This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

You're all overthinking this. The people who don't get vaccinated are the same people who don't get the flu vaccine. The "I never get the flu shot and I never get the flu" or "I got the shot and still got sick so don't get it anymore" people. We all know these people, and you're not going to change their minds no matter how much you try to scare them with the Delta variant. All you're going to do is make them dig their heels in even deeper. And politicizing it doesn't help.
 
Monkey Soup said:
You're all overthinking this. The people who don't get vaccinated are the same people who don't get the flu vaccine. The "I never get the flu shot and I never get the flu" or "I got the shot and still got sick so don't get it anymore" people. We all know these people, and you're not going to change their minds no matter how much you try to scare them with the Delta variant. All you're going to do is make them dig their heels in even deeper. And politicizing it doesn't help.
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This is sort of what I'm getting at with @rick81721

I am not saying that graph you posted is coincidence. What I am saying is this:

A. The graph wasn't going to increase forever - not statistically possibe
B. Some number of people X were going to get the vaccine

My point is that we don't really have any models on what X was going to be before the J&J pause. Did that just pause the rollout and we ended up with the same endpoint X? I have no idea. And there's no way to say what X would have been with & without the pause.

I am not going to waste my time looking for these 3 graphs of the data that was posted, broken down by vaccine manufacturer. I would be interested to see what the Pfizer one looks like.

Did J&J stopping cause an actual pause? Obviously. Did it change a considerable number of people from pro to anti? Who knows.
 
Norm said:
This is sort of what I'm getting at with @rick81721

I am not saying that graph you posted is coincidence. What I am saying is this:

A. The graph wasn't going to increase forever - not statistically possibe
B. Some number of people X were going to get the vaccine

My point is that we don't really have any models on what X was going to be before the J&J pause. Did that just pause the rollout and we ended up with the same endpoint X? I have no idea. And there's no way to say what X would have been with & without the pause.

I am not going to waste my time looking for these 3 graphs of the data that was posted, broken down by vaccine manufacturer. I would be interested to see what the Pfizer one looks like.

Did J&J stopping cause an actual pause? Obviously. Did it change a considerable number of people from pro to anti? Who knows.
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Agree the graph had to peak, then drop. My only point was why did it peak the exact day of the pause? It's either coincidence or in some part causal. Here is a poll the Washington Post did after the pause (April 18 - 21). See question 17 - are you more or less likely to get vaccinated after the J&J pause. 24% less likely, 1% more likely, 74% no difference. Looks pretty clear to me.
 

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rick81721 said:
It's either coincidence or in some part causal. Here is a poll the Washington Post did after the pause (April 18 - 21). See question 17 - are you more or less likely to get vaccinated after the J&J pause. 24% less likely, 1% more likely, 74% no difference. Looks pretty clear to me.
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I don't disagree with any of this, at all. The pause caused the peak.

You would need to do that survey today to see how many of that 24% went forward with getting a vaccine versus the percentage of the general population that got the vaccine. As an example

Let's say that poll surveyed 1000 people. So 240 said they were less likely.

Suppose they went to those 240 today and found that 60 got vaccinated for a rate of 25%.
Compare that to the percentage of unvaccinated people that have gotten the vaccine since that date. Maybe it is also 25%? or 40%?

This is all pissing in the wind because we can never know. And you may be right - that may have added a permanent -5% from the total rare across the country. I am just saying that at the end of the day, it may just be like Monkey Soup says. The people who were gonna get it, got it. And vice versa.
 
I break it down this way

I'm still not getting vaccinated 74%
I told you, Now I'm def not getting vaccinated 24%
1% seems like they are doing the right thing and science over marketing. I'm still not getting vaccinated, but I'm less likely not to.

😉
 
Norm said:
I don't disagree with any of this, at all. The pause caused the peak.

You would need to do that survey today to see how many of that 24% went forward with getting a vaccine versus the percentage of the general population that got the vaccine. As an example

Let's say that poll surveyed 1000 people. So 240 said they were less likely.

Suppose they went to those 240 today and found that 60 got vaccinated for a rate of 25%.
Compare that to the percentage of unvaccinated people that have gotten the vaccine since that date. Maybe it is also 25%? or 40%?

This is all pissing in the wind because we can never know. And you may be right - that may have added a permanent -5% from the total rare across the country. I am just saying that at the end of the day, it may just be like Monkey Soup says. The people who were gonna get it, got it. And vice versa.
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Here's an interesting aspect of that poll - question 14:

14. Have you received at least one dose of vaccine (as of April 21): 56% yes, 44% no. At that time, the US was at 40% with at least one dose, so they clearly polled a population more likely/amenable to vaccination.
 
rick81721 said:
14. Have you received at least one dose of vaccine (as of April 21): 56% yes, 44% no. At that time, the US was at 40% with at least one dose, so they clearly polled a population more likely/amenable to vaccination.
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This is interesting as it oddly counters Pat's confirmation bias thought. If they had polled (for example) people who were 16% below average (instead of 16% above) I bet that 24% would have been considerably higher.

Ok diving into this PDF you attached...

1. Good god, more people approved of Carter than Biden after 100 days by almost 10%?
2. Of the people who had not gotten the vaccine at that point, 41% generally had planned to
3. 56% had already gotten it

Ok this is interesting data

* On 1/13/21, 63% of people polled said they would probably get the vaccine
* On 4/21, 74% of the people polled had gotten it or were going to

This raises the question of who is being polled because the vaccine is now available. If 74% of adults in the US had it today this would be about over. So this tells me that people are obviously lying.

Question 18 - 73% of the people were not willing to get the J&J vaccine if put back into circulation.

Anyway...interesting stuff.
 
thegock said:
So @rick81721 hasn't explained to us all why the Florida 7DMA is 8.5x New York state.

💡, indeed.
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As Snowbird Rick and similar head north, loads of NYC people hit Disney, Universal and the beaches (Miami, Daytona, etc).
I wonder what the numbers are of out of state people entering FL in the past month? I know last year was a mess with the interstate travel restrictions, with that lifted there may be some connection.
 
GSTim said:
The question is, if the Delta variant R0 is really 2X or more than the original, what use are masks anyway?
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To limit it, we went back to double masking when we go out. Simply considering we can get it be fine but pass it to the kids is motivation enough.

My office paused return to office last week at 2 a day and I was already always masked, now they are bringing back masks at work I'm more comfortable. I have coworkers traveling to Florida and other places for vacation.

No one wants to wear a mask but I'd rather be safe than sorry.
 
Minimum Wage said:
To limit it, we went back to double masking when we go out. Simply considering we can get it be fine but pass it to the kids is motivation enough.

My office paused return to office last week at 2 a day and I was already always masked, now they are bringing back masks at work I'm more comfortable. I have coworkers traveling to Florida and other places for vacation.

No one wants to wear a mask but I'd rather be safe than sorry.
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You should consider getting vaccinated. The authorities said that if you're vaccinated you no longer need a mask.
 
1TrackMind said:
Your example reminds me of when I changed the oil in my car and the next day it ran horribly. My wife was convinced I screwed something up, turns out it it was an ignition coil, but she still thinks it was me, she can’t fathom that was coincidence.
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Anyone that has worked repairing anything has had this happen to them. I fixed your kid's rear derailleur and now the front tire is flat a week later. Must've been something I did.
 
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