JerseyPete
Well-Known Member
Do you think keeping people on that ship (instead of relocate and isolate) was intentional? Getting real time reliable data on the virus in a controlled manner.
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
rick81721
Lothar
Where did you hear that? Testing is up to 70K now in the US and 90% test negative.
I've read countless first hand accounts of people exhibiting fever, cough, shortness of breath and being denied a test if they don't have known exposure to an infected person. There are countless such reports on reddit, facebook, etc. We may be starting to step up our testing a bit, but 70K tests isn't a big number considering South Korea was/is testing 10K per day, and is only 15% the population of the US.
The Kalmyk
Well-Known Member
Some recovery stories could could help lift some tender spirits but right now FEAR sells so we will continue to talk mortality rate.
"The great enemy of any attempt to change men's habits is inertia. Civilization is limited by inertia."
-EB
"The great enemy of any attempt to change men's habits is inertia. Civilization is limited by inertia."
-EB
rick81721
Lothar
Anecdotal evidence, not meaningful. We had 20K tests as of last Friday, now north of 10K per day - these are not just hospitalized by any stretch of the imagination.
ryderX
Well-Known Member
Show me the data
I don't. I generally think conspiracy theories never hold water because if more than 1 person is in on it, eventually they'll spill the beans. Occam's Razor points to a total lack of ability to handle the situation.
And to the @rick81721 and @xrjx discussion - my coworker has all the symptoms. Tested for everything other than the Coronavirus. A nurse called him up over the weekend and said that she thinks he has it. But he doesn't meet the guidelines for testing. So he cannot be tested.
That said, his symptoms are mild, he mostly just feels like shit, he's not going to die, and in the end would add to the number of people that recovered, basically lowering the mortality rate. By 1. My personal dataset is 1 person.
On that note, keep in mind that of the people who do not meet testing guidelines, only those that become seriously ill will be identified. That skews the statistics in the other direction.
Frustration and confusion mounts among some doctors and patients who can't get coronavirus tests
Doctors are frustrated by having their requests to test patients they say meet the criteria for COVID-19 rejected by hospitals and health departments.
abcnews.go.com
maybe this also qualifies as anecdotal, but here's an article from yesterday that gives some perspective on how difficult in can be to get a test
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
you can make that two, maybe. Thursday my daughter comes down with a fever (102) and a very nasty cough. We keep her home from school on Friday. Kept my son home too just in case. By Friday afternoon he comes down with the same symptoms.
By Friday night, I come down with the same stuff. It moved through the house fast. Felt like crap and the only way I can describe how I felt was that I just open my mouth as wide as I can while someone sandblasted my throat and lungs. Really didn’t appreciate this bug, it made me feel like shit. Carried into Monday with aches and a fever, but not too high. Today, I feel the best I have felt since the start.
I wasn’t tested, my throat and lungs felt like absolute shit, my kids are still coughing but we are all on the mend. Called the pulmonologist. No testing to be done. Poorly timed chest cold? Who knows. My wife so far has shown no symptoms. At all. Which worries me because she has autoimmune issues and asthma. And I guess this thing can simmer for a while.
I was up late one of the nights not being able to sleep and I read off the symptoms and I matched them pretty damn well. After a mild anxiety attack, as I’ve been handling the rest of this, I just went to radical acceptance. This sucks, it’s bizarre, but it is what it is.
I have self-quarantined (other than my family unfortunately) since Thursday. At work, when HR was telling us all to work from home, I came to find out one of our employees had traveled to Italy the prior week. Walked around the office for a bit. Southern Italy though. Then one of the kids a town over tested positive, which shouldn’t be a big deal, except they were in a gymnastics class here in town. Around my daughter’s age. Again, nothing concrete, but alarming.
so take all that for what it’s worth. kids are mucho betterer. I’m fine. Let’s not get old folks sick.
thegock
Well-Known Member
While I agree that 50x is high (and I thought based on a somewhat dated article/#s), I spoke with my friend Joe (Ph.D in Microbiology, Umich) last night about this and he thought, given:
the lag of 5 days period before the C19 symptoms manifest,
4 days for the tests (availability is a political issue, so we will set aside) to be processed,
the doubling rate (3 days),
NO CHANGE IN SOCIAL DISTANCING BEHAVIOR (of course this recently had begun to change except for Mrs G, @Patrick , one of my best friends, and the toilet paper people, etc. etc. , but is very difficult to quantify)
and the nature of exponential math
an estimate of the number of existing cases might be roughly estimated at 8X those reported. I discussed the math with a senior STEM professional, who had a quant grad degree from Cal. He agreed, as well, and had circulated the "50X article" some days ago to me.
I haven't seen anything that says there are fewer unreported cases than reported (meaning that the C19 virus had peaked), but I will ask Joe tonight.
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A Potted Plant
Honorary Sod
Where is my Corona payment I want to borrow against my future!!!
rick81721
Lothar
No social distancing in NJ? Seriously?? When did schools close? Concerts, sporting events??
Isn’t this why NJ put in place mandatory sick days? There is talk of support like that from the feds (yes it will take forever to put in place).
that being said, 5 days isn’t enough.
Might. Funny word.
Might be 1x. Or 4x. Or 522x. Might is a vague word. The data we have is from yes, 4+X days ago, which I did mention last night. Is X=6 or 4 or 7? Who knows.
Like I said earlier, my thought is that the other side of this peak is April 6th. Are we going to see a peak of 8000-9000 new cases a day leading up to that? Seems high. But who knows.
But again, to the point about 50x or even 8x, if true, it lowers the mortality rate considerably. And we should be happy about that. Shit, the best thing that could happen is for us to find out that every single American has been exposed to it.
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
Glad you guys are on the mend.
Yes, this @clarkenstein - glad you are all rebounding.
Hoping you are one and done here, whether it was C19 or not.
A Potted Plant
Honorary Sod
Can we talk about mnuchin 20% unemployment