This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

mfennell said:
Two right now. 🙂 But regardless, the trend is good. I was told Riverview Medical Center in Red Bank peaked at 50 COVID patients and was at 20 a day or two ago. A lot of people in the area work for big Wall Street firms who were out ahead of it and had their people transitioning to WFH a week before Murphy told businesses to shut down. Obviously contributing, the surrounding community is filled with the kind of people who can work from their (large, comfortable) home.
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On Monday night it was reported that there were nine hospitals on divert.

www.nj.com

Coronavirus outbreak surge in N.J. spreading south as 9 hospitals went on divert status

There were 9 hospitals in the state that hit “divert” status Monday night with most of them in central New Jersey for the first time.
www.nj.com www.nj.com
 
Bike N Gear said:
On Monday night it was reported that there were nine hospitals on divert.

www.nj.com

Coronavirus outbreak surge in N.J. spreading south as 9 hospitals went on divert status

There were 9 hospitals in the state that hit “divert” status Monday night with most of them in central New Jersey for the first time.
www.nj.com www.nj.com
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That's interesting. I guess I've been looking at snapshots in time that look like a general reduction. I found the direct link to the data: https://hippocrates.nj.gov/hospdivert/viewCurrentHospitalStatusEMSDivert.action

Norm said:
We collectively need to stop using news headlines as our source of information.
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The headline summarized a briefing from the NJ State Health Commissioner. That seems legit.
 
Bike N Gear said:
On Monday night it was reported that there were nine hospitals on divert.

www.nj.com

Coronavirus outbreak surge in N.J. spreading south as 9 hospitals went on divert status

There were 9 hospitals in the state that hit “divert” status Monday night with most of them in central New Jersey for the first time.
www.nj.com www.nj.com
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from this article

There were nine New Jersey hospitals that hit “divert” status Monday night, Persichilli said — meaning they could temporarily no longer accept new patients in at least one part of the hospital.

That is some pretty useless information right there. A. what hospitals? Are they major hospitals? or are they small community hospitals (most likely) B. "Divert in one part of the hospital" What does that mean exactly? As the link @mfennell provided: No Psychiatric Services for St. peters university hospital....this is a reason a hospital would go to divert status....so just saying 9 hospitals went on divert status isnt telling you much of anything. Pretty useless article.
 
Jacked from my local PD's Facewall:

04/22/2020 - PSA

Effective today, until further notice, COVID-19 testing at Bergen and Monmouth sites will now conduct testing on any New Jersey resident, regardless of symptom status. There is no longer a requirement that persons must be symptomatic prior to testing.

Monday, Wednesday, Saturday: 8am to 4pm
PNC Bank Arts Center - 116 Garden State Pkwy, Holmdel, NJ 07733

Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday: 8am to 4pm
Bergen Community College - 400 Paramus Road, Paramus Campus – Lots B & C, Paramus, NJ 07652
When you arrive, you will need to provide and do the following:
Provide proof of residency in New Jersey (Picture ID)
Keep your window up. You will be directed when to lower the window just enough to slide paper though
Be prepared to hold you drivers license or ID up to the window
Do not exit your vehicle
Restrooms are not available
Should this schedule change, we will send another announcement out.
If you have any general questions or concerns, the NJ Poison Control Center and 211 have partnered with the State to provide information to the public on COVID-19:
Call (General COVID-19 Questions): 2-1-1 (24/7)
Call (Medical COVID-19 Questions): 1-800-962-1253 (24/7)
Text NJCOVID to 898-211 to receive alerts
 
68nova200 said:
I guess they are trying to boost the numbers to keep everything locked up?
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It depends on the spin. I could make an argument that if large numbers of asymptomatic or mild positive cases are revealed we should be opening back up. More positives will lower the severity and death rate.
 
Tim said:
It depends on the spin. I could make an argument that if large numbers of asymptomatic or mild positive cases are revealed we should be opening back up. More positives will lower the severity and death rate.
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Except that no media outlet is pushing the higher asymptomatic numbers means that its less deadly... They are only repeating the total case number. No one is talking about the studies that show the total number of cases is likely many times higher and all these shutdowns are for absolutely nothing. its getting more and more apparent that this is no more deadly than a common flu infection. And right now if those studies are accurate its tracking to be less deadly than commuting to work every day.
 
68nova200 said:
Except that no media outlet is pushing the higher asymptomatic numbers means that its less deadly... They are only repeating the total case number. No one is talking about the studies that show the total number of cases is likely many times higher and all these shutdowns are for absolutely nothing. its getting more and more apparent that this is no more deadly than a common flu infection. And right now if those studies are accurate its tracking to be less deadly than commuting to work every day.
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How do you figure the shutdowns are for nothing if they are actually working to limit the spread? If NYC has had almost 15k deaths in the past month could you imagine what would have happened in the tri-state area without the lockdowns?
 
jmanic said:
Jacked from my local PD's Facewall:

04/22/2020 - PSA

Effective today, until further notice, COVID-19 testing at Bergen and Monmouth sites will now conduct testing on any New Jersey resident, regardless of symptom status. There is no longer a requirement that persons must be symptomatic prior to testing.

Monday, Wednesday, Saturday: 8am to 4pm
PNC Bank Arts Center - 116 Garden State Pkwy, Holmdel, NJ 07733

Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday: 8am to 4pm
Bergen Community College - 400 Paramus Road, Paramus Campus – Lots B & C, Paramus, NJ 07652
When you arrive, you will need to provide and do the following:
Provide proof of residency in New Jersey (Picture ID)
Keep your window up. You will be directed when to lower the window just enough to slide paper though
Be prepared to hold you drivers license or ID up to the window
Do not exit your vehicle
Restrooms are not available
Should this schedule change, we will send another announcement out.
If you have any general questions or concerns, the NJ Poison Control Center and 211 have partnered with the State to provide information to the public on COVID-19:
Call (General COVID-19 Questions): 2-1-1 (24/7)
Call (Medical COVID-19 Questions): 1-800-962-1253 (24/7)
Text NJCOVID to 898-211 to receive alerts
Click to expand...

At this stage in the game, blood antibody tests would be more relevant. But it should give some insight
 
Bike N Gear said:
How do you figure the shutdowns are for nothing if they are actually working to limit the spread? If NYC has had almost 15k deaths in the past month could you imagine what would have happened in the tri-state area without the lockdowns?
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How well are the shut downs working tho??? Forcing more people into tiny spaces (food stores), cases didn't drop at all when restrictions started, if anything they increased significantly. So with absolutely zero restrictions it would have been a tough spot for sure. But only in localized areas with a high density of old people or population in general. The bottom line is that this thing does not have the chaotic results that have been peddled by the panic machines.
A 99.98% survival rate is nothing to worry about. The NYC death numbers are assuming ALL deaths at home are COVID related. They are considering basically all deaths besides a bullet in the head a covid death right now. NY admitted to this and they are the only state using this method of death count. In fact their numbers are so inflated that most sites reporting deaths are giving NY state an asterisk explaining how they report numbers.
 
Tim said:
The goal is to prevent unnecessary death because the hospitals are overrun and the health care system has collapsed. We won't know if Sweden made a good decision for weeks.
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I don't buy this. Disease progression has been the same everywhere - it starts out with exponential growth, then, either a certain significant percentage of the population gets infected/immune or mitigation takes place and the growth slows to linear, with a gradually flatter slope. Sweden started exponentially like everyone else, they have been basically in linear growth now for at least 3 weeks, with no signs of it getting steeper. Unless the Swedes suddenly start having huge indoor concerts or gatherings soon, it just won't start to get worse again.
 
68nova200 said:
Except that no media outlet is pushing the higher asymptomatic numbers means that its less deadly... They are only repeating the total case number. No one is talking about the studies that show the total number of cases is likely many times higher and all these shutdowns are for absolutely nothing. its getting more and more apparent that this is no more deadly than a common flu infection. And right now if those studies are accurate its tracking to be less deadly than commuting to work every day.
Click to expand...

I agree with almost everything you said. The media survives off of hype and they definitely have an agenda. I don't think all of the shutdowns are for nothing. I think at least some of the restrictions are logical and make sense. Things definitely got out of hand, though.

It looks as though the numbers are trending to show COVID-19 will be about twice as deadly as the flu. This is a far cry from 10x or whatever the initial models predicted the death rate to be compared to the flu.

Bike N Gear said:
How do you figure the shutdowns are for nothing if they are actually working to limit the spread? If NYC has had almost 15k deaths in the past month could you imagine what would have happened in the tri-state area without the lockdowns?
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The point of the shutdowns were to slow the spread. Again, the area under the curve is the same regardless of whether it is short and steep or long and flat. If 15k people were going to die then 15k people were going to die.

I have never met you and I don't know you, though I have been around the forums enough to be at least a little familiar with your background. That said I have a serious question for you. What will most likely have a more profound effect on your health and well-being? Potential exposure to COVID-19 or the loss of your business and ability to provide yourself (and family) with food, shelter and a healthy lifestyle?

The longer this drags on the more businesses will not survive it. It's not because they made poor business decisions. It's because Uncle Sam forced them to close the doors. Furthermore, what happens to the employees of these businesses? They aren't getting paid. We can't just keep printing money and handing it out or you'll need a wheel barrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread. This will have a real effect on people's lives and health and that absolutely should carry some weight in these decisions.

------

We pumped the brakes. We bought time. Our health care system was able to adapt and it's integrity was preserved. No one is advocating unnecessary death but I think it's time we start easing the restrictions. I think the real risk to our society, personal health, and well-being due to us crippling our economy is being ignored by many. This has always been a balancing act. The risk can't be eliminated 100%. We also can't live in a bubble forever. It's just not sustainable for very long.
 
rick81721 said:
I don't buy this. Disease progression has been the same everywhere - it starts out with exponential growth, then, either a certain significant percentage of the population gets infected/immune or mitigation takes place and the growth slows to linear, with a gradually flatter slope. Sweden started exponentially like everyone else, they have been basically in linear growth now for at least 3 weeks, with no signs of it getting steeper. Unless the Swedes suddenly start having huge indoor concerts or gatherings soon, it just won't start to get worse again.
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ABBA concert?!?!
abba.gif
 
rick81721 said:
I don't buy this. Disease progression has been the same everywhere - it starts out with exponential growth, then, either a certain significant percentage of the population gets infected/immune or mitigation takes place and the growth slows to linear, with a gradually flatter slope. Sweden started exponentially like everyone else, they have been basically in linear growth now for at least 3 weeks, with no signs of it getting steeper. Unless the Swedes suddenly start having huge indoor concerts or gatherings soon, it just won't start to get worse again.
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I was merely regurgitating what we have been fed from the government.

I tend to agree with your assessment.
 
looks like nj has been linear for 2-3 weeks.
happens to be correlated to quarantine - but no reason to think it is causal.
since none of the numbers can be trusted, i can only conclude this is a hoax.
Bring it on - and f-it, while i'm at it, i'm riding in a WMA, and i'm doing my earthday cleanup on closed DEP property.

1587578053076.png
 
68nova200 said:
How well are the shut downs working tho??? Forcing more people into tiny spaces (food stores), cases didn't drop at all when restrictions started, if anything they increased significantly. So with absolutely zero restrictions it would have been a tough spot for sure. But only in localized areas with a high density of old people or population in general. The bottom line is that this thing does not have the chaotic results that have been peddled by the panic machines.
A 99.98% survival rate is nothing to worry about. The NYC death numbers are assuming ALL deaths at home are COVID related. They are considering basically all deaths besides a bullet in the head a covid death right now. NY admitted to this and they are the only state using this method of death count. In fact their numbers are so inflated that most sites reporting deaths are giving NY state an asterisk explaining how they report numbers.
Click to expand...

I think it's pretty clear that these measures worked. This isn't a magical virus, it has to have a human host to survive. And then an infected person has to get really close to another who isn't infected or immune for an extended period for them to get it. Everyone starts spacing out and staying away from others, the infection has to slow down - and it has pretty much everywhere.

I think the death count is accurate for a new disease - basically, if you have it and die, for any reason, it is counted. One caveat tho is comparing this to influenza deaths - it is not apple to apples. People who get hospitalized for the flu, then die of heart failure, kidney failure, etc - pretty much anything other than pneumonia, the death will usually be attributed to the primary cause (heart or kidney) and not the flu. So by that metric, flu deaths are under-counted if you try to directly compare the two.
 
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