This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

rick81721 said:
45 days? We shall see. I want to see 5 more days of data before making predictions, but if by sunday they are still in a place where their 10 day ave of new cases is around 500/day, I don't see it. Clearly Sweden's low population density is having an effect here, but I want to get more granular and see what's happening in Stockholm too.
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watch their death rate, not their confirmed rate.
 
JerseyPete said:
Do you think more people have been exposed and are asymptomatic than previously thought?
Sample size of about 200, but interesting.
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This is very interesting - very small study but that suggests a staggering 12% of the NYC population with asymptomatic covid. Florida did a similar study in the Villages a few weeks ago - testing 1400 people with no symptoms, only 2 tested positive, and then developed symptoms days later. So basically none (at that time). Good gauge on the prevalence in the epicenter vs elsewhere.

https://ufhealth.org/news/2020/earl...g-villages-encouraging-experts-urge-vigilance
 
Patrick said:
watch their death rate, not their confirmed rate.
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Well since the prediction is "health care system collapsing", hospitalizations would be most relevant. I wonder if they have such data? Their deaths are very strange (similar to cases) - they will have a few days of higher numbers, then several days of much lower.
 
Patrick said:
watch their death rate, not their confirmed rate.
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What are your thoughts on the reliability of "cause of death" during this? I tend to think that anything closely resembling Covid will be counted as a Covid death, boosting the numbers without verification. My point is that death rate is more solid than other data points, but would be even more so with verification it was the Covid 19.
 
rick81721 said:
This is very interesting - very small study but that suggests a staggering 12% of the NYC population with asymptomatic covid. Florida did a similar study in the Villages a few weeks ago - testing 1400 people with no symptoms, only 2 tested positive, and then developed symptoms days later. So basically none (at that time). Good gauge on the prevalence in the epicenter vs elsewhere.

https://ufhealth.org/news/2020/earl...g-villages-encouraging-experts-urge-vigilance
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I'm also in the group that leans towards heat, humidity and UV helping to disrupt the virus, but looking at NOLA proves that wrong to some extent.
 
JerseyPete said:
What are your thoughts on the reliability of "cause of death" during this? I tend to think that anything closely resembling Covid will be counted as a Covid death, boosting the numbers without verification. My point is that death rate is more solid than other data points, but would be even more so with verification it was the Covid 19.
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Right now the CDC is recommending that if there is a possibility that a person died from covid, it is to be listed as a a covid death. So in reality the current reported death rate is way overblown. Also the CDC has stopped tracking regular flu and regular pneumonia deaths and counting all of them to covid 19. In my opinion that is no different than china lying about their case numbers. In other words... DO NOT trust any death rate that is being reported in the USA right now. This is all openly written on the CDC website...
 
JerseyPete said:
I'm also in the group that leans towards heat, humidity and UV helping to disrupt the virus, but looking at NOLA proves that wrong to some extent.
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NOLA was unique in that they had mardi gras which brought huge numbers into a tiny area. But even there, the growth rate has slowed dramatically
 
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JerseyPete said:
What are your thoughts on the reliability of "cause of death" during this? I tend to think that anything closely resembling Covid will be counted as a Covid death, boosting the numbers without verification. My point is that death rate is more solid than other data points, but would be even more so with verification it was the Covid 19.
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I saw Fauci state that deaths here are not counted as Covid if they hadn't been tested first. Not enough tests available to test the dead. He did say those numbers aren't large enough to affect anything.
 
JerseyPete said:
What are your thoughts on the reliability of "cause of death" during this? I tend to think that anything closely resembling Covid will be counted as a Covid death, boosting the numbers without verification. My point is that death rate is more solid than other data points, but would be even more so with verification it was the Covid 19.
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i think sweden goes the other way - since they want to say their way is working.
only confirmed are counted???

Bed space/critical care may be more telling?
total deaths also?
 
Patrick said:
i think sweden goes the other way - since they want to say their way is working.
only confirmed are counted???

Bed space/critical care may be more telling?
total deaths also?
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Some good information on Sweden here. They count deaths similar to other countries, but different from Italy and Spain who seem to be undercounting. Sweden is ramping up testing for both symptomatic and general population. This also explains the spikey nature of their data

https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus
 
Patrick said:
I believe the CDC says that the Drs may assume Covid-19 w/o a positive test -
it does not encourage them to do so.
Which was an article from some dr in arizona the other day where he questioned the word 'assumed'

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Well we all know what assumptions usually lead to... i mean its right in the word ASSuME hahahaha
 
68nova200 said:
Well we all know what assumptions usually lead to... i mean its right in the word ASSuME hahahaha
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I think the attributed deaths are pretty accurate, at least here in the US. The big unknown is the real death rate - and we won't know until we get a good handle on asymptomatic cases. That NYC pregnant women study was eyebrow raising to say the least
 
68nova200 said:
Well we all know what assumptions usually lead to... i mean its right in the word ASSuME hahahaha
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If you're going to take the approach that the reported numbers do not support your personal belief, you should just ignore this thread and move on. It'll be better for all involved at the end of the day.

If you want to discuss conspiracy theories, we can compare the types of tinfoil we use to make our hats.
 
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