​

64​

62​

67​

34​

6​

81​

151​

5​

1336​

22-Mar

5​

457​

26​

22​

2​

1​

172​

8​

126​

16​

40​

147​

158​

119​

102​

95​

1​

51​

12​

124​

221​

9​

1914​

23-Mar

6​

609​

36​

33​

2​

1​

273​

13​

190​

18​

50​

210​

238​

177​

144​

141​

1​

67​

15​

189​

416​

15​

2844​

24-Mar

6​

701​

42​

51​

3​

2​

342​

19​

234​

25​

58​

277​

288​

204​

180​

216​

1​

102​

18​

246​

645​

15​

3675​

25-Mar

9​

819​

48​

61​

4​

3​

381​

23​

260​

25​

82​

316​

313​

223​

222​

255​

1​

117​

27​

262​

933​

18​

4402​

26-Mar

10​

1206​

64​

73​

6​

4​

609​

33​

441​

39​

111​

505​

501​

315​

389​

399​

2​

179​

49​

432​

1478​

31​

6876​

27-Mar

14​

1505​

88​

95​

7​

9​

826​

40​

594​

52​

131​

640​

634​

391​

484​

484​

3​

222​

65​

519​

1984​

38​

8825​

28-Mar

17​

1838​

115​

123​

7​

11​

1086​

51​

771​

61​

168​

808​

781​

442​

624​

608​

3​

258​

81​

742​

2478​

51​

11124​

29-Mar

24​

2169​

142​

163​

9​

11​

1227​

72​

974​

66​

202​

938​

870​

566​

759​

831​

3​

295​

93​

896​

3020​

56​

13386​

Grand Total

104​

10712​

648​

691​

44​

44​

5281​

275​

3907​

346​

946​

4197​

4078​

2623​

3075​

3233​

15​

1397​

371​

3629​

11337​

249​

57202​

 

[Patrick]

friend of mine is in the ER at morristown now - generally healthy, athletic, around 60, non-smoker, very light drinker.
Sucks - he stayed overnight, will find out where they will move him today. He did a telemed meeting, and they recommended
he go in. Hard time breathing. His wife is in the f'ed category if she gets it.

trying to slow down the growth in the US -


Spreadsheet is updated. Feel free to play with this data.

 

[Santapez]

I'm bad at probabilities. I think I slept through that class

Let's say the death rate is 1% across the board. If you're a couple (Husband/wife etc) , what's the chances that one of you dies if both of you catch this?

Is it a 2% chance?

@Pat

 

[Santapez]

And my thought on the panic at hospitals:

If you work in the ER, you're always in the middle of craziness and you do your job, you keep your cool. You do your job the best you can. When the line is out the door at starbucks, the barista just keeps going along making stupid drinks, same as if there were two people on line.

It's gotta be much harder for those who are dealing with this on a macro level. Doctors/Administrators on a higher level that are watching this unfold, trying to manage different parts of the hospital realizing there's going to be absolute failure in the near future. These are the people frantically calling looking for masks, ventilators, etc.

Seems those on the front lines are more of "Oh, we're out of PPE and now I need to wash it. OK, now I can go back to doing the best I can."

 

[Patrick]

I'm bad at probabilities. I think I slept through that class

Let's say the death rate is 1% across the board. If you're a couple (Husband/wife etc) , what's the chances that one of you dies if both of you catch this?

Is it a 2% chance?

@Pat

it is 2 picks with replacement - independent events.
only one? or one or more?

@jmanic

 

[Norm]

That would be additive, 2% chance that at least 1 of you dies. 1/100 + 1/100.

1% of 1% chance that both of you die - so .01%. For both you multiply probabilities.

Alternately 99% x 99% chance you both live, or 98.01%.

Chance that only 1 of you dies is 2% minus the chance you both die. So 1.99%.

I don't know I give up. It doesn't add up to 100 so fuck math. @jmanic where did I go wrong?

 

[Patrick]

That would be additive, 2% chance that at least 1 of you dies. 1/100 + 1/100.

1% of 1% chance that both of you die - so .01%. For both you multiply probabilities.

Alternately 99% x 99% chance you both live, or 98.01%.

Chance that only 1 of you dies is 2% minus the chance you both die. So 1.99%.

I don't know I give up. It doesn't add up to 100 so fuck math. @jmanic where did I go wrong?

they are independent - think of it as a density -
1 in 10,000 they both go, 198/10,000 1 goes, 9801/10,000 they both survive.

 

[clarkenstein]

Not serious but serious question. To put the chances of CV death in perspective, what’s it compared to getting struck by lightning, winning the lottery, or dying in a car accident? Can anyone run those numbers? I’d be curious. I know all completely independent and in no way are they similar, but stats are interesting.

For example, motorcycling is absurdly dangerous.The generally accepted stat is that you have a 35x more likely chance of dying for every mile ridden on a motorcycle than dying while driving a car. Take drunk motorcyclists out, take helmetless motorcyclists out, take non-licensed motorcyclists out, as well as motorcyclists who haven’t take an official riders safety course, and the stat drops significantly to 5x (some argue lower).

what would the comparison be to driving in a car or any other standard US death event?

 

[Bike N Gear]

they are independent - think of it as a density -
1 in 10,000 they both go, 198/10,000 1 goes, 9801/10,000 they both survive.

View attachment 123715

I'd rather deal with drunks with broken bikes than this crap.

 

[Patrick]

that was a bit dark.

SantaJr may refer to my spreadsheet for safer places to live.

 

[UtahJoe]

And my thought on the panic at hospitals:

If you work in the ER, you're always in the middle of craziness and you do your job, you keep your cool. You do your job the best you can. When the line is out the door at starbucks, the barista just keeps going along making stupid drinks, same as if there were two people on line.

It's gotta be much harder for those who are dealing with this on a macro level. Doctors/Administrators on a higher level that are watching this unfold, trying to manage different parts of the hospital realizing there's going to be absolute failure in the near future. These are the people frantically calling looking for masks, ventilators, etc.

Seems those on the front lines are more of "Oh, we're out of PPE and now I need to wash it. OK, now I can go back to doing the best I can."

ya pretty much....one thing my wife sucks at...logistics. Example...ill ask her...so how are you guys doing on ventilators?...she will say. "We have them" One day im going to expect the answer will be "we dont have them" But your example about the coffee is partially true...the difference being that while there is a line out the door...its not first come first serve. Last night she worked in triage...Right now there is no waiting room for the ER, you come in, tell her your problem...they decide what they are going to do with you and have you wait outside in your car and they will call you when you are to be seen. Well those people who need treatment more than others come back in and get to jump the line....this is standard procedure at the ER. So the barista also has to figure out who gets coffee first.

 

[68nova200]

Not serious but serious question. To put the chances of CV death in perspective, what’s it compared to getting struck by lightning, winning the lottery, or dying in a car accident? Can anyone run those numbers? I’d be curious. I know all completely independent and in no way are they similar, but stats are interesting.

For example, motorcycling is absurdly dangerous.The generally accepted stat is that you have a 35x more likely chance of dying for every mile ridden on a motorcycle than dying while driving a car. Take drunk motorcyclists out, take helmetless motorcyclists out, take non-licensed motorcyclists out, as well as motorcyclists who haven’t take an official riders safety course, and the stat drops significantly to 5x (some argue lower).

what would the comparison be to driving in a car or any other standard US death event?

Most people don't want to hear those numbers... it makes everyday living look like chaos compared to the coronavirus.

 

[Patrick]

Not serious but serious question. To put the chances of CV death in perspective, what’s it compared to getting struck by lightning, winning the lottery, or dying in a car accident? Can anyone run those numbers? I’d be curious. I know all completely independent and in no way are they similar, but stats are interesting.

For example, motorcycling is absurdly dangerous.The generally accepted stat is that you have a 35x more likely chance of dying for every mile ridden on a motorcycle than dying while driving a car. Take drunk motorcyclists out, take helmetless motorcyclists out, take non-licensed motorcyclists out, as well as motorcyclists who haven’t take an official riders safety course, and the stat drops significantly to 5x (some argue lower).

what would the comparison be to driving in a car or any other standard US death event?

there is a deaths/million population column. that is a starting point.
but i don't drive a motorcycle anymore, so i've reduced my chances of dying that way significantly.....i think we can apply that here.
also, the mortality is not broken into cohorts (age+co-morbitity) - so a general number wouldn't really apply to 1 person.
which is why SantaJr should be good to go.

 

[Norm]

@Patrick - the additive must just be an approximation.

@clarkenstein - "Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day."

In 2017
Roughly 650,000 people died of heart disease in the US
Cancer ~600k
Unintended injuries (accidents) ~170k and the leading cause of death in people aged 1-44 in the US
Respiratory diseases ~160k
Stroke ~145k
Alzheimer's ~121k
Diabetes ~84k
Flu ~55k
Kidney disease ~50k
Suicide ~47k

Current count in the US in 2020 is just over 3000. But it's safe to say we have not hit a steady-state yet.

 

[Mitch]

Two trains are driving toward one another. The first train leaves Town A at 5am traveling at 60 miles per hour 5 Positive CV cases, 3 men and 2 woman and 10 non CV people 5 men and 5 women. The second train leaves Town B at 7am traveling at 70 miles per hour with 5 Positive CV cases and 2 non CV cases both children under 14, the distance between Town A and Town B is 455 miles. What is the EXACT time that the collision will occur and how many survivors will there be if everyone survived the crash?

 

[68nova200]

Found this article. its old and doesn't mention coronavirus... and really we wont know the real death rate until its declared over (its going to be extremely low).

The Odds of Dying

There are many ways to go, but what are the odds, really?

www.livescience.com

 

[Patrick]

Two trains are driving toward one another. The first train leaves Town A at 5am traveling at 60 miles per hour 5 Positive CV cases, 3 men and 2 woman and 10 non CV people 5 men and 5 women. The second train leaves Town B at 7am traveling at 70 miles per hour with 5 Positive CV cases and 2 non CV cases both children under 14, the distance between Town A and Town B is 455 miles. What is the EXACT time that the collision will occur and how many survivors will there be if everyone survived the crash?

0% you did not say they were on the same track. you been hanging with my stats T/A?