This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

w_b said:
here's another idea the Israelis are floating to help understand/contain the spread: from NYT

"The idea is to sift through geolocation data routinely collected from Israeli cellphone providers about millions of their customers in Israel and the West Bank, find people who came into close contact with known virus carriers, and send them text messages directing them to isolate themselves immediately."

leave your cell phones at home if you don't want big bro knockin' wit some low-cost test kits fo you arse.
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The location data accuracy just isn't there to make this work the way they describe
 
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jimvreeland said:
Some of us have no choice. I either come into work sick, or get fired. That's a reality for a lot of people out there.
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That doesn't sound like smart business practice to me. How many HB customer would bring their business somewhere else if Jim Vreeland wasn't working there anymore because he was fired for getting sick?
 
one piece crank said:
The unsettling point is the potential lack of understanding this virus, under-reporting, and those still hanging in public/groups. This article states actual cases in a given locale are reported x 50. That's huge.
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That would be huge and good. Think about that.

Reported cases in the US: 7636
Deaths: 117
Mortality rate: 1.5%

Now multiply by 50:

Reported cases in the US times 50: 381800
Deaths: 117 (this remains more or less the same because it's not like 50x the people are dying and we don't know about it).
Mortality rate: .03%

If we learned the mortality rate was .03% that would be fantastic. But this exercise really just highlights that the fear-mongering articles are really just that. Fear-mongering.

To date, it is my opinion that the Diamond Princess remains the best case study we have. No politics, missed tests, or bullshit:

Cases: 712
Deaths: 7
Mortality rate: 0.98%

Given that rate of ~1%, this means that 11901 people have the virus in the US as of EOD yesterday. Which means there are exactly 4265 unreported cases as of the end of yesterday.
 
qclabrat said:
IMG_20200316_191633.jpg
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Martha Stewart sells seeds?
 
Dee had clinicals at JFK last night and a patient on her floor popped positive.

New Orleans had a cluster of 176 cases 5 days after we were there.

I return to work tonight.

This should get more interesting on a personal level.
 
Norm said:
That would be huge and good. Think about that.

Reported cases in the US: 7636
Deaths: 117
Mortality rate: 1.5%

Now multiply by 50:

Reported cases in the US times 50: 381800
Deaths: 117 (this remains more or less the same because it's not like 50x the people are dying and we don't know about it).
Mortality rate: .03%

If we learned the mortality rate was .03% that would be fantastic. But this exercise really just highlights that the fear-mongering articles are really just that. Fear-mongering.

To date, it is my opinion that the Diamond Princess remains the best case study we have. No politics, missed tests, or bullshit:

Cases: 712
Deaths: 7
Mortality rate: 0.98%

Given that rate of ~1%, this means that 11901 people have the virus in the US as of EOD yesterday. Which means there are exactly 4265 unreported cases as of the end of yesterday.
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You math better than @Patrick.
 
Norm said:
That would be huge and good. Think about that.

Reported cases in the US: 7636
Deaths: 117
Mortality rate: 1.5%

Now multiply by 50:

Reported cases in the US times 50: 381800
Deaths: 117 (this remains more or less the same because it's not like 50x the people are dying and we don't know about it).
Mortality rate: .03%

If we learned the mortality rate was .03% that would be fantastic. But this exercise really just highlights that the fear-mongering articles are really just that. Fear-mongering.

To date, it is my opinion that the Diamond Princess remains the best case study we have. No politics, missed tests, or bullshit:

Cases: 712
Deaths: 7
Mortality rate: 0.98%

Given that rate of ~1%, this means that 11901 people have the virus in the US as of EOD yesterday. Which means there are exactly 4265 unreported cases as of the end of yesterday.
Click to expand...

I think that a flaw in this analysis is the assumption that all 7,636 of the current cases will resolve by becoming healed rather than dying. Shouldn't you be comparing only resolved cases (i.e. # deaths compared to # recovered)? We don't know what number of those will end up dying, but given that the US has been primarily only testing people as they become hospitalized, combined with the potential for hospitals becoming over capacity, i don't think its quite this rosy
 
xrjx said:
I think that a flaw in this analysis is the assumption that all 7,636 of the current cases will resolve by becoming healed rather than dying. Shouldn't you be comparing only resolved cases (i.e. # deaths compared to # recovered)? We don't know what number of those will end up dying, but given that the US has been primarily only testing people as they become hospitalized, combined with the potential for hospitals becoming over capacity, i don't think its quite this rosy
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Nor does any of this account for permanent lung damage that will likely become an issue as well.
 
Carson said:
Dee had clinicals at JFK last night and a patient on her floor popped positive.

New Orleans had a cluster of 176 cases 5 days after we were there.

I return to work tonight.

This should get more interesting on a personal level.
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Totally read that wrong due to all
The TP references in this thread. Glad no one pooped on her floor.
 
xrjx said:
I think that a flaw in this analysis is the assumption that all 7,636 of the current cases will resolve by becoming healed rather than dying. Shouldn't you be comparing only resolved cases (i.e. # deaths compared to # recovered)? We don't know what number of those will end up dying, but given that the US has been primarily only testing people as they become hospitalized, combined with the potential for hospitals becoming over capacity, i don't think its quite this rosy
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Given that requirement, I would base any analysis on the Diamond Princess again. Right now this is our best data set either way.

712 confirmed cases
456 recovered
7 dead

So we're then left with 463 resolved cases to base this on. That gives us a mortality rate of 1.5% again. I'm not going to speculate on the remaining 249 cases because frankly I don't know which way they will go. When all 249 have resolved, then we have a complete dataset.

If the mortality rate is actually 1.5% then we pretty much have no unreported cases, and my point that the article is based on fear-mongering actually has more credence.

The possible flaw in this analysis is that it is based on a sample size of 463. Is that large enough? I don't know.
 
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