I asked Jeeves..
COVID-19 - Florida Department of Health
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that is caused by a coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2.
floridahealthcovid19.gov
This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond
- Thread starter Paul H
- Start date
floridahealthcovid19.gov
Tracking coronavirus: U.S. data
The table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV, officially known as SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) in the U.S. Scroll down for a graph and maps. ChartsD.C. | Florida | Texas | Northern Mariana Islands We need your help: Join us on Patreon or support us with a one-time donation on...
bnonews.com
Florida COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Florida COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
56 Florida hospitals hit 100% ICU capacity as DeSantis defends refusal to release coronavirus data
DeSantis broke his vow to release coronavirus hospitalization data as state numbers show hospitals at full capacity
www.salon.com
So, we probably need to be fair in the "kill Rick" posse here.
If we look at Florida numbers today:
8935 cases
119 deaths
This is still just 1.3%
Looking at New Jersey (from yesterday, today is still empty):
247 cases
64 deaths
This is 26%
Ok so I know what the objection is going to be. It will likely quote the words "lag" and "2 weeks". So let's say 2 weeks ago:
On June 25th:
Florida: 8942 cases - eerily similar to today. So still, the 2 weeks later number sits at something in the 1.5% ballpark
New Jersey: 360 cases - ok this helps the rate but it's still almost 18%
Alright, so here is my source:
www.worldometers.info
Is this source super accurate? I'm sure it's close enough to make the point.
The Question: Why is NJ so, so much higher than Florida? I honestly have no idea.
If we look at Florida numbers today:
8935 cases
119 deaths
This is still just 1.3%
Looking at New Jersey (from yesterday, today is still empty):
247 cases
64 deaths
This is 26%
Ok so I know what the objection is going to be. It will likely quote the words "lag" and "2 weeks". So let's say 2 weeks ago:
On June 25th:
Florida: 8942 cases - eerily similar to today. So still, the 2 weeks later number sits at something in the 1.5% ballpark
New Jersey: 360 cases - ok this helps the rate but it's still almost 18%
Alright, so here is my source:
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
Is this source super accurate? I'm sure it's close enough to make the point.
The Question: Why is NJ so, so much higher than Florida? I honestly have no idea.
rick81721
Lothar
Yes highest one day total, and per population, same daily total as the last few days in NJ. ICU's are not full, total daily cases appear to have peaked.
So looking at hospitalizations and deaths per new case from the beginning to May 15 (the first wave), to May 16 to now (second wave):
First wave: 180 hospitalizations per 1000 cases, 46 deaths per 1000 cases
Second wave: 50 hospitalizations per 1000 cases, 11 deaths per 1000 cases
rick81721
Lothar
So, we probably need to be fair in the "kill Rick" posse here.
If we look at Florida numbers today:
8935 cases
119 deaths
This is still just 1.3%
Looking at New Jersey (from yesterday, today is still empty):
247 cases
64 deaths
This is 26%
Ok so I know what the objection is going to be. It will likely quote the words "lag" and "2 weeks". So let's say 2 weeks ago:
On June 25th:
Florida: 8942 cases - eerily similar to today. So still, the 2 weeks later number sits at something in the 1.5% ballpark
New Jersey: 360 cases - ok this helps the rate but it's still almost 18%
Alright, so here is my source:
United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
Is this source super accurate? I'm sure it's close enough to make the point.
The Question: Why is NJ so, so much higher than Florida? I honestly have no idea.
Yep I've been asking the same question. I think one factor is age of those infected - it's 24% 65+ in NJ, 14% 65+ in FL. Maybe multigenerational families play a role as well? I"d imagine there are more families here in NJ with grandparents living with kids who have kids. More retirees in FL living alone.
They tested 24k less people than yesterday (75k). 18% positive rate. That's a pretty weak thing to point to.
rick81721
Lothar
News flash, test numbers change every day. That has been the trend for weeks, some days 30K tests come in, some days 50K.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical
thegock
Well-Known Member
See post 4,723 above for the link. The lag from cases to deaths probably is 3-4 weeks per the linked National Geographic 7/2/20 article and discussion with Dr. Joe.
Is this posse still accepting resumes?
...what?
You just totally changed the argument based on incorrect numbers. You're talking out both sides of your mouth claiming the number of new cases has stalled while also reporting in a record high positive rate. The numbers only matter to you when they agree with your argument.
rick81721
Lothar
Nonsense, look at the data. Test numbers change daily, the 7 day average appears to flattening around 10K per day.
And since you seem so interested in this suddenly, address the death rate differences between FL and NJ.
Including a holiday weekend is definitely a great way to get a totally accurate picture of cases. Again, if you test less people = less new cases. Their 18% positive test rate is not good any way you spin yesterday.
lol I've been avidly watching coronavirus in the US since February, just never felt like engaging you on here. To answer that question, I don't know....I never claimed to. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.
rick81721
Lothar
I just look at the daily cases found, not the testing or percent positive. Another week of data will confirm whether the second wave has peaked or not. And my "argument" has been that yes cases are increasing, but deaths are in no way proportional and instead the death rate has dropped by nearly a factor of 4 since the first two months of this pandemic.
PS I've seen maybe a handful of your posts so just figured you are a @thegocksick puppet!
different take.
more testing yields more negative results - the number of sick people doesn't change. (confirmed sick being a proxy for sick)
remember - holy crap, 50% of the tests are positive (this seems bad?)
whew, numbers are better, only 5% of the people are testing positive now. (this seems good?)
same number of people sick.
this is because of self selection into the test process, and changes in vetting.
if it was a randomized test to determine the percentage sick choosing not to be tested, that would be a different animal.
and when the saliva test pans out, we'll probably get more random testing - cause who wants a brain swab?
There is also bias in the testing cycle (easy to see pattern) - since they are confirmed sick when reported, not when tested. So weekends and holidays,
at the test sites and labs. Also, when people are choosing to get tested (if i don't feel better by monday, i'll go) - perhaps this was more of your point?
mfennell
Well-Known Member
We've been saying 2 weeks but it looks like it's more like 18 days median for symptom onset to death. Does 'symptom onset' track with cases? Or is there a lag? Dunno.
Edit: I just learned what IQR means... So there are very wide ranges of durational (is that a word?) outcomes. NJ is seeing the far end of the bell curve. I hope.
Exposure to symptom onset averages 5-6 days. Source.
Edit: I just learned what IQR means... So there are very wide ranges of durational (is that a word?) outcomes. NJ is seeing the far end of the bell curve. I hope.
. Source
Exposure to symptom onset averages 5-6 days. Source.
If everyone who wants to get tested, can get tested (basically where we're at in NJ) then yes I agree. That's true. From what I hear, Florida is running out of tests though.
Florida testing sites could run out of supplies soon as COVID-19 case numbers rise
USF doctors say ideally hundreds of thousands more people should be tested per day to get an accurate picture of where the virus is in Florida.
www.wtsp.com
If there were unlimited tests, then that'd be great. If daily cases are hamstrung by testing centers closing early (see above article) it kinda defeats you looking at solely cases found.
Better treatment options, more testing, younger initial case age (which is rising) and yes...deaths lagging behind.
We'll see where we are in 2-3 weeks from now in Florida for a real accurate picture since they aren't shutting down anything it seems. Maybe the death rate will stay at a very manageable .2-.5%...maybe they'll be the new Bergamo. We're just guessing after all.
Would be pretty weird to post a random person's Strava for a week straight on this account if that were the case lol
Paul H
Fearless OOS Poser
https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/nj-info...een-exposed-to-the-virus-that-causes-covid-19
A positive result on a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test should not be viewed as evidence of immunity to or past infection with COVID-19.
The CDC has developed a laboratory blood test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, but that test is designed as a research tool that will give public health officials more information needed to guide the response to the pandemic. The test is not currently designed to test individuals who want to know if they have been previously infected with COVID-19.
A positive result on a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test should not be viewed as evidence of immunity to or past infection with COVID-19.
The CDC has developed a laboratory blood test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, but that test is designed as a research tool that will give public health officials more information needed to guide the response to the pandemic. The test is not currently designed to test individuals who want to know if they have been previously infected with COVID-19.
sounds like legalese to me.
it is for research cause they didn’t go through all the expensive protocols to validate it as an official test
Paul H
Fearless OOS Poser
Well... it seems consistent with what they were saying b4 that this test is not accurate.
Ok then...
18 days ago
Florida: 3494 - mortality rate of 3.4%
NJ: 289 - mortality rate of 22%
3 weeks ago
Florida: 3207 - 3.7%
NJ: 429 - 15%
Ok I did look at the NJ graph again and yesterday is the highest total deaths since June 13th. So it's not entirely fair.
Also, look at California. Their graphs make no sense at all.
18 days ago
Florida: 3494 - mortality rate of 3.4%
NJ: 289 - mortality rate of 22%
3 weeks ago
Florida: 3207 - 3.7%
NJ: 429 - 15%
Ok I did look at the NJ graph again and yesterday is the highest total deaths since June 13th. So it's not entirely fair.
Also, look at California. Their graphs make no sense at all.
I will also look at the 7 day rolling average from "wave 1":
Peak date for cases: April 10
Peak date for deaths: April 21
The actual data from wave 1 says the lag is 11 days. This is the largest dataset we have to look at right now.
Wave 2 started on June 9th. The death wave bottomed out on July 5th. July 6th it started going up again.
I would say the only thing that makes sense right now is the idea that the Florida strain has mutated into a less deadly version. I don't see what other conclusion the facts support at this time.
Peak date for cases: April 10
Peak date for deaths: April 21
The actual data from wave 1 says the lag is 11 days. This is the largest dataset we have to look at right now.
Wave 2 started on June 9th. The death wave bottomed out on July 5th. July 6th it started going up again.
I would say the only thing that makes sense right now is the idea that the Florida strain has mutated into a less deadly version. I don't see what other conclusion the facts support at this time.